dmc76 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yes I know it's early but It's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Lol. Met winter doesn't even begin for 6 days. But I see your point. Keep the whining out of the serious discussion threads. EDIT: I just read the discussion thread after I posted this. Now I know why it got started. It is amazing that the b***** and moan thread did not start until January last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 So, boring pattern setting up. We should get something in two weeks (if we do get something), it will be almost middle of December, now if we don't, we will wait for another storm sometimes around the 25th of Dec, almost January, (never mind the storm never happened), let's wait until January, models are showing something around the 10th, (10th no storm), we get a lot of rain, (no worries next one will be snow) yeah right, (suppressed). It's Jan 30th, February should be fun and snowy, pattern change, (Nope, never happens), and so on we keep watching the models, time flies, and so does our life. We get older LOL...What amazes me is that I've known some of you for so long, several years, we started a while back on the ACCU forums (2007/8?), Chicago Storm is one, then whatever happened to WFRECK? LOL. Anyway you see how quickly time passes? It's just crazy... I just hope that this year does not end up like last (hopefully it will not)... BALH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Hmm, looks like the entire polar cold pool shifts onto the Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I have an awful feeling that this is going to be a back-to-back disaster for us, like 1931-32 and 1932-33. There were a number of horrible winters in the 30s come to think of it. 1936-37 was also a bust that had a chilly November like this year. Plus, it followed a really hot and dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Lol. Met winter doesn't even begin for 6 days. But I see your point. Keep the whining out of the serious discussion threads. EDIT: I just read the discussion thread after I posted this. Now I know why it got started. It is amazing that the b***** and moan thread did not start until January last winter. By last January, the complaining/whining was a bit more merited. This thread better not jinx winter because I dont ever remember having such a thread until last winter. Jokes aside though it is good to keep the whining out of other threads. The fact that this thread is started in NOVEMBER (a November thats colder than normal no less) tells me Ill bet a lot of the complaining is not only the annual November angst, but also a bit of uneasiness simply for how last winter played out (like...oh no it cant happen again...can it?). I certainly hope this thread can be looked at in March/April and laughed at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Oh boy, this thread will be a riot to read every morning over coffee. No worries, Frosty the Snow Man will drink up all of your tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Also, can we put cromartie's daily CFS maps in this thread? Or better yet, ban him? Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Oh boy, this thread will be a riot to read every morning over coffee. No worries, Frosty the Snow Man will drink up all of your tears. Yes it will! And the first CFS map has already been posted (yes, the same cfs that had us blazing in Oct and then again in Nov). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 O OUCH......! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It'll switch by mid-month, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It'll switch by mid-month, hopefully. It'll switch 10 times by mid-month. You will see an array of blues and oranges, depending on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 You know sometimes when we do get the cold air, either the storms are suppressed, or the air is way to dry. This is a picture from last year BTW...I'm hoping that it does not end up like that :/ LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think the worst part of November was the lack of significant precipitation combined with the first notable monthly negative temperature departure in well over a year. We were finally able to align a negative temperature departure with a month where it's typical to see snow storms in the midwest, but nothing to show for it. I had perused all of the cold Novembers at CLE and this one will stick out like a sore thumb. It will be the only "cold" November to not feature a snowstorm. I just wished we could have saved this cold and dry month for a mid winter or late winter month after we would have already had a chance to lay some snow on the ground. In the end, this November was a dud of a month for virtually everyone. Snow lovers barely got a flake, warministas were shut out, those who like sunny nice days were socked with clouds and fog, there was no severe weather, there was no rain. It was just a crap month where everyone was just waiting for some sort of pattern to flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This thread is gonna get a workout over the next week+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The best part is the confusion why the AO is as low as it is, but the 500mb jet stream is shaped as it is entering December. -AO means higher heights/warmer temps over the arctic. The PV is displaced. IIRC, it doesn't provide any indication as to