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Potential November 27th Event


nj2va

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SmartCast Update 27/06Z – 28/06Z

Tracking initial snowfall accumulations of 1.3 to 1.6” across the PA areas through 28/06Z.

Harrisburg Area: Looking for snowfall to begin by 09Z, with increasing intensity of snow through the next 24 hours. Looking at a period of moderate snow from 13Z-18Z, with the heaviest burst of snow around 15-16Z. Temperatures will be hovering right around the 32/33F mark through 01Z. Accumulations of around 1.5” possible

Lancaster: Looking from snowfall to begin around 10Z, with some strong burst of snow between 15Z and 21Z. Accumulations of around 1.3” possible.

Allentown: Looking for snow to begin around 11Z, with moderate snow burst from 13Z to 20Z, visbilities will be down to a mile with .5” per hour snow rates. Accumulations of 1.6” possible.

My snowfall output for PA/NY areas uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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I love getting snow obs from PA while we get drizzle!

I've wondered about that cause they have two forums of their own....phl and the PA/NY one that has a thread for central PA but seem to prefer our forum even though I think for those near Lancaster and Harrisburg , the other forums are closer to them. Anyway, no surprises concerning the sister, the models prety much said it would be too warm for snow in the DC, Baltimore area clear back to Lessburg and Frederick and that's what we've got.

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I've wondered about that cause they have two forums of their own....phl and the PA/NY one that has a thread for central PA but seem to prefer our forum even though I think for those near Lancaster and Harrisburg , the other forums are closer to them. Anyway, no surprises concerning the sister, the models prety much said it would be too warm for snow in the DC, Baltimore area clear back to Lessburg and Frederick and that's what we've got.

I think it's important to keep in mind that thousands of people make the commute everyday south on

I-83 into the Baltimore area from York County (and there are no shortage of folks that commute into MD via 140, 30 and 97). That area is a suburb of Baltimore now and posting about the weather in those areas is no better/worse than posting about the weather in WV.

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Even at my home, at 1000 ft only 5 miles south of the PA border it was all rain overnight, with only some mixing with sleet when it was really coming down heavy...when I left for work around 7:15 it was still 36 degrees and pouring. We wasted at least .3 of liquid on rain...shame just a few degrees and it would have been a nice event. I am in Baltimore now, but according to my neighbor it has flipped to very wet snow, still no sticking...might eek out a coating if this last band can produce heavy rates but mostly a non event even in the northern MD hills.

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It has been snowing in Winchester for about 2 hours. Light. At times the flakes have been fairly fat. Of course it is too warm, and the precip too light to even think about accumulation. A couple of our teachers who live in WV (Capon Bridge) had snow on their cars. I had slush on my truck when I went out to leave this morning. I'm guessing that there's snow at the higher elevations.

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It has been snowing in Winchester for about 2 hours. Light. At times the flakes have been fairly fat. Of course it is too warm, and the precip too light to even think about accumulation. A couple of our teachers who live in WV (Capon Bridge) had snow on their cars. I had slush on my truck when I went out to leave this morning. I'm guessing that there's snow at the higher elevations.

Funny. I have elevation N/W of Winchester and no slush up here. Just rain with some wet flakes mixed in. Crazy how weather can be so different just within a few miles. Its part of what makes this hobby fun.

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Maybe Im wrong, but I would beg to argue that into MD and VA, high elevation is not a big deal here...I would think the colder valleys are the people who may have had some slush this morning, temps there dropped faster before the cloud cover last night and I would think would of been slower to rise this morning, This was an overrunning event so therefore, higher elevations would warm faster...No? If my thinking is flawed sorry.

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Maybe Im wrong, but I would beg to argue that into MD and VA, high elevation is not a big deal here...I would think the colder valleys are the people who may have had some slush this morning, temps there dropped faster before the cloud cover last night and I would think would of been slower to rise this morning, This was an overrunning event so therefore, higher elevations would warm faster...No? If my thinking is flawed sorry.

This is true, but there was enough warm air advection and reflected longwave radiation to warm those valleys up just above freezing 33-34°F. If either one of things hadn't of occurred we'd be dealing with a freezing rain event in the valleys for the first hour or two. The reason why elevations are doing better in this event is because they wet-bulbed sooner and lower since they had slightly lower dew points to begin with. It's that extra hour and a half or so of being bulbed that puts them an inch above the rest.

Anyhow, Even I got the shaft where I am because we got caught between bands and ended up with drizzle and flurries. Managed to just get the top of the grass white, but even that is disappearing since our temp is rising with no dynamic cooling to keep us wet-bulbed.

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