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DISCUSSION ONLY: Snow/rain/slopfest potential Tuesday 11/27/2012

famartin

By famartin,
in Philadelphia Region

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MGorse

MGorse

Posted
Posted

Seems like there is enough support for a solution wetter than the GFS to be a little more bullish on snow around TTN... so right now I'll lean that it will probably snow, but also mix with or change to rain at possibly several occasions. Accumulations probably a coating or less, but an inch or two is not completely out of the question.

A pinpoint forecast? wink.png

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dssbss

dssbss

Posted
Posted

...SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SNOW AND SOME RAIN TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AT THAT TIME.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 400 AM UNTIL 700 PM TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONO REGION, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS. ALSO THE NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF HUNTERDON AND WARREN. * HAZARD TYPE...MAINLY SNOW, MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO TWO OR THREE INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME STEADY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SNOW IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. * IMPACTS...DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, THE SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AND WALKWAYS CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, ANY SNOWFALL MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE AS TEMPERATURES FALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH MAINLY FROM 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING, RISING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY EVENING. * VISIBILITIES...THE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN SNOW.

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famartin

famartin

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Posted

NAM actually seems colder at surface....could get interesting...Its all about rates, whoever has the heaviest bands consistently over them might fair out okay.

It is all about rates. The 12Z NAM soundings actually went back and forth from rain/snow mix to snow at TTN. The 18Z is mostly snow now. Of course, they're right under the main band. NAM will probably muck up the placement details but I can see someone getting a half inch of QPF. Don't think it will be as widespread as the NAM depicts, though. Now, watch me be wrong :axe:

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Parsley

Parsley

Posted
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It is all about rates. The 12Z NAM soundings actually went back and forth from rain/snow mix to snow at TTN. The 18Z is mostly snow now. Of course, they're right under the main band. NAM will probably muck up the placement details but I can see someone getting a half inch of QPF. Don't think it will be as widespread as the NAM depicts, though. Now, watch me be wrong axesmiley.png

Lol, bust potential is huge again in our area. Gotta love it. Low expectations with hopes of a surprise in terms of my thinking.

No way I get burnt 2x in a row. hotdog.gif

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

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Wishing all you guys up there the best of luck tomorrow. After the early November disaster in PA, this would be a nice little hit from sun up to sun down tomorrow. Fortunately, the sun is almost as weak as it can get, and with the recent cold mornings, I'm hopeful that more will stick than not, especially in any moderate and greater bands.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
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Lol, bust potential is huge again in our area. Gotta love it. Low expectations with hopes of a surprise in terms of my thinking.

No way I get burnt 2x in a row. hotdog.gif

this time the bust may be a reverse?

gotta love needle threaders.

(FWIW, I think the NAM's QPF is probably twice of reality).

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tombo82685

tombo82685

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Compared to last storm my expectations have been super low, and gradually, but quietly the models have trended better throughout the day...shhh don't tell anyone. I live in NE Philly but I might rent a motel in Bucks county because I'm such a nutjob.

why wouldnt you just drive there? Its not like its a 5 hr drive.

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