earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Agreed. The only hope is that the system cranks a bit more. Stagnant cold airmass and little advection from the north. It's unfortunate that the models seem to be agreeing on what would be an ideal track if we had a good antecedent airmass..and the airmass aloft really isn't that terrible. But in the boundary layer it's bad. We'll need the storm to deepen and if we can get some better lift we might be able to cool the thermal prof. down a bit. But I wouldn't look for any accumulations near the coast at this juncture...and any accumulations should be sloppy even in the immediate suburbs at areas like TEB and EWR. You'll probably need to go to 25 miles inland at least, if the models are correct, to find accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lower heights across the Northeast through 54 hrs already on the Euro with the system dealing with some more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lower heights across the Northeast through 54 hrs already on the Euro with the system dealing with some more confluence. looks colder compared to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Colder at 78 with precip coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Light precipitation into the area at 78 hours...plenty of cold aloft with the h85 0c line over the Central Mid-Atlantic coast...but it's still 40 degrees near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Benchmark hit at 84 hours. Moderate precip on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Nice...it deepens off the coast at 84 hours and we get moderate precipitation into the area. This is the nicest run yet...still not sold we're going to see accumulating snows away from the elevated/inland areas but this is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Benchmark hit at 84 hours. Moderate precip on the coast. It's still way southwest of the 40/70 BM at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 wow nw special 84 hr on the euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 wow nw special 84 hr on the euro.... This run is an advisory level event probably for the interior and into the immediate suburbs. Two things I would caution against would be the fact that the interior areas, that are colder, get much less precipitation...and that the coast remains warm with the 40 F contour cutting through South-Central NJ and Central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looks like a general 4-6 inches to me on the Euro. I think this one goes right to the coast and the City. Just like last time. History tends to repeat and this should follow the same general rule as the last storm for our area. Could be up to 8 inches just inland from the coast in Central NJ again also, like interior Monmouth County. Looked at soundings and they look very similar to me to the prior storm everywhere in our area. Puts down about 5.5 inches in Allentown and 7 inches in Philly. This should be all snow in those locations as well. For those of you who think that the surface looks too warm on the Euro, it did last time as well. Heck, in Asbury Park they got 3 inches with the last storm right to the coast and 13 inches just inland and the soundings had looked like it would be 42 degrees there at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looks like a general 4-6 inches to me on the Euro. Maybe inland. I would say a slop of an inch on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The surface is the only problem on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Hate to sound like a weenie, but how do the Lower levels look like for E PA/SE PA, It seems my area (SE PA) gets sandwiched between, the overrunning doesn't get far enough to bring snows, and then once the s/w passes it strengthens too late for us....Thanks in advanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Maybe inland. I would say a slop of an inch on the coast. Why is the surface so warm but the 850's arent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This run is an advisory level event probably for the interior and into the immediate suburbs. Two things I would caution against would be the fact that the interior areas, that are colder, get much less precipitation...and that the coast remains warm with the 40 F contour cutting through South-Central NJ and Central LI. the 12z euro on sv has .5+ for all over northern nj. It does start warm for the coast, looks to be wet roads for the coast. Nyc-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Why is the surface so warm but the 850's arent? Because the antecedent airmass has no surface cold air source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 0.50"-0.75" total precip for most of us in here. Precip type TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Hey, it's snowing here. The snow birds are flying early, kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Hey, it's snowing here. The snow birds are flying early, kids. lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 KTTN 12z ECMWF text: SAT 12Z 24-NOV 2.7 -8.3 1009 51 12 0.00 538 531 SAT 18Z 24-NOV 5.9 -7.5 1008 37 24 0.00 532 525 SUN 00Z 25-NOV 2.9 -7.7 1011 45 55 0.00 533 525 SUN 06Z 25-NOV 0.4 -9.5 1013 57 20 0.00 537 527 SUN 12Z 25-NOV -1.2 -5.8 1014 61 9 0.00 544 532 SUN 18Z 25-NOV 4.9 -7.0 1012 46 89 0.00 543 533 MON 00Z 26-NOV 1.1 -5.6 1014 58 63 0.00 546 535 MON 06Z 26-NOV -0.5 -5.0 1015 64 14 0.00 549 536 MON 12Z 26-NOV -0.8 -3.5 1018 68 11 0.00 551 537 MON 18Z 26-NOV 7.5 -3.4 1020 48 10 0.00 554 538 TUE 00Z 27-NOV 1.0 -3.3 1023 76 57 0.00 558 539 TUE 06Z 27-NOV -0.7 -1.9 1024 82 77 0.00 558 538 TUE 12Z 27-NOV 0.4 -3.2 1024 79 100 0.00 557 537 TUE 18Z 27-NOV 1.2 -3.4 1023 98 98 0.19 555 537 WED 00Z 28-NOV 0.8 -2.8 1020 99 99 0.40 550 534 WED 06Z 28-NOV 0.7 -4.8 1019 94 69 0.10 546 531 WED 12Z 28-NOV -3.2 -6.9 1021 93 20 0.00 542 526 WED 18Z 28-NOV 2.5 -6.3 1019 63 76 0.00 539 524 THU 00Z 29-NOV -3.3 -8.0 1021 77 10 0.00 543 526 THU 06Z 29-NOV -5.5 -7.2 1023 85 6 0.00 551 532 THU 12Z 29-NOV -6.6 -3.7 1025 88 37 0.00 555 535 THU 18Z 29-NOV 3.0 -0.7 1023 67 39 0.00 557 539 FRI 00Z 30-NOV -0.8 0.7 1021 77 38 0.00 560 543 FRI 06Z 30-NOV -1.8 -1.4 1021 81 40 0.00 560 543 FRI 12Z 30-NOV -1.0 -3.0 1027 81 52 0.00 561 539 FRI 18Z 30-NOV 0.7 -5.2 1031 40 61 0.00 560 536 SAT 00Z 01-DEC -2.3 -5.2 1034 41 71 0.00 561 534 SAT 06Z 01-DEC -5.6 -5.0 1035 43 82 0.00 561 533 SAT 12Z 01-DEC -5.8 -4.7 1038 54 73 0.00 564 535 The warmest it gets at the surface on the 12z ECMWF is 34.1 Degrees while it's precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 KTTN 12z ECMWF text: SAT 12Z 24-NOV 2.7 -8.3 1009 51 12 0.00 538 531 SAT 18Z 24-NOV 5.9 -7.5 1008 37 24 0.00 532 525 SUN 00Z 25-NOV 2.9 -7.7 1011 45 55 0.00 533 525 SUN 06Z 25-NOV 0.4 -9.5 1013 57 20 0.00 537 527 SUN 12Z 25-NOV -1.2 -5.8 1014 61 9 0.00 544 532 SUN 18Z 25-NOV 4.9 -7.0 1012 46 89 0.00 543 533 MON 00Z 26-NOV 1.1 -5.6 1014 58 63 0.00 546 535 MON 06Z 26-NOV -0.5 -5.0 1015 64 14 0.00 549 536 MON 12Z 26-NOV -0.8 -3.5 1018 68 11 0.00 551 537 MON 18Z 26-NOV 7.5 -3.4 1020 48 10 0.00 554 538 TUE 00Z 27-NOV 1.0 -3.3 1023 76 57 0.00 558 539 TUE 06Z 27-NOV -0.7 -1.9 1024 82 77 0.00 558 538 TUE 12Z 27-NOV 0.4 -3.2 1024 79 100 0.00 557 537 TUE 18Z 27-NOV 1.2 -3.4 1023 98 98 0.19 555 537 WED 00Z 28-NOV 0.8 -2.8 1020 99 99 0.40 550 534 WED 06Z 