Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Scooter has his snow, and baby on the way FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 GFS is >0.5" liquid from BOS points south and most of RI. CT is 0.25"+ from HFD points south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That's an inv signal there. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Lol, the weenies on the bus go round and round round and round. Thanks for the explanation Will, makes sense but damn did it radiate like a mofo tonight again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 rgem is toasty, good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Hey guys, Have an interview at Brown on Wednesday and am driving up to Providence from NYC, leaving around noon tomorrow. Sorry for the IMBY, but what kind of timing of this are y'all expecting as of now in the I-95 corridor b/t NYC and Providence? Any help would be appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Seeing those CIPs analogs today gave me a glimmer of hope. Nice suite of runs tonight, hope it happens and it's colder than progged with good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Where the winds are more easterly on that inverted trough, it is a torch though in the BL. A lot of SE MA has freezing heights over 2000 feet during that heavier precip. BOS is looking better and would probably be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 man the GFS looks close to a very large (geographic coverage) advisory snow. Even some places in CT may see 3 or 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Where the winds are more easterly on that inverted trough, it is a torch though in the BL. A lot of SE MA has freezing heights over 2000 feet during that heavier precip. BOS is looking better and would probably be snow. Yeah that would be a funky setup with a really strong thermal gradient on either side of the front. That would probably be a good storm for places like Sharon, Foxborough, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 man the GFS looks close to a very large (geographic coverage) advisory snow. Even some places in CT may see 3 or 4" Eh, I dunno. At least back here it's a 1/4" of QPF in many areas along and south of 84 but it's awfully drawn out and pretty light rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah that would be a funky setup with a really strong thermal gradient on either side of the front. That would probably be a good storm for places like Sharon, Foxborough, etc. Agree...the layer that really torches on the wrong side of the gradient is more like 950-975mb rather than the sfc. The freezing levels are almost 2000 feet difference between BOS and TAN. BOS is about 2C cooler at 950mb but only like 0.8 cooler at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Agree...the layer that really torches on the wrong side of the gradient is more like 950-975mb rather than the sfc. The freezing levels are almost 2000 feet difference between BOS and TAN. BOS is about 2C cooler at 950mb but only like 0.8 cooler at the sfc. I'm getting a free car wash on the GFS. But this situation seems to be evolving so much at the end I can only hope the Euro comes in a lot cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Agree...the layer that really torches on the wrong side of the gradient is more like 950-975mb rather than the sfc. The freezing levels are almost 2000 feet difference between BOS and TAN. BOS is about 2C cooler at 950mb but only like 0.8 cooler at the sfc. This setup is almost worse for coastal SE Mass with the burst of QPF from the inverted trough. Winds speed up a bit out of the east and torch the boundary layer. You'd be better off with just the overrunning for places like cweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 This setup is almost worse for coastal SE Mass with the burst of QPF from the inverted trough. Winds speed up a bit out of the east and torch the boundary layer. You'd be better off with just the overrunning for places like cweat. Any wind east of about 15 degrees is a killer for me this early in the year. Different signals from different models, hoping the euro will provide clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Wind direction is so key this time of year, unless 850s are like -10C. That inv trough would no doubt have a juicy outcome whereever that sets up as modeled on the GFS. Pretty unstable with TT over 50 and strong low level theta-e thanks to east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Just saying this (kind of corny too), but every winter season has a personality. Some are cruel, while others make you pinch yourself. Not saying what kind of personality this one has since it's so early, but the fact we're on our second legit threat/event before 12/1 is encouraging. 00z GFS is encouraging as well. BOS metro may get more than sprinkles/flurries after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 This setup is almost worse for coastal SE Mass with the burst of QPF from the inverted trough. Winds speed up a bit out of the east and torch the boundary layer. You'd be better off with just the overrunning for places like cweat. Yeah I noticed that too, This morning I made the comment about lighter winds helping out, but that's probably 15-20kts from the ENE down there. A big change. Still gotta see if any CCB can get going as winds go more nrly. That will flip to snow if it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Just saying this (kind of corny too), but every winter season has a personality. Some are cruel, while others make you pinch yourself. Not saying what kind of personality this one has since it's so early, but the fact we're on our second legit threat/event before 12/1 is encouraging. 00z GFS is encouraging as well. BOS metro may get more than sprinkles/flurries after all. I'm sure something will go wrong, watch the inv trough set up over Jerry...lol. In all seriousness, it looks interesting...but I also think it may be a nowcast deal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Hey guys, Have an interview at Brown on Wednesday and am driving up to Providence from NYC, leaving around noon tomorrow. Sorry for the IMBY, but what kind of timing of this are y'all expecting as of now in the I-95 corridor b/t NYC and Providence? Any help would be appreciated! Probably about the worst time if it's all snow, if the coast is warm just wet pavement but it's a close call as of now. Models say more wet near the water but rates may wash that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 If the inverted trough actually sets up that potent, then someone on the right side of it would probably get a nice surprise. But its just one run of the GFS and a few SREF members doing it. We'll see what the Euro thinks. There's weaker hints of this in other guidance so I think something will happen on that front, but it might just be a little enhancement/extension northward of the commahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 same areas that have gotten snow the past two years get more tomorrow. seems like everyone in New England and the mid-atlantic have been watching a very small, usually not that snowy, area of central nj up through sw conn and coastal conn get what little snow there has been. parts in interior central nj got 12 inches last week and are looking at anouther 3-6 tomorrow...if that comes true they will have their season's average before December even begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! Sorry to hear about the passing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! That sucks...sorry to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Maybe RAP was onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah I noticed that too, This morning I made the comment about lighter winds helping out, but that's probably 15-20kts from the ENE down there. A big change. Still gotta see if any CCB can get going as winds go more nrly. That will flip to snow if it occurred. Yeah one of the few times you actually don't want to see heavier precip rates in SE Mass because that means it's being enhanced by a inverted trough that will almost act as a coastal front. I really like that Sharon/Foxborough area. Normally a snow weenie spot and this sort of seems like a storm they could cash in on while cweat is emptying his rain gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! Condolences to you and your family Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 same areas that have gotten snow the past two years get more tomorrow. seems like everyone in New England and the mid-atlantic have been watching a very small, usually not that snowy, area of central nj up through sw conn and coastal conn get what little snow there has been. parts in interior central nj got 12 inches last week and are looking at anouther 3-6 tomorrow...if that comes true they will have their season's average before December even begins. And they got shafted for years until 2009-2010. Climo is a b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I have to head up to Northampton tomorrow morning for my grandfather's funeral. At least I know the drive home will be fine since it takes a miracle to snow in the Pioneer Valley! Sorry to hear about your grandfather Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.