DISCUSSION ONLY: Snow/rain/slopfest potential Tuesday 11/27/2012

[famartin]

Just to your east in Monmouth County again??

Yes, just 2300 miles to my east again

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Yes, just 2300 miles to my east again

ha ha ha I think your parents need to move out of Mercer County. Either that or you need to move back east. ha ha ha

[famartin]

it has to be very rare tracking a 2nd snow event for the area and still november

I think the last time Allentown had 2 legit snow events in November was 1967. For Philly, it was 1938. Of course, this year there technically hasn't been one yet.

[tombo82685]

new nam is a good bit wetter, but warmer for the immediate phl area. qpf in the .25-.5 range

[famartin]

new nam is a good bit wetter, but warmer for the immediate phl area. qpf in the .25-.5 range

The surface is so torchy. Freezing level at TTN is way up at 950 mb (~2000 feet). No way that's anything but rain along I-95.

[Heisy]

The surface is so torchy. Freezing level at TTN is way up at 950 mb (~2000 feet). No way that's anything but rain along I-95.

Yea it seems if we get heavier precip its too warm and if its cold enough we get no QPF, this storm will be nothing.

[tombo82685]

The surface is so torchy. Freezing level at TTN is way up at 950 mb (~2000 feet). No way that's anything but rain along I-95.

yep, at phl the frz level is above 925...the nam has been running warmer than both the gfs and euro...will be interesting to see which wins.

[famartin]

Yea it seems if we get heavier precip its too warm and if its cold enough we get no QPF, this storm will be nothing.

I'm not going to say it will be nothing, we've certainly seen needles threaded before (hell, just a few weeks ago). I will say, however, that I'm not at all enthused for much accumulation along I-95.

[Voyager]

Going to be? I think its been looking that way for awhile....but really its not like you're missing out on 2"/hr and thundersnow here.

This is true.

[tombo82685]

Yea it seems if we get heavier precip its too warm and if its cold enough we get no QPF, this storm will be nothing.

for 95 yes...but in the reading to dyl to downingtown area could accumulate a couple inches.

[famartin]

yep, at phl the frz level is above 925...the nam has been running warmer than both the gfs and euro...will be interesting to see which wins.

Even the "cold" EC still has a freezing level a bit more than 1000 feet above the surface, which means it would be really tough for it to stick along I-95.

[tombo82685]

Even the "cold" EC still has a freezing level a bit more than 1000 feet above the surface, which means it would be really tough for it to stick along I-95.

yea,without elev or distance from 95 it wont be much...thankfully i will be at work up 500 ft...muahahha.

[tombo82685]

Even the "cold" EC still has a freezing level a bit more than 1000 feet above the surface, which means it would be really tough for it to stick along I-95.

thats hr 45, thats not really to bad honestly and thats in camden area...only issue is the surface which is around 34 or 35...based on that would be a snow that doesnt stick

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

[tombo82685]

skew t for the wayne area, pretty good honestly

[famartin]

thats hr 45, thats not really to bad honestly and thats in camden area...only issue is the surface which is around 34 or 35...based on that would be a snow that doesnt stick

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

Ah... yeah should've looked at the 3-hour time steps... doh.

Yeah that's probably snow. Probably some dynamical/evaporative cooling going on with heavier banding.

[tombo82685]

Ah... yeah should've looked at the 3-hour time steps... doh.

Yeah that's probably snow. Probably some dynamical/evaporative cooling going on with heavier banding.

hr 42 is pretty warm for phl to ttn, but you just go nw from their, aka my work which is like 10 miles and its a dif story...my call would be c-1 for 95...1-2 nw

[tombo82685]

Ah... yeah should've looked at the 3-hour time steps... doh.

Yeah that's probably snow. Probably some dynamical/evaporative cooling going on with heavier banding.

this is hr 42 for the phl area, you can see the little bulge around 925mb, its pretty isothermal though...probably rain with a little snow. Then once heavier banding comes in cools it a little more.

[Isotherm]

hr 42 is pretty warm for phl to ttn, but you just go nw from their, aka my work which is like 10 miles and its a dif story...my call would be c-1 for 95...1-2 nw

This has the look of being one of those events where we're 32-33F and accumulating while PHL is 34-35F with non-accumulating wet snow. Amazing how much 400-500ft can do in marginal set-ups. Will be interesting to see what happens, nothing set in stone yet.

[famartin]

This has the look of being one of those events where we're 32-33F and accumulating while PHL is 34-35F with non-accumulating wet snow. Amazing how much 400-500ft can do in marginal set-ups. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Taking the NAM verbatim, this looks like a situation where the best accumulations would be due west of PHL.

[tombo82685]

qpf from 0z nam

phl .53

ukt .49

lns .66

pne .54

ttn .51

nxx ,55

rdg .55

abe .35

ptw .59

lom .57

[Heisy]

We also have to consider that sometimes the NAM overamps QPF right before an event...could be one of those runs.

[tombo82685]

just going off soundings for nam, best snow would be from ukt to nxx to lom to central chester county to lns to reading back to ukt

[tombo82685]

We also have to consider that sometimes the NAM overamps QPF right before an event...could be one of those runs.

very true, will be interesting to see gfs.. though, 21z srefs had .25-.5 qpf as well as 18z gefs.

[Parsley]

Remember guys, there is more to this subforum than just PHL and towns along I-95.

The far northwest burbs could cash in on a 00Z NAM scenario.

[tombo82685]

Remember guys, there is more to this subforum than just PHL and towns along I-95.

The far northwest burbs could cash in on a 00Z NAM scenario.

yes we know...but they are snow nothing to discuss their. the issue is in and around 95 where its a toss up.

[Parsley]

yes we know...but they are snow nothing to discuss their. the issue is in and around 95 where its a toss up.

I'm talking about those calling this storm "nothing" if it doesn't snow in their backyard. 00z NAM implies this storm is "something" for parts of the area.

Lets see what the GFS/Euro have to say. I trust NOTHING after what occured 3 weeks ago (this early in the season).

[Heisy]

I'm talking about those calling this storm "nothing" if it doesn't snow in their backyard. 00z NAM implies this storm is "something" for parts of the area.

Lets see what the GFS/Euro have to say. I trust NOTHING after what occured 3 weeks ago (this early in the season).

yeah I apologize for the words I should of added I meant nothing for Philly itself.

[tombo82685]

I'm talking about those calling this storm "nothing" if it doesn't snow in their backyard. 00z NAM implies this storm is "something" for parts of the area.

Lets see what the GFS/Euro have to say. I trust NOTHING after what occured 3 weeks ago (this early in the season).

i wouldnt either. these marginal setups are always finicky.

[Parsley]

yeah I apologize for the words I should of added I meant nothing for Philly itself.

Yeah, just gotta be careful especially since most of the posters in this subforum actually live in the northwest burbs.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid=205847873714487456895.0004a900b7b82a7608289

It's good having you here though, you provide great insight with the models and your ideas.

[Parsley]

i wouldnt either. these marginal setups are always finicky.

Yup. The burns from the event earlier this month still sting me.