ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Crazy Uncle is north of 12z too...but since we can't see 6 hour precip except at 24 and 36 hours, its kind of tough to tell exact amounts. But it looks like most of SNE would be safely in in the 0.10-0.25" range. The 36h mark doens't have the crazy inverted trough that the GFS does. But it could have something at 30h we can't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Maybe RAP was onto something. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUK4pTQXrQQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! Read the obituary the other day, I'm sorry about that Ryan. Just went through the same thing with my grandfather. I know it's hard, but it sounds like he was a good man! Safe travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Read the obituary the other day, I'm sorry about that Ryan. Just went through the same thing with my grandfather. I know it's hard, but it sounds like he was a good man! Safe travels. Thanks everyone... Appreciate it. I think this thing tomorrow will have a few surprises. Should be a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Crazy Uncle is north of 12z too...but since we can't see 6 hour precip except at 24 and 36 hours, its kind of tough to tell exact amounts. But it looks like most of SNE would be safely in in the 0.10-0.25" range. The 36h mark doens't have the crazy inverted trough that the GFS does. But it could have something at 30h we can't see. Safe to say the Euro will ride north too and hopefully solidify the thermal profiles. Most of the TV mets were running 1-3" south of Boston west of Rte 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Safe to say the Euro will ride north too and hopefully solidify the thermal profiles. Most of the TV mets were running 1-3" south of Boston west of Rte 3. Safe call IMO. I think the wildcard will be E MA inside 495/BOS metro. If we get in on that final band as it departs, I wouldn't rule out a couple inches locally. For some reason this event reminds me of that 12/20/10 event. About an inch here, but SE MA around Stonehill got 3-4". Anyone recall? It was on the day of my last final...not exactly sure of the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Man what a weenie run of the gfs ...lol. Gives my backyard 1.50" of qpf. I refuse to buy it but oh do I want to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! Deepest condolences. Very sorry to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Safe to say the Euro will ride north too and hopefully solidify the thermal profiles. Most of the TV mets were running 1-3" south of Boston west of Rte 3. If this were a regular snow shield with no inv trough then it probably would change to Snow as rates increased. However, you may have 15-20 kts of wind on the east side of this thing so even If it set up inland...that's gonna torch whoever is east of it...even if it extended to Brockton or places like that. I think for you guys and the Cape, you want a more CCB like feature that will develop and as the low moves away, winds back northerly and you eventually turn to snow. That still may happen for your area, but it may be a last minute thing. Winds will eventually turn north but the question remains how much forcing is left as this happens. Sometimes winds have to go more NNW to truly push marine air away if the lower 2k is mild. That happened to me on T-day 2002 in Marshfield. Did not snow until winds went NNW. These inv trough are notorious for stronger east winds on the east side of them, so it can be tough early in the season. There are a lot of questions with this thing. It may surprise some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Ryan, sorry to hear. Thoughts to you and your family. With regards to the 0z run...impressive trend on everything. BUFKIT numbers from the NAM in S CT from BDR over to GON give about 0.5" QPF snow...with a bit of rain at the start. Of course NAM often is a bit too juicy...but looks like the GFS is coming in with QPF numbers somewhat comparable...maybe 0.1" less. Could wind up being a nice 2-4" even tomorrow for S CT away from the shore...and 1-3" further north. If those numbers verify...Kevin will be absolutely insufferable tomorrow. I'd certainly be happy with a decent snowfall...but I do hate it when he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 If this were a regular snow shield with no inv trough then it probably would change to Snow as rates increased. However, you may have 15-20 kts of wind on the east side of this thing so even If it set up inland...that's gonna torch whoever is east of it...even if it extended to Brockton or places like that. I think for you guys and the Cape, you want a more CCB like feature that will develop and as the low moves away, winds back northerly and you eventually turn to snow. That still may happen for your area, but it may be a last minute thing. Winds will eventually turn north but the question remains how much forcing is left as this happens. Sometimes winds have to go more NNW to truly push marine air away if the lower 2k is mild. That happened to me on T-day 2002 in Marshfield. Did not snow until winds went NNW. These inv trough are notorious for stronger east winds on the east side of them, so it can be tough early in the season. There are a lot of questions with this thing. It may surprise some. Ah maybe that's the year i'm thinking of 2002. Yeah, I may be awake for the euro but I don't think it matters much regardless. Details will be determined here Tuesday. I expect mostly rain with some falling snow. If we pulled off the Flutie and got into accumulating snow i'll be surprised. It's very unusual here this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Oh my somebody get to Dorchester and buy up all the rope, toasters and chairs before Scooter gets them. Hope he is on the good side of the inv or we might get a SnowNH type meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Ah maybe that's the year i'm thinking of 2002. Yeah, I may be awake for the euro but I don't think it matters much regardless. Details will be determined here Tuesday. I expect mostly rain with some falling snow. If we pulled off the Flutie and got into accumulating snow i'll be surprised. It's very unusual here this early. 