November 27th - 28th Snow Potential

[ctsnowstorm628]

I think the Pacific area started looking more hostile too which made me sort of meh starting earlier last week...even with a stronger -NAO. I agree it looked colder, but you could already see the writing on the wall with the gradient so close and rather mild thicknesses.

I think the next couple of weeks aren't particularly interesting, but maybe something sneaks in after the 6th or 7th. I think it may not be until after the 10th for anything really meaningful in terms of a more sustained change in the regime..hence my two weeks call, but maybe in about 10 days if we are lucky.

Even NNE looks really meh until Dec 6-7, outside of the GFS's over running 1-3" for NNE 12/1...and the gradient is really soo close to the north in QC.

[HM]

I think if the Atlantic side was improved, it would have prevented the GOA trough from affecting the PNA, forcing the waves to be shorter/more amplified and a quicker retrogression in the PAC. Now, this warm up was always in the cards and unfavorable snowstorm pattern but now I'm worried that even the Dec 5-10 time frame may suffer since the NAO isn't as assertive. But I still think New England is in the game and it was really all about this area anyway for this period.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The NAM is pretty much two warm for snow in the areas that get half-decent QPF in SNE with the exception of parts of CT in the interior that are like 34F...and then when the inverted trough sets up for E MA/SE MA, near BOS and perhaps interior SE MA is cool enough for a period of snow. Back my direction its mostly just flurries...maybe a brief period of light snow.

There's nothing more exciting to me than a surprise extra .2" as the precip shield expands north while my driveway puddles up at 35f with huge rain drops.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The NAM is pretty much two warm for snow in the areas that get half-decent QPF in SNE with the exception of parts of CT in the interior that are like 34F...and then when the inverted trough sets up for E MA/SE MA, near BOS and perhaps interior SE MA is cool enough for a period of snow. Back my direction its mostly just flurries...maybe a brief period of light snow.

i haven't looked at this run but earlier nam soundings were ok for snow but would have been coming down at like 37F anyway.

moot point though.

[Damage In Tolland]

I just think back to how the Euro is too paltry in qpf with past systems. I feel pretty confident of a stripe of 1-3 inch snows interior Sne

[NJwinter23]

I said this in the Philly forum but the failure of tomorrow's wave to be at least a normal "wave breaker" means our equation for pulling the NAO block west fails (it was an important part to the equation). So obviously the gradient shifts north but I also wouldn't call the next 2 weeks a snoozer either. It still is supportive of New England winter storm events but what a bust tomorrow's POS s/w is in terms of Atlantic aid.

Yeah this was a crushing defeat for the early dec forecast. Obviously we knew the pacific was going to be poor for a while with the mid-cont likely torching in that first week...but the hope was the nao would mostly hold it off from the east coast until the pacific could improve. Now without the real nao help, its an all out furnace (albeit still mitigated and shorter lived in the northeast when compared to the rest of the nation) for the beginning of the month...timing things in this period has been an awful task lol.

but I guess you can at least hope for some snow out of it at this point. not expecting more than a coating up in southwest CT but I guess the nam says you have hope down there. Keeping the november 7th short range victory fresh in mind

[ORH_wxman]

i haven't looked at this run but earlier nam soundings were ok for snow but would have been coming down at like 37F anyway.

moot point though.

Yeah the freezing heights are actually pretty low just looking now...so it would probably snow at 36-37F...just wouldn't accumulate much, if at all unless it could come down harder...which in that case, it wouldn't be 36-37F, temps would fall to like 33F.

[Tropopause_Fold]

i haven't looked at this run but earlier nam soundings were ok for snow but would have been coming down at like 37F anyway.

moot point though.

well they were OK for a period of time. eventually they warmed anyway as the "heavy" precip tapered off.

[ctsnowstorm628]

I just think back to how the Euro is too paltry in qpf with past systems. I feel pretty confident of a stripe of 1-3 inch snows interior Sne

I wouldn't be surprised honestly if you're place or just south of 84 gets an inch or so. I don't think "stripe" would be my word of choice if expressing this to the public in the private/public sector.

There's gonna be some temp issues where the "heavier" QPF falls.

[HM]

Yeah this was a crushing defeat for the early dec forecast. Obviously we knew the pacific was going to be poor for a while with the mid-cont likely torching in that first week...but the hope was the nao would mostly hold it off from the east coast until the pacific could improve. Now without the real nao help, its an all out furnace (albeit still mitigated and shorter lived in the northeast when compared to the rest of the nation) for the beginning of the month...timing things in this period has been an awful task lol.

but I guess you can at least hope for some snow out of it at this point. not expecting more than a coating up in southwest CT but I guess the nam says you have hope down there. Keeping the november 7th short range victory fresh in mind

Yep. It looks like 3 solid warm days (Dec 2-5) before a return to seasonable levels, especially down my way. It's not totally different than what we discussed last week in my opinion and I still think the 5-10th frame holds promise as the Pacific retrogrades. Like you said, the Pacific setup hasn't really changed from initial ideas, it's the Atlantic side not performing. This is why I warned that the cyclonic wave breaking was important and that the comparisons to 2010 were a little much.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I just think back to how the Euro is too paltry in qpf with past systems. I feel pretty confident of a stripe of 1-3 inch snows interior Sne

you've already downgraded from this morning's 1-4?

