MaineJayhawk Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 you'll be lucky to get an inch But that inch will certainly be "ripping" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 this is a lot of attention given to what will ultimately be flurries/sprinkles for most of this forum i think. maybe a period of steadier light precip scraping the immediate S coast? i can't see too much more than that happening. LL might see some steady snow. I'll hope for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 NJ special on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 this is a lot of attention given to what will ultimately be flurries/sprinkles for most of this forum i think. maybe a period of steadier light precip scraping the immediate S coast? i can't see too much more than that happening. Agreed. The next two weeks probably a snoozer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 this is a lot of attention given to what will ultimately be flurries/sprinkles for most of this forum i think. maybe a period of steadier light precip scraping the immediate S coast? i can't see too much more than that happening. Yep looks like the classic situation where we see a reasonably impressive precip shield continue to dissolve as it just skirts the south coast. Leaving most of us with some sprinkles/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Agreed. The next two weeks probably a snoozer too. yep. looks that way unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yep looks like the classic situation where we see a reasonably impressive precip shield continue to dissolve as it just skirts the south coast. Leaving most of us with some sprinkles/flurries. System just hits a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 nice coastal low enhancement for nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The NWS has 1/2" or less of snow accumulation in the forecast for tuesday in my area. I hope my town is prepared with the plows and salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 System just hits a brick wall. It's still going to be really close. Precip lingers around eastern and coastal areas as the low gets going. We'll see, it's close enough to keep 1 eye on. Heck we're talking 20-40 miles for the .5" line as depicted on the NAM. It's not much of a shift N (or of course south) for this to be a bigger deal or no deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 We'll see I guess. I'm of the opinion it's more than flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 We'll see I guess. I'm of the opinion it's more than flurries It's close enough to warrant some attention. We're not talking about needing a 100 mile shift here, we're talking a dozen or two miles for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 We'll see I guess. I'm of the opinion it's more than flurries Personally, I'm shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 NJ special on the nam I'm not used to being in the spotlight with weather events but lately it has been all about NJ. The NAM clearly is stronger with the vort max and subsequent differential warm air/cyclonic advection than the global models. The GFS is laughable when looking at the vorticity fields in terms of us getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Personally, I'm shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 i'd feel better if it gained support from models other than sref members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If the NAM isn't out to lunch like it sometimes is and we see this type of gradient in the other models it's certainly something that justifies a closer watch in southern areas. Then again this is the NAM but it does appear to mirror the SREFs to some degree. Here's the "final" QPF map for the event up here with just some lingering sprinkles/flurries at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Agreed. The next two weeks probably a snoozer too. I said this in the Philly forum but the failure of tomorrow's wave to be at least a normal "wave breaker" means our equation for pulling the NAO block west fails (it was an important part to the equation). So obviously the gradient shifts north but I also wouldn't call the next 2 weeks a snoozer either. It still is supportive of New England winter storm events but what a bust tomorrow's POS s/w is in terms of Atlantic aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 BTW only because someone asked, yes it's the Soco guy (southern comfort). I like him, he has the confidence of CT Blizz standing behind the Kuro. Awesome. I want to grow up to be just like that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 i'd feel better if it gained support from models other than sref members Also, on the QPF fields, it could just be the typical NAM overdoing it, so right in line with the other models (GFS, EURO, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If the NAM isn't out to lunch like it sometimes is and we see this type of gradient in the other models it's certainly something that justifies a closer watch in southern areas. Then again this is the NAM but it does appear to mirror the SREFs to some degree. Here's the "final" QPF map for the event up here with just some lingering sprinkles/flurries at that point. Theres going to be a band of steady snow from fronto forcing to the north of main shield. Rpm clearly shows it. If its right its 1-3 south of pike interior sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Lmao, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Theres