Nikolai Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 my call: areas under the heaviest banding will see amounts up to 6". Central Park measures 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 my call: areas under the heaviest banding will see amounts up to 6". Central Park measures 3". I vote to make you mother nature. You think NYC gets 3"? How much liquid do you think will be melted out of that? Going to be some really ugly ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I vote to make you mother nature. You think NYC gets 3"? How much liquid do you think will be melted out of that? Going to be some really ugly ratios. Not if the precip comes down heavy like the Nam shows. I could see how Nikolai verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not if the precip comes down heavy like the Nam shows. I could see how Nikolai verifies. I'll remind you that the 4.7" on 11/7 had a water equivalent of 1.18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'll remind you that the 4.7" on 11/7 had a water equivalent of 1.18". Yeah. Idk sure we could be in for a surprise but the lack of moisture will probably kill hopes especially at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'll remind you that the 4.7" on 11/7 had a water equivalent of 1.18". I guess it's all about location, howell nj had 1.36" of precip(11" of snow) and it started as rain..Pretty much the same here in freehold (13").. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's amazing it is still November, I didn't think much of this event as I didn't think much of 11/7 but somehow we've been over performing so who knows what will happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I love how these models treat Long Island as if it were ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Wow...LI screw event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That snowfall map is strange, it has more snow for central NJ than the city and L.I. It looks like it is bring too much ocean air into the coast, which is odd sicne the surface winds are from the North to Northeast during the event. I would expect that the city and L.I. would get more and central NJ would get less. A 1"-4"on the grass would be my best estimate for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Wow...LI screw event It's nonsense bro and not just because I live on it. Happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The snowfall maps were pulling the same crap for the 11/7 event, too. Long Island is not a hot island of gas. There is no strong onshore flow to create temperatures that much warmer than places just west of NYC. In this setup, the ocean -- all else being equal -- would make amounts slightly less, but not THAT much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z Nam text soundings show NYC in the mid 30's as the heavier precip falls. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KNYC.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Upton's latest snowmap http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Down to 27.3 degrees in southern Somerset county. Very nice radiational cooling taking shape at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I wonder if good ratios would be a factor up here.. Currently 24.6/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Upton thinks all snow for central nassau county...my point and click. A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Periods of snow, mainly after 7am. High near 38. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Night Periods of snow, mainly before 10pm. Low around 32. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Wow OKX now saying all snow for my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I wonder if good ratios would be a factor up here.. Currently 24.6/20 thats just fake cold(rac) your temps will rise close to everyone elses (inland areas) as clouds roll in and thicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 SREF still not budging much... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROBNE_21z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 28 degrees here on the north shore of li looking good for some snow as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 NWS just changed my forecast to all snow. Upton changed the whole area to all snow. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 thats just fake cold(rac) your temps will rise close to everyone elses (inland areas) as clouds roll in and thicken. Same story every storm. Should be getting cloudy rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 GFS going more north also. A little heavier on the precip. also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 00Z RGEM showing about four inches of snow for interior NJ at elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to admit being somewhat mystified by the degree of the warmup many of the models (including the latest 0z RGEM) seem to be indicating. It seems that whatever cold air is currently in place will quickly be eroded as marine air engulfs the immediate coast. I didn't buy it when I saw a few models show it the other day...but with less than 12 hours to go and it still showing up on some models...it is very troubling to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to admit being somewhat mystified by the degree of the warmup many of the models (including the latest 0z RGEM) seem to be indicating. It seems that whatever cold air is currently in place will quickly be eroded as marine air engulfs the immediate coast. I didn't buy it when I saw a few models show it the other day...but with less than 12 hours to go and it still showing up on some models...it is very troubling to say the least. This is the problem with November snows around here, you need dynamic lows which we had two weeks ago and not this time, although one can argue the Thanksgiving 1989 storm was not the most dynamic storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 This time of year we should be happy just to see snow fall. Accumulation is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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