CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 So you're Tweet yesterday that I had busted and your FB post that I had a meltdown because of no snow or storm and torch next weekend on jerry's bday didn't happen? Or the tweet yesterday about it looking unlikely that there will be snow next week.. Or the 18z GFS post yesterday? those were just jokes right? It's your and not you're. But I'm not surprised to see this happen but overall my forecast has been pretty good. Potential for a storm is there but it wasn't a lock either way. Not sure you could really say anything more than that up through today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I guess the VT border's out, fmp. Mike..you're fine up there., We know how the qpf fields are always undermodelled and that fronto band always ends up 50-100 miles north. How many times have we seen this? The one time you got burned was Nov 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I don't. Was it about messenger OES? speaking of which...that day 6/7 euro chart would probably deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 speaking of which...that day 6/7 euro chart would probably deliver the goods. euro is darn cold to end the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The trends are definitely good now. I like where most of us sit at 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The trends are definitely good now. I like where most of us sit at 84 hours out. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I'm happy for everyone. What a way to kick off the great winter of 12/13..One we will always remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The trends are definitely good now. I like where most of us sit at 84 hours out. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The trends are definitely good now. I like where most of us sit at 84 hours out. Agreed. I agree. i am naked right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Will .or Scooter.is this Tuesday afternoon or night deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Nah, it's south of you. On this run a good hit for SNE south coast. Phil may be snowshoeing his way to work. These are the only system that can get it done for us on the coast this early in the year. EDIT: Kev should be doing the suck it dance to all the flamethrowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Enjoy the snow on Tuesday SNE! 1.25" last 90 minutes in upslope squalls. Funny thing is I got on the chairlift this morning...and by chance it ended up being Cpick that got on with me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Enjoy the snow on Tuesday SNE! 1.25" last 90 minutes in upslope squalls. Funny thing is I got on the chairlift this morning...and by chance it ended up being Cpick that got on with me lol. Thats so cool, Pickles is great peeps, LOl on your MPM type angst lately, enjoy the upslope bro, you will be rocking most of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I suppose it could go SE a little more, but I like where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thats so cool, Pickles is great peeps, LOl on your MPM type angst lately, enjoy the upslope bro, you will be rocking most of this week. Yeah little stressed lately lol...dumping dendrites helps But yeah that was so crazy...we got like a couple towers up the lift and I was like is that Christian? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I suppose it could go SE a little more, but I like where I sit. If you look atwhere the vortmax tracks, it is great for SNE. Hopefully it doesn't go back SE, but usually once these systems start nudging north on guidance inside of 96 hours, you usually see that trend continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Not that anyone cares, but JB has 4-8 for all of SNE-I-84 is the best corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If you look atwhere the vortmax tracks, it is great for SNE. Hopefully it doesn't go back SE, but usually once these systems start nudging north on guidance inside of 96 hours, you usually see that trend continue. Yeah I do like that vortmax track and although I did not say it...it appears the mid level banding potential gets to ORH-BOS line. I just got into work, but it may be a little while before I can fire up the euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Not that anyone cares, but JB has 4-8 for all of SNE-I-84 is the best corridor of course he does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This makes me laugh - hahaha oy vay CISCO has always been the best salaried troll out there AS PER COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT RANGE DESK, SQUASHED THE DAY 3/3.5 PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPDATE PACKAGE TO EMPHASIZE THE COLLECTIVE TREND TOWARD GIVING MORE CREDIT TO THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EAST. THIS ADJUSTMENT, AS PER THE TREND ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE 12Z/24 MODELS, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR NEW YORK STATE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE REGION FROM PHILADELPHIA TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LIMITING FACTOR THERE WOULD BE THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION- RELATED TO THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSE. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This makes me laugh - hahaha oy vay CISCO has always been the best salaried troll out there AS PER COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT RANGE DESK, SQUASHED THE DAY 3/3.5 PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPDATE PACKAGE TO EMPHASIZE THE COLLECTIVE TREND TOWARD GIVING MORE CREDIT TO THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EAST. THIS ADJUSTMENT, AS PER THE TREND ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE 12Z/24 MODELS, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR NEW YORK STATE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE REGION FROM PHILADELPHIA TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LIMITING FACTOR THERE WOULD BE THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION- RELATED TO THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSE. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah I do like that vortmax track and although I did not say it...it appears the mid level banding potential gets to ORH-BOS line. I just got into work, but it may be a little while before I can fire up the euro maps. Yeah in these SWFE we often see that nice mid-level fronto band set up well north of the model QPF. Its like when dendrite used to get 8" of snow in events like 12/19/08 when the modeled QPF was 0.30" up there. We'll have to watch and see if that vortmax comes in stronger tonight when it is sampled coming onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Mike..you're fine up there., We know how the qpf fields are always undermodelled and that fronto band always ends up 50-100 miles north. How many times have we seen this? The one time you got burned was Nov 7 I wouldn't get his hopes up. This is not a great set up for NW MA. I could see you up through orh doing great while we watch hours of heavy virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah I do like that vortmax track and although I did not say it...it appears the mid level banding potential gets to ORH-BOS line. I just got into work, but it may be a little while before I can fire up the euro maps. Tues Pm or night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Mike..you're fine up there., We know how the qpf fields are always undermodelled and that fronto band always ends up 50-100 miles north. How many times have we seen this? The one time you got burned was Nov 7 I did better in the last hour than I did on November 7-8. Sure will be a chilly one tonight. Down to 33.7/18, with a top gust of 31mph over the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Tues Pm or night? Looks like Tuesday pm, possibly near noon for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If this can have modest deepening, I may have pytpe issues to start...but probably would flip to SN with a nice freeze potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looks like Tuesday pm, possibly near noon for you. Over by Wed morning or can we linger even here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If this can have modest deepening, I may have pytpe issues to start...but probably would flip to SN with a nice freeze potential. there's definite issues with that for this region but i'd think you'd probably be OK like you said after any short-lived issues to start. Euro has 00z surface temp in BOS of basically 0C and plenty cold off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Over by Wed morning or can we linger even here? Looks like it's over before dawn there as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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