Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Nam is showing some 30-35dbz returns over Ballmer. They're gonna get smoked: Jokes aside, after taking a close look at the Nam I'm thinking I actually do get to see some flakes in the air. Sim radar looks ok. .5" line is south of the mason dixon. I'm solidly in the .25-.5 stripe. Seeing flakes fall will be a win for me. Especially considering next week is looking tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Nam is showing some 30-35dbz returns over Ballmer. They're gonna get smoked: Jokes aside, after taking a close look at the Nam I'm thinking I actually do get to see some flakes in the air. Sim radar looks ok. .5" line is south of the mason dixon. I'm solidly in the .25-.5 stripe. Seeing flakes fall will be a win for me. Especially considering next week is looking tropical. Bob, I would be stunned if you saw any flakes in Rockville. At 7Am the Twister sounding for Rockville has a 975 mb temp of plus 5.2C which is over 40 degrees and the surface temp is forecast to be right at 40 degrees according to the same NAM you were looking at. The 10 AM surface temp is 5.1C again over 40F. Even if you precip like hades I don't see it being snow where you live. By 18 it cools but still is in the upper 30s. Th NAM temps would have to be really bad and at that time range, I doubt they would bust that bad. Hope I'm wrong but the progs are strongly against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 To all you PA/Mt. Vortmax peeps.......please do post pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Today warmed more than forecast, though we should keep clear skies for at least the first few hours after dark so that might help minimize the impact. My rain better be cold. Our temps may very well fall a little faster than forecast until the clouds come in and then may actually warm a little as they radiate. I think the surface temps will be a little deceiving as the sunny day is probably warmed the temps a bit and it will be quite a bit warmer above the inversion than at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Our temps may very well fall a little faster than forecast until the clouds come in and then may actually warm a little as they radiate. I think the surface temps will be a little deceiving as the sunny day is probably warmed the temps a bit and it will be quite a bit warmer above the inversion than at the surface. I'm in a great spot for radiational cooling. But this looks like another of those nights where I drop to 31/27 by midnight, then a 5 mph wind and a cloud show up and 45 minutes later its 37/32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 IAD sounding: Quite toasty in the low levels, but also pretty dry. Still, wet bulbs are above freezing up to ~900mb. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2012&MONTH=11&FROM=2700&TO=2700&STNM=72403 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1011.0 93 7.4 -1.6 53 3.38 0 0 279.7 289.3 280.2 1007.0 125 10.2 -6.8 30 2.29 49 2 282.8 289.6 283.2 1002.0 165 10.6 -6.4 30 2.37 110 5 283.6 290.6 284.0 1000.0 181 10.6 -6.4 30 2.38 135 6 283.8 290.8 284.2 985.1 305 9.6 -6.6 31 2.37 155 9 284.0 291.0 284.4 949.3 610 7.1 -7.2 35 2.36 165 6 284.5 291.5 284.9 925.0 824 5.4 -7.6 39 2.34 180 7 284.8 291.8 285.2 914.8 914 4.7 -7.8 40 2.34 185 7 285.0 292.0 285.4 880.9 1219 2.4 -8.3 45 2.33 230 12 285.7 292.7 286.1 850.0 1508 0.2 -8.8 51 2.32 255 16 286.3 293.3 286.8 816.4 1829 -2.3 -9.9 56 2.22 270 19 287.0 293.7 287.4 803.0 1961 -3.3 -10.3 58 2.18 276 26 287.3 293.9 287.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Interesting there are not many clouds out ahead of this and temps have cooled into the 30s. Wet bulbs below freezing now in some northern areas. NRN Maryland may have a shot at more frozen than expected assuming 850s aren't as warm as the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 8PM OBS (Last hour temp in parentheses) BWI: 39/29 (42) DCA: 47/28 (49) IAD: 37/27 (41) MTN: 37/32 (39) FDK: 30/30 (34) HGR: 38/26 (42) JYO: 41/32 (41) OKV: 36/30 (37) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Interesting there are not many clouds out ahead of this and temps have cooled into the 30s. Wet bulbs below freezing now in some northern areas. NRN Maryland may have a shot at more frozen than expected assuming 850s aren't as warm as the 18z GFS. Look at the IAD sounding. It's not the surface temps or 850 temps that are the problem, it's the temps in between. They are really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'll go with the under-performing call. The fight to thirty-two doesn't look easy with such temperatures confined to northern PA for now. More worrisome, the airmass conveying the moisture is relatively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 On its face and FWIW, temps have fallen quite nicely: 3pm -- 51 6:30pm -- 41 8:30pm -- 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Towson, the university which sbos the climo analyst and I attend has dropped below 35, 34.7 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Don't