DISCUSSION ONLY: Snow/rain/slopfest potential Tuesday 11/27/2012

[tombo82685]

Yup. The burns from the event earlier this month still sting me.

now you know how ray feels when the nam progs him to get 3-6 and he gets 3-6 snow flakes and watches the mtns eat it up.

[Heisy]

Do you guys think it will help that moisture arrives before dawn?

[tombo82685]

weenie map with 10-1 ratios

map with incorporated ratios

[famartin]

now you know how ray feels when the nam progs him to get 3-6 and he gets 3-6 snow flakes and watches the mtns eat it up.

You have no idea how true this is.

[Isotherm]

I'm talking about those calling this storm "nothing" if it doesn't snow in their backyard. 00z NAM implies this storm is "something" for parts of the area.

Lets see what the GFS/Euro have to say. I trust NOTHING after what occured 3 weeks ago (this early in the season).

Since this system's moving WSW-ENE, it's going to be difficult for NJ to steal the show this time at least. My main concern is getting pcpn hvy enough to cool the column for accum. Temps aloft are supportive if we can get some stronger vv's up in here.

[tombo82685]

Do you guys think it will help that moisture arrives before dawn?

heck yes, it wont allow the temps to rise. Plus if it comes before dawn you could start accum process, which would be harder if the sun was up.

[tombo82685]

Since this system's moving WSW-ENE, it's going to be difficult for NJ to steal the show this time at least. My main concern is getting pcpn hvy enough to cool the column for accum. Temps aloft are supportive if we can get some stronger vv's up in here.

also, the timing is better with this storm. What hurt last time was the precip started at noon or after, when temps were around 40. If it starts in the morn temps would be low to mid 30s.

[famartin]

West of Philly it appears more likely to start before dawn. In NJ it may start after.

[dan88]

GFS is coming in more amplified then 12z or 18z

[Cary]

Yup. The burns from the event earlier this month still sting me.

Dude, it all melted a day or two later.

[famartin]

Dude, it all melted a day or two later.

I know that wouldn't matter to me

[tombo82685]

West of Philly it appears more likely to start before dawn. In NJ it may start after.

yea, west def has the better shot...newet gfs, 0z has it in before 12z on the gfs for phl.

[famartin]

yea, west def has the better shot...newet gfs, 0z has it in before 12z on the gfs for phl.

Not much different from before, GFS is the fastest (and EC is the slowest).

[tombo82685]

new gfs bumps up qpf, .25-.5 del river west and pa turnpike south...though no where near the nam...probably .25-.35 in that highlighted area. It warmer in the bl layer though than 18z which is obv since it was stronger.

[famartin]

GFS does not impress me. Just doesn't want to cool down the low levels. Precip looks too light. Guestimating from the maps it looks like the GFS takes 4-5 hours to drop 0.09" at TTN. That's not going to cut it. Then only 0.12" falls in the next 6 hours. Also not going to cut it.

Rates are only slightly better at PHL with only 0.12" from ~7Z-12Z and 0.13" from 12Z-18Z. 0.01-0.03" an hour just won't do it along I-95 proper.

[Bobby EPAWA]

GFS does not impress me. Just doesn't want to cool down the low levels. Precip looks too light. Guestimating from the maps it looks like the GFS takes 4-5 hours to drop 0.09" at TTN. That's not going to cut it. Then only 0.12" falls in the next 6 hours. Also not going to cut it.

Rates are only slightly better at PHL with only 0.12" from ~7Z-12Z and 0.13" from 12Z-18Z. 0.01-0.03" an hour just won't do it along I-95 proper.

But.... and to be the spokesman for the Lehigh Valley... we STILL are the winners verbatim to this run, although 'winning' being 2-3" that isn't saying much...

[tombo82685]

GFS does not impress me. Just doesn't want to cool down the low levels. Precip looks too light. Guestimating from the maps it looks like the GFS takes 4-5 hours to drop 0.09" at TTN. That's not going to cut it. Then only 0.12" falls in the next 6 hours. Also not going to cut it.

Rates are only slightly better at PHL with only 0.12" from ~7Z-12Z and 0.13" from 12Z-18Z. 0.01-0.03" an hour just won't do it along I-95 proper.

the gfs isnt even saturating the lowest 2500 ft in its soundings which is weird. Plus if it was saturated the wetbulb would support snow.

[famartin]

But.... and to be the spokesman for the Lehigh Valley... we STILL are the winners verbatim to this run, although 'winning' being 2-3" that isn't saying much...

Probably more like 1-2". ABE gets 0.18" total but its still 33F at the surface at 12Z.

[famartin]

the gfs isnt even saturating the lowest 2500 ft in its soundings which is weird

Yeah, but even assuming it is (following that blue/purple line down) its still 34 at the surface. Non-accumulating snow.

[tombo82685]

Yeah, but even assuming it is (following that blue/purple line down) its still 34 at the surface. Non-accumulating snow.

thats all the nam was to, but it had heavier rates which would allow for some slight accum.

[Bobby EPAWA]

Probably more like 1-2". ABE gets 0.18" total but its still 33F at the surface at 12Z.

My question to you is, given that observational data that is now onshore with the energy that will become our s/w, and is now integrated into the 00z suite, is this the be-all-end-all for the QPF totals? Or will there be a correction at 12z? My bets are this is it....

[famartin]

My question to you is, given that observational data that is now onshore with the energy that will become our s/w, and is now integrated into the 00z suite, is this the be-all-end-all for the QPF totals? Or will there be a correction at 12z? My bets are this is it....

It'll wiggle back and forth. It always does.

[Heisy]

At least the Day 10+ GFS offers some hope.

[NaoPos]

great disco guys, even if its only for a flizzard!!!

honestly, im not impressed. timing of the day sucks, swfe are over rated, and precip rates are comical. i'd be happy with a dusting.

[Parsley]

Dude, it all melted a day or two later.

From a meteorological standpoint, it was a monster bust for me personally. It wasn't about what did or did not fall in my backyard, it's the fact I bought into the models so badly, I feel embarrassed in the wake up that storm for what I anticipated across our entire area.

[Parsley]

great disco guys, even if its only for a flizzard!!!

honestly, im not impressed. timing of the day sucks, swfe are over rated, and precip rates are comical. i'd be happy with a dusting.

Yup, if I wake up to a sloppy, slushy snow falling Tuesday morning, it's a win for November 27th.

I think areas above 500' in elevation could pick up 2 or 3 inches (max). Those of us under 500' will struggle for an inch or more......maybe

[famartin]

From a meteorological standpoint, it was a monster bust for me personally. It wasn't about what did or did not fall in my backyard, it's the fact I bought into the models so badly, I feel embarrassed in the wake up that storm for what I anticipated across our entire area.

Most of us got fooled. I felt really dumb when I told a friend of mine down in southern Ocean County that it would be mainly rain. That worked out... NOT!

[Bobby EPAWA]

great disco guys, even if its only for a flizzard!!!

honestly, im not impressed. timing of the day sucks, swfe are over rated, and precip rates are comical. i'd be happy with a dusting.

Given that it is the first snowfall of the year, and November, I'll take it and run... hopefully a sign of things to come.

[mattinpa]

I see no reason why we can't see a couple inches out here. And I would take it in November.

[NaoPos]

Euro is about .1-.25".......