mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Not sure why Leesburg cold Baltimore warm and Philly cold Euro often overdoes warmth from the Chesapeake, but maybe not the case this early in the season I'm sure west of I95 is much better shape than east of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Boston zilch..maybe .06 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Leesburg looks like bullseye lol: never happen. Hgr looks good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I knew we would get some decent qpf when I saw this map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Wundergrund maps are out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Wundergrund maps are out They essentially show rain. .03 of actual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 They essentially show rain. .03 of actual snow. if this thing could just wait until 12/5, I'm sure climo by then would put us over the hump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 no comments on the colder, wetter 12z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Seems to be trending better on the NAM at a few quick glances. Sounds like the Euro was as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 no comments on the colder, wetter 12z NAM? Time of day is good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Seems to be trending better on the NAM at a few quick glances. Sounds like the Euro was as well. it's looking like many will at least see wet snow with this and the lucky ones in higher elevations will get an accumulating snow I'm happy with that for 11/27, especially considering AO and Stratosphere progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 no comments on the colder, wetter 12z NAM? Certainly wetter, but 2m temps and 2m dewpoints specifically, dont look all that great to me.....Maybe its the warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Looking like the event is going to be just a quick shot of snow Tuesday morning (models are pretty good agreement on that part)...the secondary development appears too late for here. Still, the secondary is a day 3 event, so some time for things to change. No matter what it'll be nice to see some snowflakes this early into the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Certainly wetter, but 2m temps and 2m dewpoints specifically, dont look all that great to me.....Maybe its the warm bias. 850 temps started lower than earlier runs and drop to -3C with decent precip still falling unfortunately it comes at the warmest time of the day so bl does suck this is likely going to be a non-event but we'll see some snow...admittedly, my bar is low but it's the time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 FWIW, road temps aren't the worst..... http://www.chart.state.md.us/travInfo/weatherStationData.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 FWIW, road temps aren't the worst..... http://www.chart.sta...StationData.asp I was thinking the same thing, maybe if we can get hard enough rates we can even get a little stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 it's rain Doesn't the 00z Euro and 12z NAM both call for some snow? Edited to state that your knowledge far exceeds my novice model hugging so I appreciate your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 it's rain It's around 39 at 7 Am at bwi and in the low 40s by 10Am according to the new and colder nam.... I nice cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Last run of NAM and last couple of GFS look MUCH drier to me even if it were cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It's around 39 at 7 Am at bwi and in the low 40s by 10Am according to the new and colder nam.... I nice cold rain I realize that it's always going to be colder at the 850's vs 2m's but isn't it weird to see dc well north of the 850 line with 2m temps in the low to mid 40's? We're talking a 15 degree difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It's around 39 at 7 Am at bwi and in the low 40s by 10Am according to the new and colder nam.... I nice cold rain your comparison to the 6z run with 12z being colder and wetter is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The 12z RGEM simulated radar is showing snow, i will even take snow in the air if it does not stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 not really....it is november and the boundary layer is warm I am usually 3 or 4 degrees colder than BWI so if we get good rates it is not of the question that i see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Still not excited at all by this one. My sister in HGR might see some grass and car top accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 isnt this event 11/27...I think the thread title is wrong Yes, Randy is here he can change it to the correct date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The 12z RGEM simulated radar is showing snow, i will even take snow in the air if it does not stick. that's where I am threats of at least light/mod snow events this time of year, even if they miss, are good imho because it suggests a decent storm pattern for the season and climo will improve our chances over the coming weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 i wouldnt be surprised if we go back to the euro no precip solution. oh well. that might be pushing it but it's gonna be light it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 i wouldnt be surprised if we go back to the euro no precip solution. oh well. that might be pushing it but it's gonna be light it seems. Nah, i say we get precip. It just depends where you are if it is mostly rain or it is wet snow. Far NW may get some grass accumulations. Damn you changed your post before i could quote it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Nah, i say we get precip. It just depends where you are if it is mostly rain or it is wet snow. Far NW may get some grass accumulations. Damn you changed your post before i could quote it . I looked at the soundings for Germantown and even they looked to have a surface temp of around 36 at 12Z. That's still pretty warm and would argue for no accumulation even if it were snow...a big if with light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I looked at the soundings for Germantown and even they looked to have a surface temp of around 36 at 12Z. That's still pretty warm and would argue for no accumulation even if it were snow...a big if with light precip. I meant places like Mt. Vortmax and Hagerstown, but of course you are right. Our best hope is probably some flakes flying in the air which for November 27th in our area is a big win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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