nj2va Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If we don't get anything, don't blame me for starting the thread. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro ensembles look like they would be decent for a few inches in the suburbs west of the fall line. East of there is fighting a pretty ugly boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 As usual, when the Euro and NAM have pretty good runs, the GFS follows with a turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 As usual, when the Euro and NAM have pretty good runs, the GFS follows with a turd. Strength wise yes, but it's much colder and further south fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z gfs is the usual disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Strength wise yes, but it's much colder and further south fwiw. I'd prefer the heavier rates- we did well out here on the Dec 5 2009 storm which this reminds me a little bit of concerning marginal temps... the GFS loses the upper energy for whatever reason this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I'd prefer the heavier rates- we did well out here on the Dec 5 2009 storm which this reminds me a little bit of concerning marginal temps... the GFS loses the upper energy for whatever reason this run. Ah probably just an error, 0Z should hopefully get back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z looks a good bit different at h5. Weaker and more strung out. It's not like 12z was "potent" or anything but the differences between the 2 runs are easy to see. 12z left / 18z right (hrs 90 & 84) This is actually the first time I've looked at models since Thursday morning. It was a nice break but back to business now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I'd prefer the heavier rates- we did well out here on the Dec 5 2009 storm which this reminds me a little bit of concerning marginal temps... the GFS loses the upper energy for whatever reason this run. I hear ya....My thought has just been that previously we had the strength we needed but temps were an issue. Now the temps and track have improved but we're missing out on the strength of the storm. I'd be hoping for a mix of the two, so I really didn't mind that run. It's not like any one run at this point screams "Hug Me". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 After looking at a bunch of models I'm not really that jazzed with this one at all. The vort isn't potent at all. We've seen this many times before. Things look all juicy at the surface but upstairs is kinda boring. Events like this never overperform. I couldn't really tell how strong the vort was on the euro as it passed but I'd have to assume that it looked a good bit better than the 12z gfs. If things get a little pumped up on the runs over the next couple days then it's a different story but right now I'm not seeing it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z looks a good bit different at h5. Weaker and more strung out. It's not like 12z was "potent" or anything but the differences between the 2 runs are easy to see. 12z left / 18z right (hrs 90 & 84) This is actually the first time I've looked at models since Thursday morning. It was a nice break but back to business now. lol Still gotta think that the vort needs to be more south for there to be any legit shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thanks for all the info on the up coming storm. I'm going to be heading your way Tuesday morning if this all comes to pass. From what I've gathered this is some sort of trolling but I work in upper Va near DC. So I'm trying to take advantage of your local thoughts. Thanks again to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 After looking at a bunch of models I'm not really that jazzed with this one at all. The vort isn't potent at all. We've seen this many times before. Things look all juicy at the surface but upstairs is kinda boring. Events like this never overperform. I couldn't really tell how strong the vort was on the euro as it passed but I'd have to assume that it looked a good bit better than the 12z gfs. If things get a little pumped up on the runs over the next couple days then it's a different story but right now I'm not seeing it at all. That's wahy I haven't posted much and event the euro surface is awful warm in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 thru 57 hrs, NAM colder than previous run (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 squashed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 1-2" is a lot for here but marginal temps may make that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro snowier!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Because its colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 how much qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro snowier!! Are we talking any accumulations?, what are the surface temps?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Solid 1-3 for Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 .60 qpf with temps 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Solid 2-5 for Leesburg Love you, but what about Baltimore?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 .50 in bal but warmer than leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 .50 in bal but warmer than leesburg Thanks Jay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 So I'm guessing it looks terrible for NYC/SNE then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Not sure why Leesburg cold Baltimore warm and Philly cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 NYC .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Boston zilch..maybe .06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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