where the vortex is spatially speaking. Thus -AO doesn't necessary mean the cold is located over your house. Simplistic but that's the way I understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think the worst part of November was the lack of significant precipitation combined with the first notable monthly negative temperature departure in well over a year. We were finally able to align a negative temperature departure with a month where it's typical to see snow storms in the midwest, but nothing to show for it. I had perused all of the cold Novembers at CLE and this one will stick out like a sore thumb. It will be the only "cold" November to not feature a snowstorm. I just wished we could have saved this cold and dry month for a mid winter or late winter month after we would have already had a chance to lay some snow on the ground. In the end, this November was a dud of a month for virtually everyone. Snow lovers barely got a flake, warministas were shut out, those who like sunny nice days were socked with clouds and fog, there was no severe weather, there was no rain. It was just a crap month where everyone was just waiting for some sort of pattern to flip. Hmm....I wonder if a lot of those "snowstorms" were LES? This November at DTW will be colder than normal but certainly not top 20 material, and just looking at some cold Novembers, many of them got by with little fanfare. I didnt even look at all cold Novembers, just a quick glance at our 20 coldest, and 5 of them had LESS than 1.5". Our 2nd coldest Nov on record, saw just 1.4" of snow which came in the form of a few dustings (largest 0.5"). Our 7th coldest Nov, 1967, also featured just 1.4" of snow....9th coldest, 1995, just 1.3" of snow. Our 15th coldest Nov, 1910, had just a trace of snow, and our 19th coldest, 1929, had just 1.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 That +EPO in the GFS long range is the killer, promotes zonal flow and the crappy storminess over the west which usually pumps a ridge up in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 -AO means higher heights/warmer temps over the arctic. The PV is displaced. IIRC, it doesn't provide any indication as to where the vortex is spatially speaking. Thus -AO doesn't necessary mean the cold is located over your house. Simplistic but that's the way I understand it. Yes the AOwas very negative in 2009-2010 and it didn't benefit us one iota up in Ontario. Quite the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not this again, it isn't even December yet... Complain about winter when it is half over ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 There are several good points made on this rant thread. I definitely feel uneasy after last winter's train wreck. I think it makes sense that people are on edge about whether we will actually have a winter. Things often need to line up "just right" to get some good winter action. As we can see from certain posts about the AO and EPO and MJO and NAO and PNA and all the other letters of the alphabet, there is often "something wrong" that prohibits us from getting snow. Besides the winter of '10-'11, there have been more junk patterns than exciting ones (at least for Michigan/upper Midwest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 There are several good points made on this rant thread. I definitely feel uneasy after last winter's train wreck. I think it makes sense that people are on edge about whether we will actually have a winter. Things often need to line up "just right" to get some good winter action. As we can see from certain posts about the AO and EPO and MJO and NAO and PNA and all the other letters of the alphabet, there is often "something wrong" that prohibits us from getting snow. Besides the winter of '10-'11, there have been more junk patterns than exciting ones (at least for Michigan/upper Midwest) Thinking back to school...say you fail a test, when the next test comes along, you are very worried thinking of the F on that last test, even though you had As and Bs on all the other tests during the year, you cant shake your nervousness. The days leading up to the test leave you a wreck, even though you know the material, then you take and pass the test. See? No reason to let one bad grade ruin your schoolyear. Bottom line, I understand the nervousness, but it doesnt make sense that people are actually on edge whether we will have a winter. Its a COMPLETE misunderstanding of climo and weather patterns. Im going to broadbrush the region as a whole rather than get into individual stats. This region has seen way, way, WAY more snowfall than it climatologically should have the last 5 years. There were a few small screwzones here and there, but by and large WAY more snow has been falling in this part of the country than is normal. So to say we were due for such a disaster winter like last year is an understatement. But some people are facetiously acting like winter doesn't exist anymore because we had ONE crappy winter, and that is complete nonsense. If ANYTHING, look back at all the crappy winters over the decades (and there have been many), and the odds OVERWHELMINGLY favor an average to snowier than average winter the next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Thinking back to school...say you fail a test, when the next test comes along, you are very worried thinking of the F on that last test, even though you had As and Bs on all the other tests during the year, you cant shake your