earthlight Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 A better image of the 12z RGEM: And Total Snow: Pretty similar to the NAM. I'll tell you what -- someone in New Jersey could go over 10" or more for the season already if that moderate band works over an area that got hit with the last storm. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Pretty similar to the NAM. I'll tell you what -- someone in New Jersey could go over 10" or more for the season already if that moderate band works over an area that got hit with the last storm. Pretty remarkable. Some areas of NJ (colts neck, freehold), already ARE over 10"! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Euro is north and wetter when compared to last nights 00z run, although that's not much to compare against since that run gave us literally nothing. Hard to say exactly how much QPF but I would assume over .20" for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 ya based off SV maps I would estimate about .25 for NYC and at least 0.2 for most of the region. Someone might have closer to 0.4 but cant tell off maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 And those two towns you mentioned are only within 15 miles from the beach. It really is crazy to think about how well they did in a very marginal setup . Maybe cause your dealing with a wet snow situation as opposed to layers in the atmosphere cold enough for ice in the middle of winter. It just seems that we get more snow in a marginal setup earlier in the year then towards the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Euro is north and wetter when compared to last nights 00z run, although that's not much to compare against since that run gave us literally nothing. Hard to say exactly how much QPF but I would assume over .20" for most areas. Last night gave NYC .10" or less. Today's run appears to have more then doubled it to around .25". Hi-res accupro and wunderground will confirm it in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This air mass is pretty pathetic. Touching 50 degrees with 850s well below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This air mass is pretty pathetic. Touching 50 degrees with 850s well below 0. Yea I agree the low level cold air is really lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yea I agree the low level cold air is really lacking. Doesn't bode too well for tomorrow. It will be nearly impossible for places east of 287 to get any kind of accumulating snow with the precipitation rates projected for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Doesn't bode too well for tomorrow. It will be nearly impossible for places east of 287 to get any kind of accumulating snow with the precipitation rates projected for tomorrow. Yeah it's been pretty well modeled. This is why myself and a few others have been scratching our heads at those who are expecting snow because of 850 or even 925mb temperatures (which are borderline). It's going to be very difficult to accumulate snow in the city and immediate suburbs. But west of the Watchung mountains and NW of 287 I could see a few inches with a potential advisory level event in W NJ and SE PA wherever that area of locally enhanced lift sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Dewpoints in the low 20's throughout the area, humidity in the 30% range. This is a dry airmass that will radiate tonight before the clouds move in, and of course evaporitive cooling will make the pleasant feel of todays 50 degrees an illusion. I'm entirely expecting to at least see some flakes in and around the city tomorrow within the heavier bands of precip, would not be surprised if a coating to an inch dropped (on grass/soil surfaces). Question to those on the board: I have not looked at forecast soundings, but there is little talk of sleet and a lot of jibber jabber on whether or not we get snow... are the layers conducive for IP with this event where surface temperatures are marginal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I do not think people should be mad tomorrow if the snow does not stick in the city. I am expecting a rain and snow mix with a dusting to possibly an inch especially on colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Dewpoints in the low 20's throughout the area, humidity in the 30% range. This is a dry airmass that will radiate tonight before the clouds move in, and of course evaporitive cooling will make the pleasant feel of todays 50 degrees an illusion. I'm entirely expecting to at least see some flakes in and around the city tomorrow within the heavier bands of precip, would not be surprised if a coating to an inch dropped (on grass/soil surfaces). Question to those on the board: I have not looked at forecast soundings, but there is little talk of sleet and a lot of jibber jabber on whether or not we get snow... are the layers conducive for IP with this event where surface temperatures are marginal? Once the winds shift to the southeast from calm your temp will shoot up regardless of any evaporational cooling. That wind direction will also serve to raise the dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I don't like this storm because it was initially supposed to cut further west or be strong enough to create a west based -NAO. Now that is obviously off the cards. Hopefully we can salvage some snow out of it, or this storm will have really been a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I do not think people should be mad tomorrow if the snow does not stick in the city. I am expecting a rain and snow mix with a dusting to possibly an inch especially on colder surfaces. I am expecting rain showers. It will take a small miracle to accumulate 1 inch even on grass tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This air mass is pretty pathetic. Touching 50 degrees with 850s well below 0. it's november. ewr's average high is 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I am expecting rain showers. It will take a small miracle to accumulate 1 inch even on grass tomorrow. I'd be surprised if there wasn't snow falling for almost the whole area tomorrow. Especially from Central Queens and west. I would be very surprised if we do get any accumulations east of NYC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 it's november. ewr's average high is 51 What were the 850's prior to Thanksgiving? We had several days with sunshine where temps failed to get out of the low and mid 40s when highs were progged to be higher. The 5th and 6th and 14th through the 16th were pretty chilly despite the full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I don't like this storm because it was initially supposed to cut further west or be strong enough to create a west based -NAO. Now that is obviously off the cards. Hopefully we can salvage some snow out of it, or this storm will have really been a waste. Yeah, that too. Although I guess you could argue we'll be better for it a few weeks from now with the improving MJO and better signals on the Pacific and Atlantic sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 What were the 850's prior to Thanksgiving? We had several days with sunshine where temps failed to get out of the low and mid 40s when highs were progged to be higher. The 5th and 6th and 14th through the 16th were pretty chilly despite the full sunshine. above 0. we had light NE flow and that's bad for mixing. today we have deeper westerly flow here's 12z on the 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yeah, that too. Although I guess you could argue we'll be better for it a few weeks from now with the improving MJO and better signals on the Pacific and Atlantic sides. I hope you are right... While things may be different now than back in late Nov. and Dec. of 2010, if I remember correctly we were treading the needle most of that month.. I remember we all were tracking a storm mid month that didn't materialize and then boom our storm was seen by the models and the fun began and thankfully delivered by 12/26.... I would love if we could get in on a storm sometime late in December.. It's always awesome for the holidays.. We'll just have to wait and see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 above 0. we had light NE flow and that's bad for mixing. today we have deeper westerly flow Yup should have thought of the wind direction. Whenever we get cold air with west winds it's never as impressive as the 850's depict. The city didn;t even go below freezing with this latest cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This is true, but this time we have a colder airmass already in place and no strong storm to bring any warm air in off the ocean. I think that may make the difference. You do? The day before 11/7, the high was 42. Its 47 at the park right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Seems like there is enough support for a solution wetter than the GFS to be a little more bullish on snow around TTN... so right now I'll lean that it will probably snow, but also mix with or change to rain at possibly several occasions. Accumulations probably a coating or less, but an inch or two is not completely out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 NAM looks somewhat more consolidated with coastal low and heavy precip making further N/E... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 NAM still liking that band/better lift from SE PA into Central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The 18z NAM is a near carbon copy of the 12z. Once again ever so close to a widespread light snowfall. The small changes I noticed include slightly further west trough axis and just a hair more ridging upstream. The upper levels look better yet again, but the mid and low levels are unimpressive. Midday precip won't help accumulations, but as usual, if precip gets heavy it will snow and it will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 NAM has heaviest band (0.5"+) from about Rt.80 S including NYC through hr.30 with precip still falling... Popped a small band of 0.75+ from about TTN to Sandy Hook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The slight improvements this run don't really help the tristate much... but they might help get a little precip back to the Cape and Islands as the low center finally starts to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Significant improvements to the upper level jet flow and structure become obvious by hour 36, but it's too late for most except the SNE south and east coasts. But if the modeling were to make adjustments like this in the same direction a few more times, we'd be in business. I'd want to see widespread +.75 QPF on the NAM and .4 on GFS to believe that advisory snowfall might occur. I'd put odds at roughly 1 in 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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