ever use FDK obs. In the history of that site, it has never been remotely correct. It's 36.8 at about 60' higher elevation (not that the 60' makes a difference) where I am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Don't ever use FDK obs. In the history of that site, it has never been remotely correct. It's 36.8 at about 60' higher elevation (not that the 60' makes a difference) where I am... well it's saturated which indicates something is amiss if nothing else. also dca was 46 last hour.. 49 was 2 ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 MBY weather station shows 33.8 degrees.already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 34.2 by my house but i doubt it makes any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 51.4 degrees here. Come on snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Kinda cool watching the clouds stream in. Just moving over DC now. Some moon haloiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Instead of hoping for snow maybe the desperate should hope for ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Don't ever use FDK obs. In the history of that site, it has never been remotely correct. It's 36.8 at about 60' higher elevation (not that the 60' makes a difference) where I am... yes, it is quite the outlier at times. I will say though that it has some backup tonight. When KFDK reported 36 degrees, my home station (Davis Vantage Vue) said 42F. I figured it was another error but as I was coming through downtown around East St, my car read 35F. When I got home 3 miles away, my car read 40F when my Davis said 41F. Odd...I'm at a higher elevation so maybe there is some inversion going on over a couple hundred feet? Either way, I'm sitting at 40.9F at 9:20 PM as are other local stations near me. Many are in the low 30s including the MDDOT station about 6 miles from me (and we're often the same temp). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 yes, it is quite the outlier at times. I will say though that it has some backup tonight. When KFDK reported 36 degrees, my home station (Davis Vantage Vue) said 42F. I figured it was another error but as I was coming through downtown around East St, my car read 35F. When I got home 3 miles away, my car read 40F when my Davis said 41F. Odd...I'm at a higher elevation so maybe there is some inversion going on over a couple hundred feet? Either way, I'm sitting at 40.9F at 9:20 PM as are other local stations near me. Many are in the low 30s including the MDDOT station about 6 miles from me (and we're often the same temp). The IAd sounding showed a pretty pronounced inversion so what you were seeing is probably real. I see that alot around where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 As I thought might happen.. The low valleys within 25 miles of the M/D line are cooling off faster than the higher level areas and now have a chance at ZR once the precip moves in. Looking around the wundermap stations in valleys are now in running 29-31 and the exposed areas are now 33-39. Here at Millersville we're sitting at 31 and steady while a station about 7 miles away and at an elevation of 600ft is 39°F FWIW, the MD-DOT road sensor is reading 27°F at the major intersection in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 idk, the trajectory of the heaviest stripe of qpf looks like it is south of where the NAM places it http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 yes, it is quite the outlier at times. I will say though that it has some backup tonight. When KFDK reported 36 degrees, my home station (Davis Vantage Vue) said 42F. I figured it was another error but as I was coming through downtown around East St, my car read 35F. When I got home 3 miles away, my car read 40F when my Davis said 41F. Odd...I'm at a higher elevation so maybe there is some inversion going on over a couple hundred feet? Either way, I'm sitting at 40.9F at 9:20 PM as are other local stations near me. Many are in the low 30s including the MDDOT station about 6 miles from me (and we're often the same temp). Yeah, quite a bit of micro-climating (a word?...sure why not). I drove the 3.5mi to Wegmans, where it was 39 on the Tahoe's temp gauge, but it was 35 pulling back into my lot. Pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 this thing really was close to being a stronger storm eyeballing the water vapor loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 9p temps/wet bulb (blue) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Dulles soundings at 7PM http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Jeez it is cold on the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's not a storm until mitch posts the water vapor loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 idk, the trajectory of the heaviest stripe of qpf looks like it is south of where the NAM places it http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php Let the radar hallucinations begin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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