Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Better warm advection snows with the Tuesday s/w at the coast but still not a whole lot of room to dig. True. Pretty good improvement though in slowing down the s/w & stronger. Speaking specifically of the 42h 0z 500mb vs the 54h 12z 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 strictly speaking although it's a pretty decent change we've still got quite a bit to go. The system scoots east pretty fast after 42/45 which prevents much of anything from happening. Close though, and finally a positive move. Hope it isn't just the NAM but I tend to think not because of the initial conditions change. Much better than flurries. I would take a 1-3 then a windswept 3 day Arctic cold. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 pretty warm on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 What the heck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Nam Looks further north! precip shield looks to reach me here in southrn Nh all be it very light! at this point I will take just some light snow in the air! and hope weekend over running will give us a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The problem is the initial s/w is just a bit too strong and too close to let the later s/w dig. If you look at Saturday's 18z NAM you can see how the magic was able to happen with the weaker initial wave racing east and allowing the late s/w to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Much better than flurries. I would take a 1-3 then a windswept 3 day Arctic cold. Nice run. The NAM tends to have some issues as we all know but particularly with dampening out s/w in these fast flows. So it'll be interesting to see what the Euro/GFS and even the RGEM come up with tonight. Good stuff at least it's something to watch vs this run coming in with the "storm" 300 miles SE of us at 1020 mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Nam is so close to a moderate snow event from southern nh southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 still time to shift further north now we need gfs to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Nam is so close to a moderate snow event from southern nh southward no its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 There's just really not much room for amplification for wave 2 guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 There's just really not much room for amplification for wave 2 guys. Everything is moving very fast. I do like the little appendage of moisture the NAM has tonight over eastern areas later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Lol if the gfs and euro start to like this system again only to abandon it tomorrow afternoon, the board may suffer some casualties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 There's just really not much room for amplification for wave 2 guys. yeah, the 3 s/w's really screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Everything is moving very fast. I do like the little appendage of moisture the NAM has tonight over eastern areas later in the run. something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The NAM is much better and is still only .01 to .1"...realistically expectations still have to be low pending the rest of the guidance. Through 36-39 it looks promising and then falls apart for the reasons Ryan mentioned. We'll see what shakes at least we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 yeah, the 3 s/w's really screw us Yeah it's an unusually convoluted setup. You're right there are 3 distinct shortwaves here. It's possible s/w 1 trends stronger and stronger and we get a decent thump of warm advection snows but I think it will be tough for anything to dig farther down the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Ryan's WAA burst may be our best shot away from the s coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 a few sref members have the second low strong enough to affect nj/li/s ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 a few sref members have the second low strong enough to affect nj/li/s ct There are a bunch of SREF members with some interesting solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Maybe the Nam finally.........never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 There are a bunch of SREF members with some interesting solutions. Let's face it we generally trust the NAM the least beyond 36 hours, so providing it didn't have an issue from the outset tonight the rest of the suite should be entertaining and we may see some decently white models (not including the KFS and KURO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 In the meantime the dude whose scarf was hanging off a chairlift the first week of Nov gets daily squalls and midwinter conditions day after day. Nice 6 inch event last night followed by another 6 this week. Expect epic pictures and worries about a 2 day period with temps near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Ryan's WAA burst may be our best shot away from the s coast. I'm always giddy for weakening WAA precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I'm always giddy for weakening WAA precip. Well Kevin is staying the course so I'm sure we are in good hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I'm always giddy for weakening WAA precip. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I'm always giddy for weakening WAA precip. Set the bar low and a covering in Nov is satiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Set the bar low and a covering in Nov is satiating. Especially when it sublimates 4 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Especially when it sublimates 4 hrs later. That still would be more than you have seen in 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 That still would be more than you have seen in 2 years. How could you forget my 3.9" back in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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