nervousness. The days leading up to the test leave you a wreck, even though you know the material, then you take and pass the test. See? No reason to let one bad grade ruin your schoolyear. Bottom line, I understand the nervousness, but it doesnt make sense that people are actually on edge whether we will have a winter. Its a COMPLETE misunderstanding of climo and weather patterns. Im going to broadbrush the region as a whole rather than get into individual stats. This region has seen way, way, WAY more snowfall than it climatologically should have the last 5 years. There were a few small screwzones here and there, but by and large WAY more snow has been falling in this part of the country than is normal. So to say we were due for such a disaster winter like last year is an understatement. But some people are facetiously acting like winter doesn't exist anymore because we had ONE crappy winter, and that is complete nonsense. If ANYTHING, look back at all the crappy winters over the decades (and there have been many), and the odds OVERWHELMINGLY favor an average to snowier than average winter the next year. I had a feeling you might respond. I always appreciate your optimism. As you said, I guess it depends on certain smaller regions. Most of Michigan, outside of your area in southeast Michigan, has had a few craptastic winters over the past several years. I know you have heard me say it before: the Muskegon area and up through upper lower Michigan have had several poor winters. I guess one can look at it though and say we are just experiencing the less snowy side of average...around here that means seeing a 50-70 inch winter in comparison to 120-140 inch winter! So a less snowy winter can be major crap when compared to a great winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I had a feeling you might respond. I always appreciate your optimism. As you said, I guess it depends on certain smaller regions. Most of Michigan, outside of your area in southeast Michigan, has had a few craptastic winters over the past several years. I know you have heard me say it before: the Muskegon area and up through upper lower Michigan have had several poor winters. I guess one can look at it though and say we are just experiencing the less snowy side of average...around here that means seeing a 50-70 inch winter in comparison to 120-140 inch winter! So a less snowy winter can be major crap when compared to a great winter! All 3 sites in SE MI have been running way above normal (DTW, MBS, FNT) the last 5 years, and MQT hasnt been doing bad either. For some reason the Soo has been doing horrible...and yes I have noticed deficits in Muskegan...and I dont know why. Especially doesnt make sense for you (being in southern MI) since each side of the lake (MKE/ORD...DTW/TOL) have had surpluses. Must be a lack of lake effect snow. I love going up north, do it nearly every winter, and trust me I KNOW how important winter tourism is...but its hard for me to feel sorry that that area has had snowfall deficits while Ive had surpluses, but yet it is they who still have a nice blanket of snow covering the ground all winter, every winter. Obviously thats part of their climo, but snowcover is my soapbox, so yeah lol. Heres to a better winter in Muskegan and everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 **** me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not this again, it isn't even December yet... Complain about winter when it is half over ok? Especially when folks in the long range thread have came with a bit of good news in the last 24-36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not this again, it isn't even December yet... Complain about winter when it is half over ok? I know you mean well, but the discussion (or complaining or whatever) here is completely segregated from the rest of the subforum. If people want to complain, they should be able to freely complain here. And if people don't want to read that kind of thing, which is perfectly understandable, they don't have to, simply by staying out. And let me tell you something. If the mid-December-ish pattern change falls flat on its face and I'm still waiting for my first inch of snow as we approach Christmas, I'm going to proceed to make a couple of unpleasant posts in this thread. I hope you'll bear with me, notwithstanding the fact winter will not be half over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I know you mean well, but the discussion (or complaining or whatever) here is completely segregated from the rest of the subforum. If people want to complain, they should be able to freely complain here. And if people don't want to read that kind of thing, which is perfectly understandable, they don't have to, simply by staying out. And let me tell you something. If the mid-December-ish pattern change falls flat on its face and I'm still waiting for my first inch of snow as we approach Christmas, I'm going to proceed to make a couple of unpleasant posts in this thread. I hope you'll bear with me, notwithstanding the fact winter will not be half over. If this happens I will be in the same boat as you, back-loaded winter or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If this happens I will be in the same boat as you, back-loaded winter or not. Glad to know I'll have company. Descending into insanity is always done better in pairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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