Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Most models seem to be hinting at lingering snows in eastern areas. At the very least it will feel wintry, hopefully we can get some accumulations. Euro will hopefully not stay flat and comes in a bit more juiced to keep future hope alive. not trying to be DD here at all but we'll have to watch the BL temps as the day progresses. i know that the 850s are cold but the low levels - at least as modeled (and seems to be make sense given climo and marginal antecedent air mass) - warm pretty considerably over the course of the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday Night. By the time we're at 00z Wed freezing levels are nearing 2K feet at FMH...which is way too high. i think precip could be snow for a while, but some of that lingering stuff might very well be liquid, especially if its not coming down gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not sure about anyone else, but I for one am looking forward to a snowy afternoon and night tomorrow. Couple inches OTG.. Holidays are here. are you moving to another part of the country in the next 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think there is a chance that my town lays down just as much salt on the roads as snow falls from the sky out of this "storm" yeah-overdone as usual. At least they don't sand anymore (on State roads) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 are you moving to another part of the country in the next 24 hours? im not sure if you're serious or trolling but Ct us a good spot tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think there is a chance that my town lays down just as much salt on the roads as snow falls from the sky out of this "storm" I hate that - an inch of snow and your in for 1.73 gallons of windshield washer fluid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 not trying to be DD here at all but we'll have to watch the BL temps as the day progresses. i know that the 850s are cold but the low levels - at least as modeled (and seems to be make sense given climo and marginal antecedent air mass) - warm pretty considerably over the course of the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday Night. By the time we're at 00z Wed freezing levels are nearing 2K feet at FMH...which is way too high. i think precip could be snow for a while, but some of that lingering stuff might very well be liquid, especially if its not coming down gangbusters. Oh I know...I just figure the first battle to fight is QPF. We could still end up with 1/4" of rain here and that's probably the most likely outcome at this point. Euro is coming north which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Euro is back to the north - pretty good jump from 0z. Paints the .1" across a lot of southern NE/CT/RI/SE MA. .25 tickles into NJ, over LI and the extreme south coast and parts of Cape Cod. Euro has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Pretty good QPF bump north for the south coast. Would seem to favor Grinchy area and the SW RI hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Euro is back to the north - pretty good jump from 0z. Paints the .1" across a lot of southern NE/CT/RI/SE MA. .25 tickles into NJ, over LI and the extreme south coast and parts of Cape Cod. Euro has been all over the place. We've got good agreement with Euro/namRgem/Srefs of a nice 1-3 inch swath of snow with a few towns tickling 4. For Nov 27 all anyone can ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 We've got good agreement with Euro/namRgem/Srefs of a nice 1-3 inch swath of snow with few towns tickling 4. For Nov 27 all anyone can ask for If you slice all these numbers in half...then you are on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 We've got good agreement with Euro/namRgem/Srefs of a nice 1-3 inch swath of snow with a few towns tickling 4. For Nov 27 all anyone can ask for i can't tell if you are being serious or are just trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Pretty good QPF bump north for the south coast. Would seem to favor Grinchy area and the SW RI hills. Looks like heavy heartbreak here as I watch the random mooshflake mixed in with the rain. Hoping for a little bump in intensity as a last minute Doug Flutie tonight. May be able to get it done for us...but right now looks like rain for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Pretty good QPF bump north for the south coast. Would seem to favor Grinchy area and the SW RI hills. how are temps? Would think this is mainly a grassy area/colder surfaces type event with light rates and temps above freezing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If you slice all these numbers in half...then you are on the right track. I would be tickled pink with 0.5", but I am thinking I maybe get a T I got a T today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 We've got good agreement with Euro/namRgem/Srefs of a nice 1-3 inch swath of snow with a few towns tickling 4. For Nov 27 all anyone can ask for Exactly. LOL I just read the Jan 21 2012 discussion and OBS thread from last year. What an epic super band for LL to Phil. The Debbie's in that thread were hilarious though. Looking forward to a covering of snow to close out our first realy wintry Nov in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 how are temps? Would think this is mainly a grassy area/colder surfaces type event with light rates and temps above freezing.... Well temps are cold aloft, but you will need good VV to help offset the boundary layer temps. However, I could see a few reasons that even parts of far SE MA could flip to snow. One being very light winds that eventually go NE. This will help limit the boundary torching. The light winds will allow for melting processes and evaporational cooling to help areas drop to near 32F, IF (big IF) we have the precip rates. 925 temps look like they drop to maybe near -2C at 00z. But again, this is all dependent if the far nrn deformation band can clip the south coast. I definitely would favor areas that have a little elevation just away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I would be tickled pink with 0.5", but I am thinking I maybe get a T I got a T today Well you are pretty far north...so am I. The further north you are in this one, the less likely to get much, if any precip. I'm expecting not much at all...maybe a coating to whiten the ground. Its possible maybe we get an inch if this comes in a touch stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If you slice all these numbers in half...then you are on the right track. Well again this is for south of pike. For you an inch is more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1243 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012 PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-270600- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.121127T0500Z-121127T1800Z/ FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS- YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG... NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON... CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 1243 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON RIDGETOPS. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE AND MID TO LATE MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. PLEASE REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSSTATECOLLEGE. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. && $$ DEVOIR Not much but better than nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Well again this is for south of pike. For you an inch is more likely No guidance supports anything like 4" in SNE. Its not impossible we see a bump north to get heavier QPF into SNE, but saying there is currently good model consensus for 1-3" with some spot 4" is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 where's all the cold air? 46 at BOS, 45 at BDL and 49 at BDR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 where's all the cold air? 46 at BOS, 45 at BDL and 49 at BDR.... Upstairs. West wind downslope with no snowpack. Also the temps aloft did moderate today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 where's all the cold air? 46 at BOS, 45 at BDL and 49 at BDR.... Steady dew point drop today, temp 43//20 after a morning low of 25, it's not a warm feel outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Good input from the mets, thanks. I'm pretty confident I see .2" or so of QPF I just don't know about temps. I'd lean heavily rain pending later guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not to be that guy but what did the models have 24h leadtime on our first Nov. snow? Didn't it look worse than this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Good input from the mets, thanks. I'm pretty confident I see .2" or so of QPF I just don't know about temps. I'd lean heavily rain pending later guidance. fwiw i think you'll / we'll get some snow out of it, i just don't think it will be all frozen. i wouldn't be surprised if FMH manages a coating or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Piling on the record at BDR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not sure about anyone else, but I for one am looking forward to a snowy afternoon and night tomorrow. Couple inches OTG.. Holidays are here. enjoy your inch spread out over 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 fwiw i think you'll / we'll get some snow out of it, i just don't think it will be all frozen. i wouldn't be surprised if FMH manages a coating or something. Beats a sharp stick in the eye and may be our only shot at snow between now and XMas I fear. I'm hoping for a coating, an inch or two I think is a possibility if we saw the models continue north another 20-30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not to be that guy but what did the models have 24h leadtime on our first Nov. snow? Didn't it look worse than this? No. That event ended up over performing by a lot...but models did have advisory snows across the elevated interior. It was also a coastal system that had a pretty well defined CCB already...the models just didn't do a greta job at handling it as it was going into occlusion. This setup is putrid compared to that...but if we can amplify it just a touch, then there could be a chance for a 2-4 hour band of snow that comes down better than 2 SM SN-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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