MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z Nogaps is way more progressive then the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z Nogaps is way less progressive then the previous runs. What? Its way more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What? Its way more progressive. That's what I meant to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's what I meant to say. Yeah, quite a bit of disagreement. Light snow is a decent bet, especially toward the coast - would need to thread the needle a bit for heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah, quite a bit of disagreement. Light snow is a decent bet, especially toward the coast - would need to thread the needle a bit for heavier snow. October, November and early December snows are always thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 October, November and early December snows are always thread the needle. Early Dec. has actually been a decent time for snow in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 We're going to need this storm to trend deeper to allow for a stronger northerly flow. That would help greatly with the BL. The NAM tries to do this but it's still very borderline. It winds up doing it 6 hours too late... the DGEX lights this baby up over SNE. Those dynamics would bring warning criteria snows. One can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The 18z GEFS is wetter than the Operational. Gives a general 0.25-0.5 inches of pcpn throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 FWIW, I believe this is the RPM model for the storm system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 For reference the NAM at 18z shows a very distinct difference between the boundary layer temps along the coast and even barely inland. JFK/LGA/etc don't ever flip to snow..while areas a bit farther inland like EWR have 3-4 hours of heavy snow with better lift. Farther northwest, the thermal profile is more supportive...albeit still marginal...but areas like MMU are barely snow for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 For reference the NAM at 18z shows a very distinct difference between the boundary layer temps along the coast and even barely inland. JFK/LGA/etc don't ever flip to snow..while areas a bit farther inland like EWR have 3-4 hours of heavy snow with better lift. Farther northwest, the thermal profile is more supportive...albeit still marginal...but areas like MMU are barely snow for the entire event. Do you think the NAM is picking up on the development of a coastal front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 SREFs look pretty far south at least from the limited maps on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 SREFs look pretty far south at least from the limited maps on SV. Where do they track the mean sfc low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Where do they track the mean sfc low? It's very broad and almost hard to see on the national maps. It looks like it goes off the NC coast and then to a point quite a bit south of the benchmark at 1016mb at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It's very broad and almost hard to see on the national maps. It looks like it goes off the NC coast and then to a point quite a bit south of the benchmark at 1016mb at 84 hours. If that's the track, there will probably be almost zero qpf north of about philly. That is a terrible mean SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Of course a lot depends on how that mean SLP was generated...if there is a lot of uncertainty in the pressure field to the north, then we'd probably see mean qpf much further north than the mean track would indicate...but if there is less uncertainty to the north of that track, then that is no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 If the nam comes in significantly less amp'd then i think that's a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 SREFs out on raleigh's page...they are actually slightly better than the 15z run. There's probably a few amped members in there looking at the pressure field...esp late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Srefs have .25"-.50" of precip for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 SREFs out on raleigh's page...they are actually slightly better than the 15z run. There's probably a few amped members in there looking at the pressure field...esp late in the run. Yeah the SV maps don't let you compare with the 15z run...the maps I posted are in 12 hr increments. So I was looking compared to 09z. Good to see they're a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Srefs have .25"-.50" of precip for our area. Just want to add that the mean has NYC and the coast with surface temps of 38-42 the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 They're way better actually..looks like .50" up to NYC now. Raleigh's 24 hour precip maps show .25"-.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 You can see the SLP track I was talking about though..it goes off the carolinas and then to south of the 40/70 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/21zsref850mbTSLPp03078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Raleigh's 24 hour precip maps show .25"-.50". Lol...I'm having all kinds of problems now with my cache. Rough start to the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Lol...I'm having all kinds of problems now with my cache. Rough start to the night. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/21zsrefp24_NE087.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Here are the indies...you can see a bunch of different solutions. A few of them are pretty amped up offshore actually. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 That clipper/disturbance passing through the lakes should help supply some fresh cold air right before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 NAM is way less amped with that second vort coming through the Plains so it'll be interesting to see what happens this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Cold air not the issue...we just need the storm! Looking less amped...but still enough time for a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Cold air not the issue...we just need the storm! Looking less amped...but still enough time for a north trend Not sure if there's enough time to get the north trend again. The change in the strength of the s/w happens inside 36 hrs. This run is flat and basically stormless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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