[Damage In Tolland]

I wouldn't be surprised honestly if you're place or just south of 84 gets an inch or so. I don't think "stripe" would be my word of choice if expressing this to the public in the private/public sector.

There's gonna be some temp issues where the "heavier" QPF falls.

Often times we see the steady precip field 50 miles north of models.. And then all the bust and surprise posts when folks get snow who didn't think they would because they focused on qpf instead of the meteorology and reasons why it should be north

[NorEaster27]

Agreed. The next two months probably a snoozer too.

agreed

[ctsnowstorm628]

Often times we see the steady precip field 50 miles north of models.. And then all the bust and surprise posts when folks get snow who didn't think they would because they focused on qpf instead of the meteorology and reasons why it should be north

I think using the RPM might be really helpful with this system. It usually picks up on trends within the 36hr range, like 11/7. Again, I think most mets/aspiring mets look at your forecasts from a perspective of how your forecast would work in a public eye, but I think an inch is reasonable.

The only thing is, the dynamics of this are meager at best, so a steady precip field will be tough that far north.

[CoastalWx]

agreed

Of course you think that.

[N. OF PIKE]

So basically this sw screw'd the pooch, not just for tomm, but for the first half of december, awesome. At least its snowing and accumulating in stowe, outside my window

[CT Rain]

here are the two NAM vs EURO valid same time tue afternoon...euro on the left. pretty big difference:

Yes, this is exactly right. If the NAM were to be right and farther north you could envision a decent thump of warm advection snows. We know to write off waves 2 and 3 but we will have to watch wave 1 for something sneaky.

It is on its own right now and tends to overdo these things so can't give it much credence. The importance of mid level features... Like a closing off 700mb low... Cannot be understated for these kind of systems.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

this is a lot of attention given to what will ultimately be flurries/sprinkles for most of this forum i think. maybe a period of steadier light precip scraping the immediate S coast? i can't see too much more than that happening.

That is what happens when some have not seen warning criteria snows in more than a year.

[HM]

So basically this sw screw'd the pooch, not just for tomm, but for the first half of december, awesome. At least its snowing and accumulating in stowe, outside my window

I wouldn't go that far though. Really, things still look to change due to retrogression Dec 5-10 and the ongoing -AO regime. Mid-December still looks good for New England and I'm holding the course with my wording that it won't be historic but it will be close during this time frame.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't go that far though. Really, things still look to change due to retrogression Dec 5-10 and the ongoing -AO regime. Mid-December still looks good for New England and I'm holding the course with my wording that it won't be historic but it will be close during this time frame.

It's pretty telling when you look away from the indices and just look at the H5 orientation. Yeah you have a -WPO, -AO...etc..but the orientation is not ideal at all. The trough near AK and into Canada just causes a zonal expressway across the CONUS. I know you know this...but for those out there..how do you break this? Well get the PAC to retro and pump up a little +PNA ridge to shut down the PAC jet. Or, get a little -NAO going. I also don't see a ton of help from the tropics, but they aren't really hurting us either. The MJO while sort of favorable is weak..so I'm not sure it's in a hurry to break it down. I like the mid Dec time too...it just seems like the timeframe (IMHO) is probabbly near or after the 10th for anything sustained and meaningful. Maybe we can sneak something in after the 6th or 7th.

Also, I think if it were 3 weeks from now, the gradient would be further south. Expansive snowcover leading to a fight with warmer air intruding is one reason. The CONUS is pretty bare right now...climo obviously.

[OSUmetstud]

Of course you think that.

Remember when he thought Sandy wouldn't be that bad? lol

[Tropopause_Fold]

gfs tries to scrape SE zones with some precip tue night. BL concerns though with that run.

[CoastalWx]

gfs tries to scrape SE zones with some precip tue night. BL concerns though with that run.

That's a close shave with the big omega for you.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

That's a close shave with the big omega for you.

Yeah gfs although not the same as the nam does raise the stakes. If this is the most nw then nbd but if we see even subtle shifts from here on out could get interesting se ne

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah gfs although not the same as the nam does raise the stakes. If this is the most nw then nbd but if we see even subtle shifts from here on out could get interesting se ne

yeah it gets it done in a different fashion.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS almost tries to get a weak commahead over southern zones. Too bad this first s/w wasn't more amped...or the flow wasn't slightly more buckled. It would probably have been a nice little shot of snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not surpising on Gfs NW shift

[Tropopause_Fold]

uh oh Kev:

Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

After this week, Winter takes a vaca!http://www.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Tropopause_Fold]

euro is a lot colder with the late week cold shot than the gfs.

[Cold Miser]

Not surpising on Gfs NW shift

lol.