going to be a band of steady snow from fronto forcing to the north of main shield. Rpm clearly shows it. If its right its 1-3 south of pike interior sne And once you divide that qpf by 3, A lot are left with Mostly Cirrus skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Theres going to be a band of steady snow from fronto forcing to the north of main shield. Rpm clearly shows it. If its right its 1-3 south of pike interior sne I think D-2" is a good call for most of southern and central CT right now away from the immediate coast, actually. I want to see the Euro get a little juicer before going 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If the NAM isn't out to lunch like it sometimes is and we see this type of gradient in the other models it's certainly something that justifies a closer watch in southern areas. Then again this is the NAM but it does appear to mirror the SREFs to some degree. Here's the "final" QPF map for the event up here with just some lingering sprinkles/flurries at that point. the NAM tries to close off low / mid-level circulations. as a result it has a much more favorable 900-700mb S flow which causes much better advection processes to get going. it then turns the flow E and NE which allows it to capture some Atlantic moisture. obviously can't say for certain that it's wrong, but given the euro has almost no semblance of this happening, i think smart money would be on it not materializing that way. the NAM has a tendency to do this at times...you see these overdone jets develop. and given it's not a particularly nasty vortmax embedded in the flow, i'm not sure this is a good case to lean on the NAM. we'll see i guess. i'd take anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I said this in the Philly forum but the failure of tomorrow's wave to be at least a normal "wave breaker" means our equation for pulling the NAO block west fails (it was an important part to the equation). So obviously the gradient shifts north but I also wouldn't call the next 2 weeks a snoozer either. It still is supportive of New England winter storm events but what a bust tomorrow's POS s/w is in terms of Atlantic aid. I think the Pacific area started looking more hostile too which made me sort of meh starting earlier last week...even with a stronger -NAO. I agree it looked colder, but you could already see the writing on the wall with the gradient so close and rather mild thicknesses. I think the next couple of weeks aren't particularly interesting, but maybe something sneaks in after the 6th or 7th. I think it may not be until after the 10th for anything really meaningful in terms of a more sustained change in the regime..hence my two weeks call, but maybe in about 10 days if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 the NAM tries to close off low / mid-level circulations. as a result it has a much more favorable 900-700mb S flow which causes much better advection processes to get going. it then turns the flow E and NE which allows it to capture some Atlantic moisture. obviously can't say for certain that it's wrong, but given the euro has almost no semblance of this happening, i think smart money would be on it not materializing that way. the NAM has a tendency to do this at times...you see these overdone jets develop. and given it's not a particularly nasty vortmax embedded in the flow, i'm not sure this is a good case to lean on the NAM. we'll see i guess. i'd take anything at this point. I'm not a big believer in the SREFs but they did lend some support to the idea. That said, until the Euro comes around or at least the GFS and Euro come closer I'm with you that this is NBD. Still it'd be fun to see a NAM solution play out to compensate for the next 10+ of watching flocks of ducks on the nexrad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 the NAM tries to close off low / mid-level circulations. as a result it has a much more favorable 900-700mb S flow which causes much better advection processes to get going. it then turns the flow E and NE which allows it to capture some Atlantic moisture. obviously can't say for certain that it's wrong, but given the euro has almost no semblance of this happening, i think smart money would be on it not materializing that way. the NAM has a tendency to do this at times...you see these overdone jets develop. and given it's not a particularly nasty vortmax embedded in the flow, i'm not sure this is a good case to lean on the NAM. we'll see i guess. i'd take anything at this point. here are the two NAM vs EURO valid same time tue afternoon...euro on the left. pretty big difference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I'm not a big believer in the SREFs but they did lend some support to the idea. That said, until the Euro comes around or at least the GFS and Euro come closer I'm with you that this is NBD. Still it'd be fun to see a NAM solution play out to compensate for the next 10+ of watching flocks of ducks on the nexrad. Yeah, agreed. Why not? Model watching is better than nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The NAM is pretty much two warm for snow in the areas that get half-decent QPF in SNE with the exception of parts of CT in the interior that are like 34F...and then when the inverted trough sets up for E MA/SE MA, near BOS and perhaps interior SE MA is cool enough for a period of snow. Back my direction its mostly just flurries...maybe a brief period of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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