TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 if you must post that nonsense, post it in the banter thread, not the pinned thread. I'll think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Actually, was looking at the ens mean for some reason. Doh. 1"+ across northern MD counties,bullseye 2-3"+ across SE PA, stops a bit west of NJ. 0" for mt tolland Was about to say you always have them by now, guess Baltimore will see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 WWA north of the M/D line.......2-4" URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1243 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012 PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-270600- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.121127T0500Z-121127T1800Z/ FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS- YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG... NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON... CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 1243 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON RIDGETOPS. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE AND MID TO LATE MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. PLEASE REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSSTATECOLLEGE. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. && $$ DEVOIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I feel I might be able to eek out a few inches here just south of the PA line in northern MD. I have some elevation (1000 ft) and that helps plus the SREF has been pretty bullish on precip along the mason dixon line today. Latest 15z SREF now show an area of over .5 along the border counties in Northern MD and southern PA. Even here though temps are iffy...33-35 degrees the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It has been cold here lately. Ground was frozen last night when I was staking in Christmas decorations. If we stay all snow could be a nice mini event. I am about 10 miles north of the MD line so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It has been cold here lately. Ground was frozen last night when I was staking in Christmas decorations. If we stay all snow could be a nice mini event. I am about 10 miles north of the MD line so we will see. we usually end up with nearly identical totals from most storms, so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I'm 25 miles N of the M/D line but at 325 ft. It will be interesting to see how elevation plays in with this one as I would believe lower areas would fall below freezing quicker tonight. Last night a station at 750ft outside of town was 34° while down where I am we were sitting at 25°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Today warmed more than forecast, though we should keep clear skies for at least the first few hours after dark so that might help minimize the impact. My rain better be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 we usually end up with nearly identical totals from most storms, so we will see. Usually similar for us as well. But being a little north is gonna be a bonus with this one. Would be nice to just see some flakes falling at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Nam is showing some 30-35dbz returns over Ballmer. They're gonna get smoked: Jokes aside, after taking a close look at the Nam I'm thinking I actually do get to see some flakes in the air. Sim radar looks ok. .5" line is south of the mason dixon. I'm solidly in the .25-.5 stripe. Seeing flakes fall will be a win for me. Especially considering next week is looking tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Nam is showing some 30-35dbz returns over Ballmer. They're gonna get smoked: Jokes aside, after taking a close look at the Nam I'm thinking I actually do get to see some flakes in the air. Sim radar looks ok. .5" line is south of the mason dixon. I'm solidly in the .25-.5 stripe. Seeing flakes fall will be a win for me. Especially considering next week is looking tropical. Bob, I would be stunned if you saw any flakes in Rockville. At 7Am the Twister sounding for Rockville has a 975 mb temp of plus 5.2C which is over 40 degrees and the surface temp is forecast to be right at 40 degrees according to the same NAM you were looking at. The 10 AM surface temp is 5.1C again over 40F. Even if you precip like hades I don't see it being snow where you live. By 18 it cools but still is in the upper 30s. Th NAM temps would have to be really bad and at that time range, I doubt they would bust that bad. Hope I'm wrong but the progs are strongly against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 To all you PA/Mt. Vortmax peeps.......please do post pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Today warmed more than forecast, though we should keep clear skies for at least the first few hours after dark so that might help minimize the impact. My rain better be cold. Our temps may very well fall a little faster than forecast until the clouds come in and then may actually warm a little as they radiate. I think the surface temps will be a little deceiving as the sunny day is probably warmed the temps a bit and it will be quite a bit warmer above the inversion than at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Our temps may very well fall a little faster than forecast until the clouds come in and then may actually warm a little as they radiate. I think the surface temps will be a little deceiving as the sunny day is probably warmed the temps a bit and it will be quite a bit warmer above the inversion than at the surface. I'm in a great spot for radiational cooling. But this looks like another of those nights where I drop to 31/27 by midnight, then a 5 mph wind and a cloud show up and 45 minutes later its 37/32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 IAD sounding: Quite toasty in the low levels, but also pretty dry. Still, wet bulbs are above freezing up to ~900mb. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2012&MONTH=11&FROM=2700&TO=2700&STNM=72403 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1011.0 93 7.4 -1.6 53 3.38 0 0 279.7 289.3 280.2 1007.0 125 10.2 -6.8 30 2.29 49 2 282.8 289.6 283.2 1002.0 165 10.6 -6.4 30 2.37 110 5 283.6 290.6 284.0 1000.0 181 10.6 -6.4 30 2.38 135 6 283.8 290.8 284.2 985.1 305 9.6 -6.6 31 2.37 155 9 284.0 291.0 284.4 949.3 610 7.1 -7.2 35 2.36 165 6 284.5 291.5 284.9 925.0 824 5.4 -7.6 39 2.34 180 7 284.8 291.8 285.2 914.8 914 4.7 -7.8 40 2.34 185 7 285.0 292.0 285.4 880.9 1219 2.4 -8.3 45 2.33 230 12 285.7 292.7 286.1 850.0 1508 0.2 -8.8 51 2.32 255 16 286.3 293.3 286.8 816.4 1829 -2.3 -9.9 56 2.22 270 19 287.0 293.7 287.4 803.0 1961 -3.3 -10.3 58 2.18 276 26 287.3 293.9 287.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Interesting there are not many clouds out ahead of this and temps have cooled into the 30s. Wet bulbs below freezing now in some northern areas. NRN Maryland may have a shot at more frozen than expected assuming 850s aren't as warm as the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 8PM OBS (Last hour temp in parentheses) BWI: 39/29 (42) DCA: 47/28 (49) IAD: 37/27 (41) MTN: 37/32 (39) FDK: 30/30 (34) HGR: 38/26 (42) JYO: 41/32 (41) OKV: 36/30 (37) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Interesting there are not many clouds out ahead of this and temps have cooled into the 30s. Wet bulbs below freezing now in some northern areas. NRN Maryland may have a shot at more frozen than expected assuming 850s aren't as warm as the 18z GFS. Look at the IAD sounding. It's not the surface temps or 850 temps that are the problem, it's the temps in between. They are really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'll go with the under-performing call. The fight to thirty-two doesn't look easy with such temperatures confined to northern PA for now. More worrisome, the airmass conveying the moisture is relatively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 On its face and FWIW, temps have fallen quite nicely: 3pm -- 51 6:30pm -- 41 8:30pm -- 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Towson, the university which sbos the climo analyst and I attend has dropped below 35, 34.7 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Don't ever use FDK obs. In the history of that site, it has never been remotely correct. It's 36.8 at about 60' higher elevation (not that the 60' makes a difference) where I am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Don't ever use FDK obs. In the history of that site, it has never been remotely correct. It's 36.8 at about 60' higher elevation (not that the 60' makes a difference) where I am... well it's saturated which indicates something is amiss if nothing else. also dca was 46 last hour.. 49 was 2 ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 MBY weather station shows 33.8 degrees.already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 34.2 by my house but i doubt it makes any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 51.4 degrees here. Come on snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Kinda cool watching the clouds stream in. Just moving over DC now. Some moon haloiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Instead of hoping for snow maybe the desperate should hope for ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Don't ever use FDK obs. In the history of that site, it has never been remotely correct. It's 36.8 at about 60' higher elevation (not that the 60' makes a difference) where I am... yes, it is quite the outlier at times. I will say though that it has some backup tonight. When KFDK reported 36 degrees, my home station (Davis Vantage Vue) said 42F. I figured it was another error but as I was coming through downtown around East St, my car read 35F. When I got home 3 miles away, my car read 40F when my Davis said 41F. Odd...I'm at a higher elevation so maybe there is some inversion going on over a couple hundred feet? Either way, I'm sitting at 40.9F at 9:20 PM as are other local stations near me. Many are in the low 30s including the MDDOT station about 6 miles from me (and we're often the same temp). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 yes, it is quite the outlier at times. I will say though that it has some backup tonight. When KFDK reported 36 degrees, my home station (Davis Vantage Vue) said 42F. I figured it was another error but as I was coming through downtown around East St, my car read 35F. When I got home 3 miles away, my car read 40F when my Davis said 41F. Odd...I'm at a higher elevation so maybe there is some inversion going on over a couple hundred feet? Either way, I'm sitting at 40.9F at 9:20 PM as are other local stations near me. Many are in the low 30s including the MDDOT station about 6 miles from me (and we're often the same temp). The IAd sounding showed a pretty pronounced inversion so what you were seeing is probably real. I see that alot around where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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