earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Let's all hope the RAP is out to lunch...because its 12 hour forecast has NYC at 45 degrees with light rain at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 If you look at the BL in the 950mb-975mb range, a stronger system is going to increase this flow out of the ENE...the NAM warms this level between 15z and 18z despite the precip increasing because of the ENE flow. The precip intensity is able to fight it off though and it levels out...also the winds start turn more NE in the BL as the system moves east. The RGEM is probably pushing this BL warmth a little more inland. But it should be watched. This is often the difference between a 35F and rain and 35F with snow falling when 850s are cold enough to snow. True. Especially since the system is just off to the S and SW as opposed to a coastal bomb which tends to always stay to the southeast of our area. So, strong coastal systems are definitely better for snow than overrunning waves this time of year for immediate coastal areas -- all else being equal. I still think the models are overdoing the surface "torch" given that evaporational cooling can still put up quite a fight. But it's clear that some ingredients are lacking from what we had during the 11/7 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Ya know, maybe its not crazy that a few models show some mixing of zr... if the inversion doesn't mix out fast enough in some places there could be a little freezing rain. Its 24 in Lakehurst right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You can see the WAA surge at the 850mb level, too. SV has the 925mb temperature graphics and you can see the WAA bring the 0c line up to Monmouth County NJ -- and as soundings confirm a little warmer layer below 900mb. But here's the loop for illustrative purposes. http://www.meteo.psu...4_0z/8loop.html Also look at how the surface and 850mb wind barbs are perpendicular to the isotherms in southern regions (very efficient warm air advection), but they are about half way between parallel and perpendicular on the cold side. Thus, the warm air advection is "winning". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Also look at how the surface wind barbs are perpendicular to the isotherms in southern regions (very efficient warm air advection), but they are about half way between parallel and perpendicular on the cold side. Thus, the warm air advection is "winning". Yeah...this low level warm tongue is the reason why we're seeing the snow algorithms showing little to nothing east of NYC and dramatically less east of EWR. It's evident on soundings, but on this 975mb temperature map you can see the NAM also has the same warm tongue as the RGEM..just a little farther east. The thing that concerns me is that the NAM really likes banding and QPF and can often be too generous in that regard. If it's too strong with the dynamics and lift, it's cooling the column too fast. The RGEM might be more reliable at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That's a good point regarding the duration of the fetch. It won't traverse very far, but where it does hit would be affected. Immediate north shore beaches would seem to suffer more, intuitively, than the immediate south shore. ...though that seems odd to say. But of course, the hillier north shore regions not along the water will still do better than most locations on Long Island in this setup -- all else being equal. This does happen in the fall. It was very pronounced last Halloween (nothing within a mile of the sound) but similar happened right next to the sound earlier this month. In another couple of weeks it won't matter much. However, as you noted with light winds it is really just the beaches that are affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Let's all hope the RAP is out to lunch...because its 12 hour forecast has NYC at 45 degrees with light rain at 15z. KLGA BUFKIT forecast sounding for 20Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 This is an all snow event for just about everyone here. EWR 40/22 NYC 41/19 HPN 33/20 Low dewpoints and cold 850s. I'd only worry about temperatures if you're immediately on the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 MM5 looks fine http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2012112700/images_d2/slp.21.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Ya know, maybe its not crazy that a few models show some mixing of zr... if the inversion doesn't mix out fast enough in some places there could be a little freezing rain. Its 24 in Lakehurst right now. 00Z RGEM total freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 MM5 looks fine http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.21.0000.gif That is kind of comforting, but its usually closer to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 MM5 looks fine http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.21.0000.gif Through 4 PM tomorrow afternoon it actually is good for everbody *except* Long Island (though NYC and eastern Monmouth County will be close calls).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The SUNY model generally rolls out one forecast hour for every real hour that goes by...but is usually slower on nights prior to unsettled weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The 21z SREF continued to trend a little snowier over parts of NJ, but generally were in agreement with most peoples thoughts here. An inch or two west of the city with some possibly higher amounts in a band from East/Southeast PA into Western NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 UKMET says the GFS is its brother and the NAM is on crack. Maxes out at about 1/3rd inch liquid across central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 UKMET says the GFS is its brother and the NAM is on crack. Maxes out at about 1/3rd inch liquid across central NJ. You've been hanging around MetFan too long...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You've been hanging around MetFan too long...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Anybody have about 2 billion ice cubes I can toss in the Sound?...they would come in handy right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think--as is typical with these events--precip begins sooner than forecast, likely before daybreak. Radar already shows virga beginning to overspread the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think--as is typical with these events--precip begins sooner than forecast, likely before daybreak. Radar already shows virga beginning to overspread the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think--as is typical with these events--precip begins sooner than forecast, likely before daybreak. Radar already shows virga beginning to overspread the area. Maybe it will, but that leading stuff seems to be all virga, and there's quite a gap behind it before the main body of precip. It'll have to fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Maybe it will, but that leading stuff seems to be all virga, and there's quite a gap behind it before the main body of precip. It'll have to fill in. Did we just have our first late night radar hallucination of the year? I think we did. This calls for a toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Wow, quite the radiation inversion we have. Though the temp at Rutgers Gardens jumped up from 28 to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Did we just have our first late night radar hallucination of the year? I think we did. This calls for a toast. Did you read my post? I clearly said it was virga. Don't take what I say out of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Did you read my post? I clearly said it was virga. Don't take what I say out of context. Just playing, man..plus we already had our first hallucinations a couple of weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Wow, quite the radiation inversion we have. Though the temp at Rutgers Gardens jumped up from 28 to 30. Agreed, My sensor on my roof is at 40.5 degrees (35 feet off the ground), another sensor about 15 feet is at 38.2 and a following one 4 feet is at 35.8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Euro ticked north by a few miles. Looks to be slightly cooler based on the broad 2m temperature maps I can see...with slightly more liquid. Nothing earth shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 My parents bottomed out at 30 but have risen back to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 My parents bottomed out at 30 but have risen back to 33. A bunch of high resolution models including the RAP have temps actually getting into the 40's by morning along the coast and in the suburbs..and then dropping. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 A bunch of high resolution models including the RAP have temps actually getting into the 40's by morning along the coast and in the suburbs..and then dropping. Just something to watch. Does the RAP throw more moisture back up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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