Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 threads are starting to get muddied with different conversations/winter vs the storm. GFS shifted a "significant" amount to the NW with the .25" line versus the 0z. There's really no debating that. But is there enough time left for another shift? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The RGEM has light precip for most of SNE...dusting to an inch perhaps. It has an inverted trough with some extra precip for the Cape. But looks kind of warm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous. Maybe. __ RGEM deepens the system about 10 mb in 12 hours as it's passing by us. I kind of like what I'm seeing this morning but whether it will be too little to late for SE NE who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 BTW I moved the pattern related posts to the other thread as this one should be focusing on our "snow event"...or flizzard more accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Put everyone on ignore and stick it up your arse. LMAO enjoying the last days of your youth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Again I think it comes with comprehension issues, words like "could" and "I could see" aren't exactly a concrete forecast. People talk about favorable indices, but usually the common caveats apply. It also gets muddied by weenies calling for endless winters and other weenies calling for busts. If you have questions..ask instead of assume. Some of the confusion comes from there being 3 different active threads but we're kind of discussing a bit of everything in all of them, JMHO. EDIT: Will is on it I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I just reviewed the last 3 cycles of the FRH grid, the one that includes BOS, LGA and PHL… (NE sector), and every one upped the QPF at PHL and LGA from 60 hours to now 48 hours out. Before saying anything further it is on the rare side, though not impossible, for LGA to clear .5” frozen QPF and have 0 registered at Logan. That said, I’ve seen this many, many times in the past, where a flat flow, open wave comes N at that last minute – usually when that happens, LGA’s QPF will indeed grow in this type of time lead. Maybe BOS goes from 0 QPF to a tenth on 18z, then suddenly near a .25 by tonight or tomorrow morning. It’s no guarantee, but something to maybe watch for in future cycles of the NAM. Then what would be funny is if the system stayed south anyway – like it was all engineered to break snow wanting hearts - HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 LMAO enjoying the last days of your youth? Other than working....yes. Chilly wx, snow chances, what could be bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Should be great seeing a wintry look for a while. Midweek Windexy. Despite all the Debbies should be a nice winter look to a fall week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Other than working....yes. Chilly wx, snow chances, what could be bad? yep I worked this AM but taking afternoon and tomorrow off after a 13 day straight stretch. Gonna chill eat drink and geek out to some winter type chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I wouldn't go that far though. Really, things still look to change due to retrogression Dec 5-10 and the ongoing -AO regime. Mid-December still looks good for New England and I'm holding the course with my wording that it won't be historic but it will be close during this time frame. Yep. It looks like 3 solid warm days (Dec 2-5) before a return to seasonable levels, especially down my way. It's not totally different than what we discussed last week in my opinion and I still think the 5-10th frame holds promise as the Pacific retrogrades. Like you said, the Pacific setup hasn't really changed from initial ideas, it's the Atlantic side not performing. This is why I warned that the cyclonic wave breaking was important and that the comparisons to 2010 were a little much. No doubt about that man. In terms of retrograding the pacific, you can definitely see the pna kink showing up on the latest euro ensembles closer to the 10th, with downstream cooling...but verbatim it just cools off the extreme positive anomalies and the 11-15 day period would still be a few degrees above even for the northeast (at best seasonable near the end).. It looks to me like after the 10th before we can get any respectable colder air back into play, but like you said there is opportunity that new england can get snow chances in the period around/leading up to the 10th without meaningful cold anomalies, given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 What date was the SW CT SRI SEMA super band last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 What date was the SW CT SRI SEMA super band last year? 1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 1/21 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 thanks sure. that was a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 sure. that was a decent storm. My biggest storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Has the UKIE come out? Just curious. NCEP Model Diagnostic: ...SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ATLC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND 09Z SREF/06Z GEFS MEANS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE BY TUE-TUE NIGHT THE NAM HAS ONE OF THE STRONGEST SOLNS WITH THE MID LVL SHRTWV... AND LIKEWISE HAS ONE OF THE DEEPEST SFC SYSTEMS FROM THE MID ATLC COAST NEWD. THE CANADIAN REG GEM SHOWS SOME HINTS OF NAM IDEAS SFC/ALOFT BUT THE GFS AND 12Z UKMET THUS FAR INDICATE THE NAM IS ONE OF THE LOWER PROBABILITY SOLNS. ON THE OTHER HAND LATEST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE 00Z ECMWF IS TOO WEAK WITH ATLC SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT... AND COULD BECOME A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE TRAILING PART OF THE OVERALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY WED. CURRENTLY PREFER A BLEND AMONG THE GFS AND 09Z SREF/06Z GEFS MEANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I know it is early and I never had any high hopes for snow from this one....but There has to come a time when the snow drought will end, specifically for a very specific area of Metro Boston an north of the pike out to about 495 up to the north shore...I would love to see a map of the country with snowfall deviation...this are has to be up there with the furthest departure...since that miraculous month on January 2011... the metro west area has not had a snowfall over 3 inches...that's coming up on 2 years now! Just read that Philadelphia (128 inches) and Central park (132 inches) have had more snow than Boston (126 inches) this decade (past three winters) Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 FWIW, the intial WAA band might get the hills of srn CT "fairly" well. I use that term loosely. I could see Grinch and his 500' weenie hill doing ok all things being equal. There is actually decent 850 theta-e advection off the warmer waters, but it really hits a brick wall in srn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 FWIW, the intial WAA band might get the hills of srn CT "fairly" well. I use that term loosely. I could see Grinch and his 500' weenie hill doing ok all things being equal. There is actually decent 850 theta-e advection off the warmer waters, but it really hits a brick wall in srn CT. Adjust north about 75 miles and we've got right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Adjust north about 75 miles and we've got right idea The GFS really gets going as it exits stage right. But, too late I think for a lot of us. Enjoy whatever you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Total Snow through hour 48 on the Rgem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 My biggest storm. my only storm! Exactly the same as 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Total Snow through hour 48 on the Rgem: That map is a chesapeake bay bridge jumper for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I don't think I've looked at this model in over a year but I'm eating lunch so...Suny mm5 was a little interesting it was a flat mess at 0z, it's still not a big hit at 12z but it's much more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 RGEM is in line with the other 12z guidance. Less than .10" liquid equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think most eastern and southern areas get d-1/2. The lingering snow in increasingly colder air is a bit of a flag. Parts of the cape may get 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think most eastern and southern areas get d-1/2. The lingering snow in increasingly colder air is a bit of a flag. Parts of the cape may get 2-4. Most models seem to be hinting at lingering snows in eastern areas. At the very least it will feel wintry, hopefully we can get some accumulations. Euro will hopefully not stay flat and comes in a bit more juiced to keep future hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not sure about anyone else, but I for one am looking forward to a snowy afternoon and night tomorrow. Couple inches OTG.. Holidays are here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think there is a chance that my town lays down just as much salt on the roads as snow falls from the sky out of this "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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