11/27/02 and 12/06/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Oh my somebody get to Dorchester and buy up all the rope, toasters and chairs before Scooter gets them. Hope he is on the good side of the inv or we might get a SnowNH type meltdown. LOL...wonder if it sets up just inside 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Well will be reading if I wake up again around 1. Hey let' shope this is how the winter goes and instead of things getting away from us, they come to us in the closing innings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Any word on when the UKMET comes out? EDIT: Saw Will's post from earlier. Also, looks like the GGEM came way north too. Verbatim, gets the mixing line to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 GGEM looks solid. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not sure if this site has be mentioned but worth checking out http://spotwx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! My condolences to you Ryan, sucks when you lose a family member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Euro definitely more amped through 24h. IT has all of SNE over 0.10" through 24h...S CT/S RI around 0.25"...it has that signal for E MA too late, but its nothing like the strength of the GFS. QPF is definitely beefed up, but its not ridiculous. I don't think anyone in SNE gets more than about 0.30"...perhaps a shade over that on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Congrat's guys on the 6z GFS... looks like a lot of you should cover the grass up at the very least. Has the feel of a system where a few folks get into some nice bands and have a good period of steady snows, while others right next door might be seeing only flurries or light snow. I bet there will be some band to the north where someone gets solid advisory snowfall who wasn't expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not sure if this site has be mentioned but worth checking out http://spotwx.com/ Very Cool! Thanks for the link. Looks like some mood flakes for NW MA today. Good luck to those further S & E! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 AWT Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 453 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2012 CTZ002>004-MAZ002>005-008>021-RIZ001>004-006-272100-HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-WASHINGTON RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...CHESTERFIELD... BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD... WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY... TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD... MATTAPOISETT...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE... WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY 453 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2012 ...A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW MAY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S COMMUTE AS WELL AS BLACK ICING LATER TONIGHT... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY MID MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE TO THE MID 30S ACROSS INLAND AREAS...MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY IN GRASSY AND UNTREATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW MAY STICK ON SOME ROADWAYS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES DROP OFF TONIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLACK ICE MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WHERE THERE WAS MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOTORISTS THAT PLAN ON TRAVELING LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAKE EXTRA TIME IN REACHING THEIR DESTINATIONS. $$ EVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Well well well..good morning weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Oh my somebody get to Dorchester and buy up all the rope, toasters and chairs before Scooter gets them. Hope he is on the good side of the inv or we might get a SnowNH type meltdown. Where did this come from? I was just explaining to Scott some ideas for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Hopefully everyone enjoys this nice snowy wintry day and night and it should stay on the ground thru Saturday..so we should have a solid 4-5 days of snowcover..before the minor mild up early next week. I'm hopeful Scooter and those furthur SE can get some snow tonight as the thing bombs and extends the weenie trough NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Kevin may well jackpot given his good position in the waa snows before the low gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Looking forward to my coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Ryan, sorry to hear. Thoughts to you and your family. With regards to the 0z run...impressive trend on everything. BUFKIT numbers from the NAM in S CT from BDR over to GON give about 0.5" QPF snow...with a bit of rain at the start. Of course NAM often is a bit too juicy...but looks like the GFS is coming in with QPF numbers somewhat comparable...maybe 0.1" less. Could wind up being a nice 2-4" even tomorrow for S CT away from the shore...and 1-3" further north. If those numbers verify...Kevin will be absolutely insufferable tomorrow. I'd certainly be happy with a decent snowfall...but I do hate it when he's right. LOL..why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Kevin may well jackpot given his good position in the waa snows before the low gets going. Hopefully, but my guess is N RI over to Foxboro for jacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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