DISCUSSION ONLY: Snow/rain/slopfest potential Tuesday 11/27/2012

[Heisy]

Yea HRRR gets good withing 6-8hrs,itcan pick up some good mesoscale bands

[tombo82685]

just looking at the last vis sat loop, looks like high clouds should start entering western portions around 11 or midnight

[dssbss]

Just a question...I know we often have Virga storms around here. Is the air dry right now? I know I have been getting lots of static shocks today. Could this erode some of our precip? Will the evaporational cooling help our temp situation?

[famartin]

Just a question...I know we often have Virga storms around here. Is the air dry right now? I know I have been getting lots of static shocks today. Could this erode some of our precip? Will the evaporational cooling help our temp situation?

Yes yes and yes. But its about as dry as it was before 11/7.

[dssbss]

Yes yes and yes. But its about as dry as it was before 11/7.

Thanks!

[tombo82685]

Just a question...I know we often have Virga storms around here. Is the air dry right now? I know I have been getting lots of static shocks today. Could this erode some of our precip? Will the evaporational cooling help our temp situation?

Its a little dry, but its not like how it is before major winter storms. If we had drier air in place phl would be all snow, shows a deeper cold air source.

Here is abe skew t, their is some dry air, but you need that to wet bulb down, but its not horrible

[famartin]

It still has to moisten that layer between 600 and 850. Surface dews are in the lows 20s, which counts for something. We'll have to see what temps do tonight. Lakehurst just hit freezing while its still 46 at PHL.

Its a little dry, but its not like how it is before major winter storms. If we had drier air in place phl would be all snow, shows a deeper cold air source.

Here is abe skew t, their is some dry air, but you need that to wet bulb down, but its not horrible

[tombo82685]

It still has to moisten that layer between 600 and 850. Surface dews are in the lows 20s, which counts for something. We'll have to see what temps do tonight. Lakehurst just hit freezing while its still 46 at PHL.

that skew t was right now, i changed it to an hr or 2 before the storm and its not as dry, prob due to the influx of some southerly winds.

[famartin]

that skew t was right now, i changed it to an hr or 2 before the storm and its not as dry, prob due to the influx of some southerly winds.

Or because the storm is already moistening it up by that point

[tombo82685]

Or because the storm is already moistening it up by that point

i was just going off the sim radar and it didnt have any reflectivity over the area.

[famartin]

i was just going off the sim radar and it didnt have any reflectivity over the area.

Does that sim radar pick up virga? I wonder if its just trying to show where precip is falling and its intensity, as if a radar was right next to it.

[tombo82685]

Does that sim radar pick up virga? I wonder if its just trying to show where precip is falling and its intensity, as if a radar was right next to it.

the one i posted earlier had virga over it picked up by the sim radar. This is the skew t and sim radar for abe... drier than what i originalll showed, but its not as dry as what it is now. So im assuming the southerly winds just above surface may moisten it up?

[Quakertown needs snow]

.

[Bobby EPAWA]

I thought the 250mb jet was favorable for a less VIRGA set-up... did that change?

[Isotherm]

This is the weenie tracking map to keep an eye on -- sfc wet bulb temps. Right now most of us are around 33-34F with the freezing wet bulb line near ABE.

[tombo82685]

This is the weenie tracking map to keep an eye on -- sfc wet bulb temps. Right now most of us are around 33-34F with the freezing wet bulb line near ABE.

this is also another map people should watch

[Boreal]

.

Re: that Map. Ha. Talk about being thrown a bone. BTW, isn't about time you start posting some radar loops, etc.. on the obs page? Always look forward to that.

[Parsley]

Current radar matching up pretty nicely with the best UVV's (across the lower Ohio River Valley) shown on the models for 00z this evening.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It looks like the NAM is holding it's ground with the wetter solution. Nice little hit for parts of the area.

[tombo82685]

It looks like the NAM is holding it's ground with the wetter solution. Nice little hit for parts of the area.

yep, over .5 qpf from phl to abe, on west to lns and due east to nyc and central jerz coast area.

[dan88]

21z SREF

[Ralph Wiggum]

yep, over .5 qpf from phl to abe, on west to lns and due east to nyc and central jerz coast area.

0Z NAM

[Ralph Wiggum]

SREF looks just like the NAM

[famartin]

Taking ratios into account (guessing something near 5:1), the NAM realistically is probably 2-4" for TTN.

Taking into account the NAM excessive QPF, *maybe* 1-3 for TTN.

[tombo82685]

the nam 4km nested grid off sv, shows some epic banding over the immediate phl area. Though i would take the qpf totals and slash it by 75% lol

[tombo82685]

this is for ray, sv's 4km nested nam accum precip

[hazwoper]

Holy crap Tom! Is that showing over 1" in some areas?

[tombo82685]

Holy crap Tom! Is that showing over 1" in some areas?

lol yes, actually 1.75-2 in the yellow. And thats 1inch over pretty much the whole area hahaa.

[hazwoper]

Actually in many areas. 1.75" lollys. Weenie indeed

[famartin]

NAM has really ramped up the LLJ.