28-NOV 0.7 -4.8 1019 94 69 0.10 546 531 WED 12Z 28-NOV -3.2 -6.9 1021 93 20 0.00 542 526 WED 18Z 28-NOV 2.5 -6.3 1019 63 76 0.00 539 524 THU 00Z 29-NOV -3.3 -8.0 1021 77 10 0.00 543 526 THU 06Z 29-NOV -5.5 -7.2 1023 85 6 0.00 551 532 THU 12Z 29-NOV -6.6 -3.7 1025 88 37 0.00 555 535 THU 18Z 29-NOV 3.0 -0.7 1023 67 39 0.00 557 539 FRI 00Z 30-NOV -0.8 0.7 1021 77 38 0.00 560 543 FRI 06Z 30-NOV -1.8 -1.4 1021 81 40 0.00 560 543 FRI 12Z 30-NOV -1.0 -3.0 1027 81 52 0.00 561 539 FRI 18Z 30-NOV 0.7 -5.2 1031 40 61 0.00 560 536 SAT 00Z 01-DEC -2.3 -5.2 1034 41 71 0.00 561 534 SAT 06Z 01-DEC -5.6 -5.0 1035 43 82 0.00 561 533 SAT 12Z 01-DEC -5.8 -4.7 1038 54 73 0.00 564 535 The warmest it gets at the surface on the 12z ECMWF is 34.1 Degrees while it's precipitating. Can you do KLGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 1-3 inches on the Euro from the snowmaps on weatherunderground for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Can you do KLGA? Yes. 12z ECMWF Text for KLGA: TUE 12Z 27-NOV 3.1 -3.4 1025 72 97 0.00 556 536 TUE 18Z 27-NOV 2.8 -4.3 1023 92 99 0.12 554 535 WED 00Z 28-NOV 2.4 -3.7 1020 97 100 0.34 550 534 WED 06Z 28-NOV 2.2 -4.7 1018 93 87 0.15 545 531 WED 12Z 28-NOV 0.8 -6.4 1020 91 16 0.00 542 526 The warmest it gets up there while it precipitates is 37.0 Degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yes. 12z ECMWF Text for KLGA: TUE 12Z 27-NOV 3.1 -3.4 1025 72 97 0.00 556 536 TUE 18Z 27-NOV 2.8 -4.3 1023 92 99 0.12 554 535 WED 00Z 28-NOV 2.4 -3.7 1020 97 100 0.34 550 534 WED 06Z 28-NOV 2.2 -4.7 1018 93 87 0.15 545 531 WED 12Z 28-NOV 0.8 -6.4 1020 91 16 0.00 542 526 The warmest it gets up there while it precipitates is 37.0 Degrees. Thanks, hopefully temps trend colder on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Those surface temperatures look fine to me....37F at LGA while it's precipitating probably means all locations would evaporationally cool to near freezing during heavy precipitation, especially in the suburbs. Euro surface temperatures tend to run a little mild, anyway. As long as 850s are cold enough and the system tracks offshore with periods of moderate to heavy precipitation, this is mainly a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Guys, when you are looking at these surface temps, it is important to remember that the Euro is usually at least 2 degrees too warm on these soundings with the surface temps, and it was like 5-8 degrees too warm with the surface temps with the last storm and this storm is looking very similar to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Guys, when you are looking at these surface temps, it is important to remember that the Euro is usually at least 2 degrees too warm on these soundings with the surface temps, and it was like 5-8 degrees too warm with the surface temps with the last storm and this storm is looking very similar to me at this point. Yes. At SMQ, the warmest temperature it got on the text was 33.8 Degrees, which might be below freezing if these boundary layer warmth biases are in this ECMWF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I don't think surface temps will be a problem... in my 4 years living in NYC I have only seen one event where the city got nothing while the fabled 'north and west suburbs' managed to accumulate (I believe it was in December of '09?). I think we will get a better picture of BL temps once the storm is inside the NAM's range, as it's typically one of the better models for surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 JB's snow forecast. Grossly overdone as usual, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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