Isotherm Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 this is a rough map i put together real quickly...ive barely looked into this but i took the nam's heaviest precip axis into mind (while cutting those totals way back of course)....not bad considering I gave it virtually no chance for the coastal plain in this setup a week ago Didn't realize the fish had lawns. Other than that, looks like a decent map at this juncture. I'm waiting until 00z to make a call on this nail biter. May be a situation where folks outside of the deform band get a slushy coating-0.5" and in the strongest vv's you get 3-4". Tight gradients and elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Temps are going to drop like a rock now outside the city. Ideal radiational cooling conditions currently!! (They will probaly settle or rise slightly after the clouds move in later but some of the 's are going to get excited.) Already down to 33* here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Where are you located synwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Where are you located synwx FYI, his profile says: Middletown, NY Down to 30.9 in Muttontown now, great radiational cooling night for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Where are you located synwx Yeah im in Middletown, NY ( About 60 miles NW of NYC ) Down to 28.4* now. No question it will accumulate just a matter of getting precip this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Got down to 36 last nite in Colts neck I was on a west wind , Down to 33 already on a N wind and thats making a huge difference outside the city tonight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Got down to 36 last nite in Colts neck I was on a west wind , Down to 33 already on a N wind and thats making a huge difference outside the city tonight . I think the clouds played a big role last night. NYC area was socked in much of the night, areas further south were clear til late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 FYI, his profile says: Middletown, NY Down to 30.9 in Muttontown now, great radiational cooling night for sure. IS that you on weather underground muttontown? You are always the coolest spot in nassau by far, i am the albertson, station, down to 34/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think the clouds played a big role last night. NYC area was socked in much of the night, areas further south were clear til late. Think a lot of places to my west are really goin to start in the hole with this one . Jutst wondering , do you put NEPA and West central NJ under a WSW with temps close to 30 in the AM with .50 - .75 qpf a real possibility ? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 This event could end up like Nov. 30, 2000 or Nov. 27th 2002...A little rain ending as snow...Those were night time events...Another analog storm could be Nov. 20th 1955...1" of wet snow and some rain mixed in...That was a daylight event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 This event could end up like Nov. 30, 2000 or Nov. 27th 2002...A little rain ending as snow...Those were night time events...Another analog storm could be Nov. 20th 1955...1" of wet snow and some rain mixed in...That was a daylight event... Eh, sun angles equivalent to early to mid January. This will be more intensity based IMO. (Sure elevation helps too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 No. Advisory. Precip doesn't get going until daybreak and temps will likely increase through the night (albeit to 32 or so) as clouds enter the area. Guys, an inch or two for WNJ is not a big deal. The Poconos will have a better BL, but the heaviest precip looks to miss them just to the south. Again, with such marginal temps and time of day, I just don't see this as being a problem. Think a lot of places to my west are really goin to start in the hole with this one . Jutst wondering , do you put NEPA and West central NJ under a WSW with temps close to 30 in the AM with .50 - .75 qpf a real possibility ? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 No. Advisory. Precip doesn't get going until daybreak and temps will likely increase through the night (albeit to 32 or so) as clouds enter the area. Guys, an inch or two for WNJ is not a big deal. The Poconos will have a better BL, but the heaviest precip looks to miss them just to the south. Again, with such marginal temps and time of day, I just don't see this as being a problem. How many years have you been forecasting for N. Jersey? <serious question> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Two things. First of all the SREF's continue to look even better. Second of all, the NAM is already verifying a couple of degrees too warm in may location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 can you elaborate on SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That heavy band of precip has made it into Northern NJ on this run. Through Morris County, Bergen County, and into NYC at 21 hours. .50 line now makes it north to Rt. 80 and into NYC itself. Definitely about 20 miles north of previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 sweet maybe i can eek out an inch or two here in Denville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z Nam is slightly north and it looks like it is going to come in wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Precip continues to edge North.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z Nam again is really impressive for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z Nam again is really impressive for the area Rainier day Somewhere between Scranton, Trenton, and Sussex is the Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 NAM still looks good. Best lift still moves from SE PA through Western/Central NJ. Probably will have similar forecast snow amounts to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 NAM still looks good. Best lift still moves from SE PA through Western/Central NJ. Probably will have similar forecast snow amounts to the 18z run. QPF is more impressive on this run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 There is definitely more evidence for a north shift amongst the high resolution models...some of them are now taking the surface low just south of LI and developing a CCB over Southern New England. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Heaviest strip of precip now centered over NYC......over .75" from NYC and east. And temps already in low to mid 30s, looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Looks like around .75 qpf for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z Nam is slightly north and it looks like it is going to come in wet. This is a good sign and if it verifies heavier precip will cool the BL resulting in a period of mod wet snow in the NYC area. It would be a pleasant snow lovers surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'm starting to believe 1-4" might actually happen in the city. NAM finally cooled off the surface enough so its believably some sticking snow at KNYC. Ratios will still stink, probably 5:1, so the 0.70" the NAM spits out comes down to 3.5", then subtract some more for the known NAM excessive QPF bias. Not sold on it yet, want to see the GFS pick up on it to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The NAM and RGEM both have this band of moderate to heavy snow sitting over Southeast PA for a few hours and then moving progressively northeast through NJ and now, this run, towards NYC before it weakens a bit. I think areas that get under this area of enhanced lift and banding could see 2-4" and I woudln't be surprised if someone in SE PA or Western NJ saw 5-6" should this band develop as the NAM suggests. You can also see the NAM picking up on the dynamic cooling under this band with temps 3-6 degrees lower than surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think any question about this being rain in Northern New Jersey has just been removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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