wxmeddler Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 As I thought might happen.. The low valleys within 25 miles of the M/D line are cooling off faster than the higher level areas and now have a chance at ZR once the precip moves in. Looking around the wundermap stations in valleys are now in running 29-31 and the exposed areas are now 33-39. Here at Millersville we're sitting at 31 and steady while a station about 7 miles away and at an elevation of 600ft is 39°F FWIW, the MD-DOT road sensor is reading 27°F at the major intersection in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 idk, the trajectory of the heaviest stripe of qpf looks like it is south of where the NAM places it http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 yes, it is quite the outlier at times. I will say though that it has some backup tonight. When KFDK reported 36 degrees, my home station (Davis Vantage Vue) said 42F. I figured it was another error but as I was coming through downtown around East St, my car read 35F. When I got home 3 miles away, my car read 40F when my Davis said 41F. Odd...I'm at a higher elevation so maybe there is some inversion going on over a couple hundred feet? Either way, I'm sitting at 40.9F at 9:20 PM as are other local stations near me. Many are in the low 30s including the MDDOT station about 6 miles from me (and we're often the same temp). Yeah, quite a bit of micro-climating (a word?...sure why not). I drove the 3.5mi to Wegmans, where it was 39 on the Tahoe's temp gauge, but it was 35 pulling back into my lot. Pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 this thing really was close to being a stronger storm eyeballing the water vapor loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 9p temps/wet bulb (blue) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Dulles soundings at 7PM http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Jeez it is cold on the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's not a storm until mitch posts the water vapor loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 idk, the trajectory of the heaviest stripe of qpf looks like it is south of where the NAM places it http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php Let the radar hallucinations begin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's not a storm until mitch posts the water vapor loop. at least you noticed how I found a way to do it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's not a storm until mitch posts the water vapor loop. back in the day of vortmax, wv loops were the only guidance from 3 days out. every now and then you find howard off somewhere trying to do that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Let the radar hallucinations begin . meh, it will just be more rain, but the bulk of the precip does seem to be focused south of where the NAM has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 meh, it will just be more rain, but the bulk of the precip does seem to be focused south of where the NAM has it the nam is bunk. at least for those up north getting excited. it's probably nam'ing up the precip as usual. cut it in half and divide by 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 meh, it will just be more rain, but the bulk of the precip does seem to be focused south of where the NAM has it Might give us a chance of a stray flake if we can get in the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 the nam is bunk. at least for those up north getting excited. it's probably nam'ing up the precip as usual. cut it in half and divide by 8. I would be shocked if anyone saw more than 4" from this and even that will be in a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Temp drop has leveled off here, with some area stations beginning to rise now. 35.8 in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 the nam is bunk. at least for those up north getting excited. it's probably nam'ing up the precip as usual. cut it in half and divide by 8. frankly, I was thinking the same thing (except I wasn't dividing by 8) but didn't want to mention it fearing I'd get crushed by the cries of those to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 frankly, I was thinking the same thing (except I wasn't dividing by 8) but didn't want to mention it fearing I'd get crushed by the cries of those to our north sref doesn't really support it .. maybe a few spots to .5ish .. keeps main bulk south of long island etc. it's sort of on its own tho im sure some are throwing hour long parties in other subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 933 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012 MDZ003>005-WVZ051-271045- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.121127T0600Z-121127T1700Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MORGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER 933 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM... CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Temp down to 35F IMBY, but dews are rising as well. With the clouds coming in, looks like I'm locked and loaded for the first 33F rain of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 I just put the tree up...would be cool to get a few flakes out of this. at least we need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Sterling has a new experimental product. May as well title it the "Weenie Clock". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Updated from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 33.6 here 8 miles south of Mason Dixon line & north of westminster. I think I'll see an inch on the grass and be happy for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Temps have been stable for an hour or so at 36.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 sref doesn't really support it .. maybe a few spots to .5ish .. keeps main bulk south of long island etc. it's sort of on its own tho im sure some are throwing hour long parties in other subforums. not sure I agree... the latest SREF definitely juiced up some and trended north. If I was in places like Reading PA I would be on the lookout for a surprise...somewhere in there could get 6" I think. Over towards NYC not so sure...surface is really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Winchester (KOKV) temps up 7 degrees in the past two hours, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 not sure I agree... the latest SREF definitely juiced up some and trended north. If I was in places like Reading PA I would be on the lookout for a surprise...somewhere in there could get 6" I think. Over towards NYC not so sure...surface is really warm. i only looked at the last sref.. don't think it's quite what the nam is and was also referring to the northern areas that have much less support right now like SNE/NYC etc. that whole se pa area has been much more under the gun consistently in modeling. it's not unprecedented for a storm to over-perform to the north of here so it's not like the NAM can't be right but i would at least want to see other 0z guidance go there first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I <3 cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 i only looked at the last sref.. don't think it's quite what the nam is and was also referring to the northern areas that have much less support right now like SNE/NYC etc. that whole se pa area has been much more under the gun consistently in modeling. it's not unprecedented for a storm to over-perform to the north of here so it's not like the NAM can't be right but i would at least want to see other 0z guidance go there first. GFS is .25"+ but no 1/2" areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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