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Potential November 27th Event


nj2va

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This is a program called weatherscope...Created the map myself....Basically my thinking is, south of the red line (dewpoint 32F line), your already done for the chance of snow accum...this will likely still rise north...Best chance of accum will be north of wet bulb line 32f (green) that will probably drop slightly south.

post-2017-0-88509900-1353997674_thumb.jp

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SmartCast Update 27/06Z – 28/06Z

Tracking initial snowfall accumulations of 1.3 to 1.6” across the PA areas through 28/06Z.

Harrisburg Area: Looking for snowfall to begin by 09Z, with increasing intensity of snow through the next 24 hours. Looking at a period of moderate snow from 13Z-18Z, with the heaviest burst of snow around 15-16Z. Temperatures will be hovering right around the 32/33F mark through 01Z. Accumulations of around 1.5” possible

Lancaster: Looking from snowfall to begin around 10Z, with some strong burst of snow between 15Z and 21Z. Accumulations of around 1.3” possible.

Allentown: Looking for snow to begin around 11Z, with moderate snow burst from 13Z to 20Z, visbilities will be down to a mile with .5” per hour snow rates. Accumulations of 1.6” possible.

My snowfall output for PA/NY areas uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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I love getting snow obs from PA while we get drizzle!

I've wondered about that cause they have two forums of their own....phl and the PA/NY one that has a thread for central PA but seem to prefer our forum even though I think for those near Lancaster and Harrisburg , the other forums are closer to them. Anyway, no surprises concerning the sister, the models prety much said it would be too warm for snow in the DC, Baltimore area clear back to Lessburg and Frederick and that's what we've got.

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I've wondered about that cause they have two forums of their own....phl and the PA/NY one that has a thread for central PA but seem to prefer our forum even though I think for those near Lancaster and Harrisburg , the other forums are closer to them. Anyway, no surprises concerning the sister, the models prety much said it would be too warm for snow in the DC, Baltimore area clear back to Lessburg and Frederick and that's what we've got.

I think it's important to keep in mind that thousands of people make the commute everyday south on

I-83 into the Baltimore area from York County (and there are no shortage of folks that commute into MD via 140, 30 and 97). That area is a suburb of Baltimore now and posting about the weather in those areas is no better/worse than posting about the weather in WV.

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Even at my home, at 1000 ft only 5 miles south of the PA border it was all rain overnight, with only some mixing with sleet when it was really coming down heavy...when I left for work around 7:15 it was still 36 degrees and pouring. We wasted at least .3 of liquid on rain...shame just a few degrees and it would have been a nice event. I am in Baltimore now, but according to my neighbor it has flipped to very wet snow, still no sticking...might eek out a coating if this last band can produce heavy rates but mostly a non event even in the northern MD hills.

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