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Potential November 27th Event


nj2va

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and despite this being his second winter here.

Let me clarify,

I leave for until February on the 19th. saw a rain snow mix last year. This year the same once. This is why I'm wishing for an early event sooner rather than later.

Sure it would be nice to see a storm at home, but hoping for one here as there is no promise I see one after I return.

Just saying I was hoping for one! Never did I say it was likely or probable. But naturally I have people jumping down my throat just because I'm rooting for snow. rolleyes.gif

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The NWS does have a snowmap out...1-2 inches in northern MD counties bordering PA...I think that may even be a little generous.

It gives 2-5" just north of the border..........fwiw.

Shrewsbury, PA

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 4am. Low around 30. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 36. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

http://forecast.weat...wsbury, PA, USA

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Question for anyone that knows... the SREF were recently updated with a new model the NMB to replace the old RSM runs... I am very familiar with the NMM and the ARW runs that comprise half the SREF now, but I know nothing about the new NMB. I ask because the last few runs I have noticed a definite difference between the NMM/ARW and the NMB models. The NMB runs are significantly further north then the NMM or ARW runs. The SREF average has ended up being a compromise between the NMB and the others...but I am wondering what the skill of the NMB is compared to the NMM and ARW and if those tending to be north should be viewed as significant or if it just plays into the model bias. Thanks for any thoughts/info.

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Can anyone tell me how much precip for BWI the lastest 12z EURO shows? I dont have access to pay sites and only see the 24 hr full panels...Looks like msot of the area is in the 90-100% 700mb relative humidity but I have no idea how heavy the precipitation is...?

with the quick glance I took, I would guess around .2-.3" qpf

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WWA north of the M/D line.......2-4"

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

1243 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012

PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-270600-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.121127T0500Z-121127T1800Z/

FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-

YORK-LANCASTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...

NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...

CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER

1243 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

1 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER

VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON

RIDGETOPS.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ADVISORY AREA AFTER

MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY RUSH HOUR BEFORE

TAPERING OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS FROM THE

PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE AND MID TO LATE

MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL

CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND

LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS

SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE

SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR

YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST

UPDATES.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK

PAGE...OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSSTATECOLLEGE. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

DEVOIR

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I feel I might be able to eek out a few inches here just south of the PA line in northern MD. I have some elevation (1000 ft) and that helps plus the SREF has been pretty bullish on precip along the mason dixon line today. Latest 15z SREF now show an area of over .5 along the border counties in Northern MD and southern PA. Even here though temps are iffy...33-35 degrees the whole time.

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