Hailstorm Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 You know an epic winter is incoming when record cold temps are already being discussed in November. But in all seriousness, irregardless if NYC records a below-zero temp this winter, I strongly believe that NYC will have its first Wind Chill Warning (wind chill below -25*F) issued this winter which hasn't happened in decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That one really cold day in January had well timed cold. It just wasn't cold enough. Look back at the threads, the 850s did not align overnight on the 2 coldest days. Particularity on the 4 degree day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Look back at the threads, the 850s did not align overnight on the 2 coldest days. Particularity on the 4 degree day. Didn't we bottom out at -23C 850s? That's not going to cut it around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Anyone have the daily temp. record for CPK from about Nov. 21---Dec. 31, 1989. I thought that at the time this period was referred to as the coldest final 6 week conclusion to any year on record. There was about 4" of snow near Thanksgiving too. We did not know it then, but as the ball dropped NYE, the temps. were on the way up and winter was basically a no-show disappointment for the next 60 days, or at least it seemed anti-climatic I think. Can anyone verify this? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Anyone have the daily temp. record for CPK from about Nov. 21---Dec. 31, 1989. I thought that at the time this period was referred to as the coldest final 6 week conclusion to any year on record. There was about 4" of snow near Thanksgiving too. We did not know it then, but as the ball dropped NYE, the temps. were on the way up and winter was basically a no-show disappointment for the next 60 days, or at least it seemed anti-climatic I think. Can anyone verify this? Thanks. It was one of the coldest Decembers on record particularly from the 21-29 before the warmup started. However it was a month full of major disappointments with very little snow.. missed storms..4-8" of snow that instead brought us a driving rain storm on the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Anyone have the daily temp. record for CPK from about Nov. 21---Dec. 31, 1989. I thought that at the time this period was referred to as the coldest final 6 week conclusion to any year on record. There was about 4" of snow near Thanksgiving too. We did not know it then, but as the ball dropped NYE, the temps. were on the way up and winter was basically a no-show disappointment for the next 60 days, or at least it seemed anti-climatic I think. Can anyone verify this? Thanks. I think 1917 and 1876 were colder... 4.7" White Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It was one of the coldest Decembers on record particularly from the 21-29 before the warmup started. However it was a month full of major disappointments with very little snow.. missed storms..4-8" of snow that instead brought us a driving rain storm on the 15thIncredible turnaround from Dec to Jan... Jan temps averaged 15 degrees warmer than Dec, with Dec being the coldest on record here and Jan the warmest (since 1976) also had 6" of snow on thanksgiving here in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Incredible turnaround from Dec to Jan... Jan temps averaged 15 degrees warmer than Dec, with Dec being the coldest on record here and Jan the warmest (since 1976) also had 6" of snow on thanksgiving here in 1989. KNYC was 15.5 degrees higher on average in January 1990...That is the biggest spread for winter months on record...Dec/Jan years with a warmer Jan... year.........Dec...Jan...difference 1989-90...25.9...41.4...+15.5 1910-11...30.0...36.6...+6.6 2005-06...35.3...40.9...+5.6 1963-64...31.2...35.7...+4.5 1890-91...29.9...33.8...+3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 attached is audio of Joe Sobel's Accuweather report on WINS when the temp dipped to -1 on Jan 17, 1977 19770117WINSJoeSobel.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 attached is audio of Joe Sobel's Accuweather report on WINS when the temp dipped to -1 on Jan 17, 1977 That was the coldest month I've recorded here since 1976 with a mean of 20.6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 attached is audio of Joe Sobel's Accuweather report on WINS when the temp dipped to -1 on Jan 17, 1977 that was great...thanks for the memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Here are the annual minimum temperatures at Central Park since 1950 with the 5 degrees or lower years bolded: Year....Annual Minimum Temperature 2014...42013...112012...132011...62010..132009...62008..102007...82006...152005...52004...12003..72002..192001...162000...31999...91998...141997...41996...51995...61994...-21993...71992...111991...101990...71989...61988...51987...41986...81985...-21984...81983..41982...01981...21980...-11979...01978...101977...-21976...-11975...151974...61973...71972...51971...41970...31969...111968...-11967...41966...81965...91964...91963...-21962....41961...-21960...81959...71958...31957...01956...141955...01954...71953...141952...81951...81950...5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 from 1975-76 to 1984-85 NYC hit zero or lower six times in ten years...this came at the end of the tiny ice age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 why is it so "unbelievable" now to see that sort of cold now in the city? Because of the AGW and climate change and CO2 increase? Come on guys, we just havent had the favorable set up to get that cold but this is still something that can happen down here. I think UHI plays a much bigger role. In the 1800's really only Manhattan was urbanized. While the rural areas had fewer trees they were still not urban. Now urbanization stretches from Washington up to Boston with a few breaks, and inland as far as the eastern third of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. AGW? Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We really saw a rise in winter low temperatures in NYC since the cold wave in January 2004. Winter....Low Temperature 2004-2005.....5 2005-2006....14 2006-2007.....8 2007-2008....10 2008-2009....6 2009-2010...13 2010-2011....6 2011-2012...13 512.png What about last winter, when we made, I believe, 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Even if there was a midnight high to me it doesn't count. The temperature failed to reach zero during the daylight hours when the sun was up. Just because a cold front didn't make it in time to drop them below zero before midnight doesn't take away from the incredible cold that resulted during the day. Midnight highs drive me crazy now too, when referring to the temp record. During the time near the solstice the sun has very little impact. Nighttime highs are commom elnough that they cannot entirely be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What about last winter, when we made, I believe, 4? Maybe bc you're quoting posts from 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Maybe bc you're quoting posts from 2012? True. I made a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 bump for end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 bump for end of next week If the 12z GFS is anywhere near correct, NYC will finally get to zero: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What an epic stretch that 12/29-1/4 1917-18 was... There was a thaw for a few days right after that cold streak and then it turned very cold again. My father was born in February, 1918. Many years ago, when I was a kid, my grandmother told me of when she was pregnant with my dad (in Brooklyn). She told of it being very cold and then it warmed up for a bit before everything froze up again when she was eight months pregnant. She fell on the ice then and was very worried that she'd lose her baby. Thank God she didn't (lose her baby) or else I wouldn't be here. Anyway, I had once looked up the weather reports for that period and they backed up my grandmother's story. I love when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If the 12z GFS is anywhere near correct, NYC will finally get to zero: nyczero.gif The 12z ECMWF also has a subzero reading. It still remains to be seen whether such a temperature occurs. The last subzero reading in NYC occurred on 1/19/1994 (-2°). The last February subzero reading occurred on 2/2/1961 (-2°). It should be noted that in the 2000s, a disproportionate share of extreme cold (single digit lows) has occurred in January. Since January 1, 2000, 37/40 (93%) of days with single-digit lows occurred in January. Put another way, there were 12.3 January single-digit readings for every February single-digit reading. Last winter was the first time February had such a reading since 2007. In contrast, the 1900-1999 period saw greater balance. During that period, 182/374 (51%) of single-digit days fell in January and 137/374 (37%) occurred in February. There were 1.3 single-digit days in January for every February single-digit day. In short, a single-digit reading (which seems quite likely from this far out) would be fairly remarkable. Such a temperature would result in consecutive years in which the temperature fell below 10° in February for the first time since 1993-1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the euro shows 850 temps bottoming out at around -22C on friday and that's not going to cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 zero is not impossible but not happening...time and time again this winter extreme cold was in the long range only to come in modified...record lows are still below zero during that time...2003 has the most impressive cold morning of 8 degrees with cloudy skies on the 16th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 the euro shows 850 temps bottoming out at around -22C on friday and that's not going to cut it NYC had -24c 850 temps with the strong CAA earlier this year and the city struggled to drop below 10 degrees. Forky, do you think there needs to be strong north winds for the city to get below zero since the city doesn't radiate well at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Another ultimate heat Island night going on. 26 at cpk. 18 at farmingdale and 2 at west Hampton beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 NYC had -24c 850 temps with the strong CAA earlier this year and the city struggled to drop below 10 degrees. Forky, do you think there needs to be strong north winds for the city to get below zero since the city doesn't radiate well at all? You are missing the most obvious factor: NYC didn't have any snow cover when they had those -24C 850s. Snow cover can affect nighttime minimum temperatures by as much as 10F. Obviously, Central Park will not dip below 0F without any snow cover. That should go without saying. This time, there will probably be 6-10" of snow on the ground. North winds are important but snowpack is far more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 You are missing the most obvious factor: NYC didn't have any snow cover when they had those -24C 850s. Snow cover can affect nighttime minimum temperatures by as much as 10F. Obviously, Central Park will not dip below 0F without any snow cover. That should go without saying. This time, there will probably be 6-10" of snow on the ground. North winds are important but snowpack is far more so. True. I definitely forgot about the lack of snow cover. Still NYC would have ending up somewhere in the single digits that night in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 True. I definitely forgot about the lack of snow cover. Still NYC would have ending up somewhere in the single digits that night in all likelihood. One thing that's important is the freshness of the snow cover...that's why we want this storm to dump a few inches in NYC, and then to have a strong arctic front bring in the powerful 1050mb high to set the stage for zero-degree weather. A solid base topped by a few fresh inches from a clipper/arctic FROPA can go a long ways towards allowing for temperatures to dip. Old snow has an albedo range from 0.4-0.8, whereas new snow has an albedo range from 0.8-0.9. Given the urban heat island and generally warming climate, a lot of factors have to go right for NYC to get below zero. The first is the aforementioned snow cover...they didn't hit 0F in early January 2015 because of the lack of any snow. The second is the time of day...January 7, 2014 didn't hit zero either because the coldest 850s occurred during the daytime hours, in the morning, instead of at night. The third is wind direction: it's really hard for Central Park to hit zero if winds are more W or WNW...due north down the Hudson Valley allows for better cold air drainage and less downsloping. Finally, 850s have been marginal in the last few outbreaks...850mb temperatures were near -30C for the huge arctic shot in January 1994, but more recent outbreaks that have failed to hit zero have had 850s in the -22C to -24C range, which won't do it unless conditions are absolutely perfect. Recent runs of the GFS have shown the follow-up arctic outbreak having 850s near -30C, so I'm a little more enthused, even if we fail on Friday. Some people say it's impossible for NYC to ever hit 0F again, which is obviously false. But you need a lot of things to line up correctly, and they haven't in recent years. That doesn't take away from the fact that several recent arctic outbreaks have been impressive...Maine set its all time coldest temperatures in January 2009, and Oklahoma did so in February 2011. So the cold air still exists, but maybe it's a bit less common, along with the many other "luck factors" mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Last 0 degree day here was Jan 2004...last below 0 was Jan 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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