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November 27th - 28th Snow Potential


Ice Warrior commander

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Maybe a general .05-.08"

The Euro is probably going to be too light but even with a 30-50% error we're still only talking about a tenth or so. I like what NCEP had to say, not buying the 6z NAM at all.

THE FASTER IDEA MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE VERY

PROGRESSIVE FLOW...EVEN WHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL

AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE GULF STREAM.

THE UKMET REPRESENTS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE MORE ROBUST SFC

LOW IN THE NAM AND THE FASTER ELONGATED SFC LOW IN THE GFS/ECMWF.

CONSIDERING THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS...HOWEVER...WE FEEL CONFIDENT IN

LEANING TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH PRODUCE A PRESSURE FIELD THAT

APPEARS TO BE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

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Couple inches tomorrow will be festive. Nam/ rpm/ rgem/Srefs combo

Maybe your areas and hills down towards SE CT or so. I could see two things. One would be one of those deals where even though this band looks meh, someone squeaks out an inch or two in a narrow area. Two, this ticks SE and best stuff is over the water and it ends up being a fractured look on radar over land. Both seem possible, but looks like I'll look forward to the disc of the sun shining through here. Just a very boring pattern for the next two weeks or so.

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I've got the 6z NAM giving me several inches in C NJ while the 6z GFS says nope. I don't like the wind direction and I'm not sure this system is capable of appreciable banding for the NAM solution.

I woke up this morning with no heat so we got people coming out. It must be monday...

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