CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Winds do increase a bit from the NE towards 00z tomorrow near the Cape. The lower 1000-1500ft may be hostile. I could see areas across inland SE mass turn to a 33F snow if the heavier echoes can make it up. Even PYM sounding supported a wet snow at 00z. This will be interesting to see how it evolves. Literally 20 miles will be everything. The intial WAA band seemed like c-1" stuff, but if the low develops as planned...might add another C-1" for Kevin near and after 00z. The initial WAA band still could have an elongated WSW-ENE band of enhance echoes...but at the same time, I could see it sort of fractured too. The inv trough also probably needs to be watched because winds behind that may be more nrly and support snow across SE MA...just west of this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Radiating like a SOB tonight dropped 7 degrees since 5PM. Currently 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's nice to see the modelology come around to the meteorology and why we said this would come NW. 1-4 inches Pike south..and it wouldn't shock me if ORH manages 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Bob might be in a decent spot tomorrow if the heavier bands make it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's nice to see the modelology come around to the meteorology and why we said this would come NW. 1-4 inches Pike south..and it wouldn't shock me if ORH manages 1-2 I don't think much changed since yesterday. Maybe a 30 miles shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Once inside of 8 or 9 hours it did. It pinpointed the TOL-ORH band that rotted later that night. I hated that band... Good luck to the Southerners, eastern folks. Too dry this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Quite the power house upper level jet streak overhead, reaches 130-150 knots tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I don't think much changed since yesterday. Maybe a 30 miles shift? 30-50 mile NW shift which is what we were thinking. Hopefully it's snowing by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 30-50 mile NW shift which is what we were thinking. Hopefully it's snowing by morning Well hopefully before it ends, but there needs to be work to achieve those distances. Not impossible though I suppose, that the second area nudges a bit NW...but it's not 100% and a tick SE is not off the table either. It's just gonna be nowcast trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 WAA waits for no weenie, expect earlier than predicted start times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The sounding at BOS after 03z is conditionally unstable...probably a little -EPV in there believe it or not. It just means that the deformation band may have some good rates with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I like jackpots in interior sw ct and interior eastern ct, up through the highlands of RI right into Bobs fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Here is what I mean...the sounding is pretty saturated in the mid levels near 600mb and not far from dry adiabatic. That's actually rather unstable..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I doubt anyone cracks 2" in our region...maybe SW CT hills near the Shelton poster could do it. The system looks pretty disorganized right now. If we are going to get a nice little jolt, it will probably happen pretty late in the game. My expectations are quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Is this going to be another one of those situations where the shoreline is under estimated? Or are we in a situation where no matter how hard the precip comes, we won't wet bulb to or under freezing? I think intensity and amount of precip is the issue. okx outlines this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I doubt anyone cracks 2" in our region...maybe SW CT hills near the Shelton poster could do it. The system looks pretty disorganized right now. If we are going to get a nice little jolt, it will probably happen pretty late in the game. My expectations are quite low. Yep bar set low, hope for more be happy with some. If a good Omega band sets up onshore someone will be really happy. Back of my mind are the analogs, most of which were flat waves running into confluence and blooming late. Some pretty interesting outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I doubt anyone cracks 2" in our region...maybe SW CT hills near the Shelton poster could do it. The system looks pretty disorganized right now. If we are going to get a nice little jolt, it will probably happen pretty late in the game. My expectations are quite low. Mine are fairly confident, reasonable, and am looking forward to a snowy afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yep bar set low, hope for more be happy with some. If a good Omega band sets up onshore someone will be really happy. Back of my mind are the analogs, most of which were flat waves running into confluence and blooming late. Some pretty interesting outcomes. It's all about where that band sets up. If it's kissing the south coast beaches, then enjoy the bands of WAA snow that will be disorganized. If there is a legit threat to the NW, then we'll see it on the 00z runs. I wouldn't rule out the 00z runs going SE too, but the trend since 00z is NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yep bar set low, hope for more be happy with some. If a good Omega band sets up onshore someone will be really happy. Back of my mind are the analogs, most of which were flat waves running into confluence and blooming late. Some pretty interesting outcomes. Agreed with all of you. We had a run or two in the last couple of days that seemed to be going in the right direction only to have a Charlie Brown football moment in the next run. I like the 2 run "trend" but at the same time it doesn't look great right now. really it's not supposed to look like much until it starts to exit the coast. I'm sure someone could pick apart the current situation or dig through all the AFD's but I just don't care that much and in an hour or two we'll probably have some clear trends with the models. EDIT: If you look at the RAP for 0z vs say the 18z NAM 500mb 6h...nothing glaringly wrong. Actually looks pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's 30.6F here, crystal clear and flat calm with frost on the grass as I set up some Christmas decorations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It's going to snow. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 30.1 degrees here. Just .1 more and I will hit my forecast low. I guess you can round down in this case, so I hit my forecast low already. Let's see what happens. Its all about precip rates for us tomorrow, allowing us to wetbulb its plenty cold aloft and dew points should be more than sufficient. Wind direction for us is also favorable, but if we get .1 of precip stretched out over 14 hours its just not going to cut it. Nam sim radar had some decent banding over sw ct, lets hope its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 NAM is coming in a few hours slower than the earlier runs. At least early on the precip is a bit further NW. Question will be on the development offshore. Hmm...looks pretty darn robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Its all about precip rates for us tomorrow, allowing us to wetbulb its plenty cold aloft and dew points should be more than sufficient. Wind direction for us is also favorable, but if we get .1 of precip stretched out over 14 hours its just not going to cut it. Nam sim radar had some decent banding over sw ct, lets hope its correct. Radar posts in the AM how crappy it looks then boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 NAM is impressive I think? Working off the low res maps. Looks pretty impressive all things considered. Someone will have to breakdown the temps, but good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z NAM came NW again by a decent margin. I think many more are in play now. Wow, hopefully the rest of the winter works out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 NAM looking good for SW CT. NYC looks good too (if BL cooperates) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The WAA is more impressive on the NAM than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The WAA is more impressive on the NAM than 18z. Will what do you make of the BL near the coast on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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