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November 27th - 28th Snow Potential


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Where the winds are more easterly on that inverted trough, it is a torch though in the BL. A lot of SE MA has freezing heights over 2000 feet during that heavier precip. BOS is looking better and would probably be snow.

Yeah that would be a funky setup with a really strong thermal gradient on either side of the front. That would probably be a good storm for places like Sharon, Foxborough, etc.

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Yeah that would be a funky setup with a really strong thermal gradient on either side of the front. That would probably be a good storm for places like Sharon, Foxborough, etc.

Agree...the layer that really torches on the wrong side of the gradient is more like 950-975mb rather than the sfc. The freezing levels are almost 2000 feet difference between BOS and TAN. BOS is about 2C cooler at 950mb but only like 0.8 cooler at the sfc.

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Agree...the layer that really torches on the wrong side of the gradient is more like 950-975mb rather than the sfc. The freezing levels are almost 2000 feet difference between BOS and TAN. BOS is about 2C cooler at 950mb but only like 0.8 cooler at the sfc.

I'm getting a free car wash on the GFS. But this situation seems to be evolving so much at the end I can only hope the Euro comes in a lot cooler.

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Agree...the layer that really torches on the wrong side of the gradient is more like 950-975mb rather than the sfc. The freezing levels are almost 2000 feet difference between BOS and TAN. BOS is about 2C cooler at 950mb but only like 0.8 cooler at the sfc.

This setup is almost worse for coastal SE Mass with the burst of QPF from the inverted trough. Winds speed up a bit out of the east and torch the boundary layer. You'd be better off with just the overrunning for places like cweat.

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This setup is almost worse for coastal SE Mass with the burst of QPF from the inverted trough. Winds speed up a bit out of the east and torch the boundary layer. You'd be better off with just the overrunning for places like cweat.

Any wind east of about 15 degrees is a killer for me this early in the year. Different signals from different models, hoping the euro will provide clarity.

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Just saying this (kind of corny too), but every winter season has a personality. Some are cruel, while others make you pinch yourself. Not saying what kind of personality this one has since it's so early, but the fact we're on our second legit threat/event before 12/1 is encouraging.

00z GFS is encouraging as well. BOS metro may get more than sprinkles/flurries after all.

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This setup is almost worse for coastal SE Mass with the burst of QPF from the inverted trough. Winds speed up a bit out of the east and torch the boundary layer. You'd be better off with just the overrunning for places like cweat.

Yeah I noticed that too, This morning I made the comment about lighter winds helping out, but that's probably 15-20kts from the ENE down there. A big change. Still gotta see if any CCB can get going as winds go more nrly. That will flip to snow if it occurred.

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Just saying this (kind of corny too), but every winter season has a personality. Some are cruel, while others make you pinch yourself. Not saying what kind of personality this one has since it's so early, but the fact we're on our second legit threat/event before 12/1 is encouraging.

00z GFS is encouraging as well. BOS metro may get more than sprinkles/flurries after all.

I'm sure something will go wrong, watch the inv trough set up over Jerry...lol.

In all seriousness, it looks interesting...but I also think it may be a nowcast deal as well.

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Hey guys,

Have an interview at Brown on Wednesday and am driving up to Providence from NYC, leaving around noon tomorrow. Sorry for the IMBY, but what kind of timing of this are y'all expecting as of now in the I-95 corridor b/t NYC and Providence? Any help would be appreciated!

Probably about the worst time if it's all snow, if the coast is warm just wet pavement but it's a close call as of now. Models say more wet near the water but rates may wash that out.

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If the inverted trough actually sets up that potent, then someone on the right side of it would probably get a nice surprise. But its just one run of the GFS and a few SREF members doing it. We'll see what the Euro thinks. There's weaker hints of this in other guidance so I think something will happen on that front, but it might just be a little enhancement/extension northward of the commahead.

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same areas that have gotten snow the past two years get more tomorrow. seems like everyone in New England and the mid-atlantic have been watching a very small, usually not that snowy, area of central nj up through sw conn and coastal conn get what little snow there has been. parts in interior central nj got 12 inches last week and are looking at anouther 3-6 tomorrow...if that comes true they will have their season's average before December even begins.

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Yeah I noticed that too, This morning I made the comment about lighter winds helping out, but that's probably 15-20kts from the ENE down there. A big change. Still gotta see if any CCB can get going as winds go more nrly. That will flip to snow if it occurred.

Yeah one of the few times you actually don't want to see heavier precip rates in SE Mass because that means it's being enhanced by a inverted trough that will almost act as a coastal front.

I really like that Sharon/Foxborough area. Normally a snow weenie spot and this sort of seems like a storm they could cash in on while cweat is emptying his rain gauge.

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same areas that have gotten snow the past two years get more tomorrow. seems like everyone in New England and the mid-atlantic have been watching a very small, usually not that snowy, area of central nj up through sw conn and coastal conn get what little snow there has been. parts in interior central nj got 12 inches last week and are looking at anouther 3-6 tomorrow...if that comes true they will have their season's average before December even begins.

And they got shafted for years until 2009-2010. Climo is a b**ch.

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