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DISCUSSION ONLY: Snow/rain/slopfest potential Tuesday 11/27/2012

famartin

By famartin,
in Philadelphia Region

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Parsley

Parsley

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the gfs though is a heck of a lot warmer in the lower levels and would deff have rain from dyl to lansdale to downingtown area south. Its all mute right now. You just gotta now cast and watch your temps and esp from surface to 925mb, that is the problem area. It will snow where it wants to snow tomorrow. For sure though, their will definitely be surprises for the good or bad like their always is for storms.

So, are you up in Gilbertsville permanently now? That'd help tomorrow.

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famartin

famartin

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the gfs though is a heck of a lot warmer in the lower levels and would deff have rain from dyl to lansdale to downingtown area south. Its all mute right now. You just gotta now cast and watch your temps and esp from surface to 925mb, that is the problem area. It will snow where it wants to snow tomorrow. For sure though, their will definitely be surprises for the good or bad like their always is for storms.

The last storm certain emphasized just how good and bad those surprises could be.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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the gfs though is a heck of a lot warmer in the lower levels and would deff have rain from dyl to lansdale to downingtown area south. Its all mute right now. You just gotta now cast and watch your temps and esp from surface to 925mb, that is the problem area. It will snow where it wants to snow tomorrow. For sure though, their will definitely be surprises for the good or bad like their always is for storms.

What's your call for the Wayne/Villanova area? My thinking is conservatively around 2", with the best case scenario being around 4". Very dependent upon if we can get the hvy bands, but if it does precipitate steadily, I'm not too concerned about the temp profile here. Soundings look supportive for accum in the 400ft+ areas.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

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What's your call for the Wayne/Villanova area? My thinking is conservatively around 2", with the best case scenario being around 4". Very dependent upon if we can get the hvy bands, but if it does precipitate steadily, I'm not too concerned about the temp profile here. Soundings look supportive for accum in the 400ft+ areas.

It all depends, if the nams perception is right i would say atleast 2-3 inches. If the gfs is correct id say not much at all. If the euro is correct coating to an inch. I do agree though, our elevation will help out if it does snow. Also will be key to how fast we drop tonight and how long the clouds hold off.

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MGorse

MGorse

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My original point was probably stated the wrong way... as if challenging the NWS. I was not...

I would have liked to see a 1-3" with locally higher amounts wording as opposed to "up to two to three inches" which is much more definitive and a be-all-end-all

Not sure if you saw our total snowfall map. It has ranges on it. The WSW product covers a large area.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

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RGEM and NAM keep upping the qpf which makes me think they are on too something. This might be a lot like the last storm when we compare the outcome. It seems as if banding is going to set up somewhere and clobber a relatively small area; which the globals aren't picking up on. It seems as if all the high-res models are in pretty good agreement. Should be interesting to see what happens...Something has gotta give; seems like an all or nothing type event for most of the area IMO.

Some places are still going to hit 5". I would hate to have to make a forecast for I-95 on this one.

SN_000-048_0000.gif

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tombo82685

tombo82685

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RGEM and NAM keep upping the qpf which makes me think they are on too something. This might be a lot like the last storm when we compare the outcome. It seems as if banding is going to set up somewhere and clobber a relatively small area; which the globals aren't picking up on. It seems as if all the high-res models are in pretty good agreement. Should be interesting to see what happens...Something has gotta give; seems like an all or nothing type event for most of the area IMO.

Even if you cut these totals in half, some places are still going to hit 5". I would hate to have to make a forecast for I-95 on this one.

SN_000-048_0000.gif

Just so people know, that scale is in MM. So 2.5 mm is about .1 qpf. On a standard 10-1 ratio that would be an inch of snow. On this storm cut that in half or a quarter.

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famartin

famartin

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RGEM and NAM keep upping the qpf which makes me think they are on too something. This might be a lot like the last storm when we compare the outcome. It seems as if banding is going to set up somewhere and clobber a relatively small area; which the globals aren't picking up on. It seems as if all the high-res models are in pretty good agreement. Should be interesting to see what happens...Something has gotta give; seems like an all or nothing type event for most of the area IMO.

Some places are still going to hit 5". I would hate to have to make a forecast for I-95 on this one.

SN_000-048_0000.gif

Thats millimeters. So the green bullseye is 1-1.5 cm of snow equivalent. And remember, it counts nothing for ratios, just how much falls as snow. Gotta factor in lower ratios with the warm BL. So I'd chop that down to 0.5-1 cm of snow water, which would mean 2-4".

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

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Thats millimeters. So the green bullseye is 1-1.5 cm of snow equivalent. And remember, it counts nothing for ratios, just how much falls as snow. Gotta factor in lower ratios with the warm BL. So I'd chop that down to 0.5-1 cm of snow water, which would mean 2-4".

Yup I missed that at first glance, but yeah this model actually came in pretty warm, it actually showed a decent amount of qpf as mixing. The NAM is more friendly for snow lovers. I still think that there is a narrow band of 3-6" somewhere in eastern PA, with a widespread area of 1-3".

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Dropped from 46 to 41 since the sun has gone down..

Wonder how far we can drop before clouds roll in, forecast for central monmouth county is a low of 35 degrees..

We'll probably radiate until about midnight-2am, when the mid/high level clouds roll in. Most suburban temps should be well down into the 30s once clouds arrive; urban locations probably upper 30s.

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phlwx

phlwx

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Yup I missed that at first glance, but yeah this model actually came in pretty warm, it actually showed a decent amount of qpf as mixing. The NAM is more friendly for snow lovers. I still think that there is a narrow band of 3-6" somewhere in eastern PA, with a widespread area of 1-3".

6? Based on the NAM when all other models don't suggest this?

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