DISCUSSION ONLY: Snow/rain/slopfest potential Tuesday 11/27/2012

[Voyager]

Not to jinx it for Voyager, but this is looking good for the Lehigh Valley.

I've got the Berlin Wall...oops...Blue Mountain (and 30 miles) separating me from the Lehigh Valley. It's going to be close if what you guys are discussing happens. Well see I guess.

[HM]

Comparing the 00z, 06z and 12z NAMs, the best UVV's definetely are trending north away from Philly metro (as they slide west to east across our subforum). Like you said, if you can't get under those for a few hours, you'll have a repeat of what we saw in early November across SE PA.

Check out the difference at 15z at 700mb Tuesday, between the 00z NAM and 12z NAM.

and once again here in NW Monmouth County we are sitting right on the rain/snow line, yet the colder air always seems to win out here in these situations. As long as the intensity of the precip picks up, we 'may' be ok here for an inch or two.

The differential cyclonic vorticity advection is stronger on the NAM but even it agrees with the less impressive globals that the max area is north. Suggesting that colder air usually wins in these situations is based on the usual fronto forcing / ageostrophic component which won't be here this time in the same force as 11/7.

I'd rather see the vort max further south and stronger than any modeled solution right now.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

The differential cyclonic vorticity advection is stronger on the NAM but even it agrees with the less impressive globals that the max area is north. Suggesting that colder air usually wins in these situations is based on the usual fronto forcing / ageostrophic component which won't be here this time in the same force as 11/7.

I'd rather see the vort max further south and stronger than any modeled solution right now.

Awesome thanks HM. Yeah we needed this storm to trend stronger regardless in order to help us out down the road too as you have stated in another post. We appreciate your input. Keep up the great work.

[Snow_Miser]

The 12z NAM run is very nice anywhere from C NJ to the NW Burbs of Philly.

0.6-0.8" of pcpn is snow for these regions per the Cool WX Accumulated Precip Type graphics.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

I wonder if the GFS will finally cave to the NAM. I think they meet somewhere in between, IMO the GFS is definitely under doing this system. I think there will end up being a 3-6" swath around that area then NAM is showing as the jackpot. Regardless, it is November and I would certainly be happy with just an inch haha.

[Quakertown needs snow]

Be sure your son does his home work tonight...

fixed.

[Snow_Miser]

The main difference that I'm seeing between the 12z GFS/NAM is that the GFS seems to be focusing more on the coastal system, whereas the NAM seems to be focusing on the overruning precipitation.

NAM is of course wetter than the GFS as well.

[Snow_Miser]

The 12z GFS looks to be the wettest yet with this system, though not by much:

[Snow_Miser]

The 12z RGEM looks very nice for the NW Suburbs of Philly into C NJ as well.

R/S line looks to be just NW of I-95.

Not sure how much precipitation this is when all is set and done, but it's a decent amount for the area.

This run is also colder and NW of the 00z run.

[easternsnowman]

It looks like areas to the west and north of philly make out the best with elevation being the key. Chester county and elevated areas to the west of the city will do ok..

[Heisy]

For Philly, I think we see a quick burst of snow/sleet, changes quickly to rain with some snow mixed in, and then basically a relative mix for entire storm...little to no accumulation, once you get to N Bucks and the burbs should be interesting.

[Parsley]

The 12z RGEM looks very nice for the NW Suburbs of Philly into C NJ as well.

R/S line looks to be just NW of I-95.

Not sure how much precipitation this is when all is set and done, but it's a decent amount for the area.

Looks like it's painting anywhere from 0.20"- just under 0.40" across eastern PA and Jersey.

[Heisy]

GGEM looks similar, Philly on R/S line

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Bobby EPAWA]

Although this would be nice, and call me the skeptic, I really don't see it. These HI RES models are probably double of what will be the actual IMO. It may have the bullseye area defined well, but still not liking anything outside of WWA criteria across the board. 1-3" general swath, lollipops to 4" maybe. Best chance for that I-78 corridor to a point 20 miles S of I-78 in PA.

[dryslotted]

GGEM looks similar, Philly on R/S line

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

At this point, even the weeniest of weenies has to submit to the fact that best case is we (Philly S&E) see some flakes fly for a while. If this were December, I would be disappointed, but it's not...

[Heisy]

I have a soft spot for this model, the Suny MM5, FWIW.

[Boreal]

I have a soft spot for this model, the Suny MM5, FWIW.

Re: "soft spot"--me too, I liked how it handled the December 30, 2000 Millennium Storm.

[Eskimo Joe]

New event. Winter Weather Advisory from 11/27/2012 12:00 AM to 1:00 PM EST for Lancaster County. More information.

[Parsley]

12z Euro is juicier (atleast somewhat) than 00z..............based on what I've heard.

[Bobby EPAWA]

12z Euro is juicier (atleast somewhat) than 00z..............based on what I've heard.

It is... much juicier, and would back up the 2-4" with locally higher amounts in the current NWS/CCX winter weather advisory areas.

[TropicalWX]

NJ TRANSIT will offer systemwide cross-honoring (rail, bus, light rail) on Tuesday, November 27, due to expected winter weather conditions.

[Ellinwood]

Map's probably a bit generous, but we'll see. My forecast brings the 1" line into the NW Philly burbs:

[Heisy]

Ellingwood looks perfect...

[anthonyweather]

Hey guys hopefully ill be of some use to ya's this winter! I got hired as a plow operator for penndot, I'll be out of the schnecksville area shed

[ravensrule]

Hey guys hopefully ill be of some use to ya's this winter! I got hired as a plow operator for penndot, I'll be out of the schnecksville area shed

Congrats on getting the job.

[Parsley]

Hey guys hopefully ill be of some use to ya's this winter! I got hired as a plow operator for penndot, I'll be out of the schnecksville area shed

congrats!

[greg ralls]

Hey guys hopefully ill be of some use to ya's this winter! I got hired as a plow operator for penndot, I'll be out of the schnecksville area shed

Congratulations! If you get down to Perkiomen Woods in Collegeville, don't run over the guy cross-country skiing, becuase it will most likely be me!

[chubbs]

Hey guys hopefully ill be of some use to ya's this winter! I got hired as a plow operator for penndot, I'll be out of the schnecksville area shed

Hope you get a lot of work this winter!

[am19psu]

Map's probably a bit generous, but we'll see. My forecast brings the 1" line into the NW Philly burbs:

Aggressive.

[famartin]

Seems like there is enough support for a solution wetter than the GFS to be a little more bullish on snow around TTN... so right now I'll lean that it will probably snow, but also mix with or change to rain at possibly several occasions. Accumulations probably a coating or less, but an inch or two is not completely out of the question.