CooL Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 JB's snow forecast. Grossly overdone as usual, IMO. When the euro has 0.50"-0.75" in what should be all snow NW of the city, this isn't overdone i think. There is going to be a strip of 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 When the euro has 0.50"-0.75" in what should be all snow NW of the city, this isn't overdone i think. There is going to be a strip of 4-8" I think 8+ is overdone. I can see 4-8 happening, but with lower than 10:1 ratios, I'm somewhat skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 FWIW, here's the 12z NOGAPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I think 8+ is overdone. I can see 4-8 happening, but with lower than 10:1 ratios, I'm somewhat skeptical. Oh i didn't know that was 8+ lol Nogaps looks juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 925mb temps are cold enough for snow on the euro for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What?? I don't think surface temps will be a problem... in my 4 years living in NYC I have only seen one event where the city got nothing while the fabled 'north and west suburbs' managed to accumulate (I believe it was in December of '09?). I think we will get a better picture of BL temps once the storm is inside the NAM's range, as it's typically one of the better models for surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Some really bad posts in this thread regarding the low level temps. Look at the forecast boundary layer. You don't get accumulating snow with 4 C temps from 950mb to the Sfc let alone see snow fall at all especially with light precip rates. The Euro also doesn't have a 2 F temp bias either, I don't know who decided to make that one up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Some really bad posts in this thread regarding the low level temps. Look at the forecast boundary layer. You don't get accumulating snow with 4 C temps from 950mb to the Sfc let alone see snow fall at all especially with light precip rates. The Euro also doesn't have a 2 F temp bias either, I don't know who decided to make that one up. A lot of people are saying that, not only on this forum. Also, the euro is the coldest out of the bunch. I don't think we should worry about surface temps until we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 A lot of people are saying that, not only on this forum. Well they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 John, where are you getting the 950 info from? My friend who has accuweather pro says that it is cold enough for all snow on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 As long as the storm starts deepening like the Euro shows though, we should be ok. Getting accumulating snow to the city is going to be a little more difficult but if the Euro is correct the immediate suburbs could see an advisory level event. The GFS remains warmer at the surface and with lighter precipitation and a weaker system we would see many areas have much more trouble cooling the column and getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 John, where are you getting the 950 info from? My friend who has accuweather pro says that it is cold enough for all snow on the coast. I was speaking about the GFS, not the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I was speaking about the GFS, not the Euro. Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Some really bad posts in this thread regarding the low level temps. Look at the forecast boundary layer. You don't get accumulating snow with 4 C temps from 950mb to the Sfc let alone see snow fall at all especially with light precip rates. The Euro also doesn't have a 2 F temp bias either, I don't know who decided to make that one up. agreed with everything you said. especially the 4C temps. i will say this though, the euro track is encouraging, there is a chance for more snow to sneak into city areas (im in nyc) than currently profiled..i do wish the cold air mass wasnt getting stale EDIT-posted this before i saw your latest post, seems like you have somewhat similar feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Take what you can, this is pretty remarkable stuff for late November to be discussing snow, Novmeber 1995 and 2002 both had solid snows and we all know what followed on... I don't think we'll get much snow out of this system, it really has to be quite heavy rates for us to stick, it is a different setup than the Nov. 7th one, that was slightly colder airmass coming in, I believe? Places like Sussex County should do well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 HWO issued by Mt. Holly: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 322 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-252030- SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 322 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLEASE LOOK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION IN THE COMING DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The 18z NAM looks more amplified than it's 12z run (which isn't really saying much considering it's 12z run did not give any precipitation to the area at all; too suppressed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The ECMWF snow maps on Accuweather Pro give a general 3-6 inches throughout NJ. Sharp cutoff near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 NAM at 81 hours, FWIW, since this is the NAM's unreliable range, but it does not look dissimilar from the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 84 Hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F24%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Surface temperatures on the NAM in C NJ look to be around 33-34 Degrees during the strongest precipitation. Very similar to the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 You can see the NAM flipping some areas to snow where the better dynamics are and the heavy precip rates...otherwise its rain near the coast and snow basically NW of 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I think it will a bit similar to the last storm. You're going to need higher rates to get accumulating snow. Another forecasting nightmare for the Mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 You can see the NAM flipping some areas to snow where the better dynamics are and the heavy precip rates...otherwise its rain near the coast and snow basically NW of 287 NAM has some snow falling in places a bit south of 287 in the frame before it changes to a cold rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The last storm saw a much more intense sfc low to the east of NJ. I think we'll see a more typical outcome for November in this event, with a wet to slushy deal for those along the coastal plain, and advisory level snows well inland (west of NYC). If we see a stronger solution w/ more pronounced vv's, then maybe something worthwhile for the coast. Right now my guess would be rain to T-2" of slush for a large part of the immediate metro area, eastward over LI and southward down CNJ. Of course even light accumulation would be impressive given how snowy this November's been already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 We're going to need this storm to trend deeper to allow for a stronger northerly flow. That would help greatly with the BL. The NAM tries to do this but it's still very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 GFS is colder and more expansive with the precip at 72 hours. Low looks sheared on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 GFS has nothing but rain and snow showers for everywhere. Much colder than 12z but way weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yep, much weaker. Looks like 0.1-0.25 inches of liquid throughout the area compared to the 12z GFS' 0.5-0.75. Pretty big difference that needs to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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