weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Hm, I dunno. I am not sure I agree about a "bust"? - eh, not really. It was iffy at best at any time over the last 3 days of on-and-off 'ism from the models as a whole. There really was limited spatial support for this, and still there isn't whether something happens or not. There is some trough amplitude passing through - snow quall here or there? As a big fan of teleconnectors and their use, there wasn't much signal there either - though that does not preclude systems occurring in "noise". For that, I was just sort of biding my time in wait - not shocked though that this thing is averaging progressive. The flow is just too fast - I've tried and tried and tried to hit this aspect hard over the last 5 years that when the balanced mid level flow is above 60 or 70 kts prior to the arrival of S/W -related jet dynamics, forget it. But that's just one factor. As Will also mentioned, there are other antecedent missing clues - such as no block and the L/W axis being a bit too ...etc. take one's pick. You don't absolutely have to have any one of these accounted for, but at least one certainly helps. Otherwise, can't really get pissed for taking a hit on 19 playing black-jack. I think most would agree (fairly) that a bust requires something more "certainty" that than fails. This really wasn't close to having that sense of assurance ending inexplicably. One thing I noticed, it seemed a bit quick to start slapping backs with congrats on this, possibly more a reflection of wanting certain things to happen. But I don't think this qualifies as a bust. I tell you what, going to bed in late January 1987 with 3 days worth of Walter Drag hammered blizzard warnings scrolling by on the weather channel, only to wake up with partly sunny, windy conditions with a scant powdery inch strewn? Now THAT is a bust!! I think (for the general population) its a bit of a blessing in disguise that they bite the "don't get emotionally invested" bullet early. It'll make you iron hulled. Going forward, we might just cook up some waa snows around D6 or 6.5. Nothing major, but if out and about doing holiday stuff there might be some spirits in the air. I will say though, I don't like the fact that the AO is tanking so robustly in the means, yet the EPO neutralizes and the NAO is looking only so-so negative. What that means is that the -AO off-load might favor the other side of the Hemisphere. I hate that - it did that for the first 2 to 3 weeks of January 2007, and perpetuate StormChaserChucks fantastic 0 winter call unnecessarily too longly. Ha. Seriously, the AO dropped from nearly +4SD to -3SD in a matter of a week and a half, and went cryo on their Eurasian asses. It finally worked around, but not before giving 2 weeks of additional warmth to a year that deserved no more. It's okay though - little did we know that 2011-2012 would come along be more embarrassing to winters than "Sanchass" figuring the best Check-down option on a blown hand-off play was to instead run face-long into the ass of one of this lineman. I still can't for the life of me ... in between tears of hilarity ... figure out what was going through Mark's mind. ...Other than Brandon Moore's butt, of course. In fact, if you are a Jets fan, you don't get to post anymore, ONE YEAR! That was just sooo unearthly humiliating that all fans of NY should be teased and harassed until they develop an eating disorder. The winter of 2011-2012 was worse than that. In 2nd place, 1994-1995; what saved that year of yestermisery was a PNA flexer coastal bomb ....I think it was Feb 10. It was also brutally cold for like 2 or 3 days after that. Rest of the year sucked, but hey: not nearly like the gravity well of hell that was last year. In 3rd place was any one of the winters of the late 1980s - just seemed we went through a period where HAARP experiments were actually succeeding at ruining normal seasonality while toppling the Berlin Wall. Weird 5 years. The thing is, the seasonal snow totals may not have been terrible, but it was just the horror bust era, when models must have been preprogrammed to invent ghost storms and the gullible Meteorological community just couldn't wait to bite down on them. One or two winters in there we suffered several Cape Cod clip blitzes while areas that were supposed to have gone biblical were shut out of the church so to speak. Imagine being under a blizzard watch for 3 days, a blizzard warning for 1 day, with scrolling warnings about life and property and power and communications, and general infrastructural collaps...and on and on and oh my god... then waking up to a dulcet partly sunny knock on the door and your old man going "you gonna be late to school, or what?! herumph herumph." I don't want to hear about busts - you have no idea. Did you forget 2001-02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Did you forget 2001-02? '99-'00 was pretty awful too around here in sneaky fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 '99-'00 was pretty awful too around here in sneaky fashion. Ha - I was in Waltham in 99-2002 and when I moved there from Acton, I pretty much lowered my expectations to nill - I guess for that I don't really recall. But yeah, someone should make a list of dead ratter winters, but instead of just lower snow totals, the ones that did it as annoyingly as imaginatively possible. it might be an interesting study ...albeit perhaps a bit subjective as to the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 '99-'00 was pretty awful too around here in sneaky fashion. But at least that winter had the month long plunge into deep winter with most of our snow during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well, some light snow, snowshowers/flurries in the air down here later Tuesday and tuesday night, maybe a dusting to covering. Not bad at all, especially considering what happened earlier this month, mood flakes are welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Probably should keep an eye on the over running possibility next weekend, Some of the models have been showing this as most have been focused on the weds system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Probably should keep an eye on the over running possibility next weekend, Some of the models have been showing this as most have been focused on the weds system Gfs looks better this run for the interior and up by you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Gfs looks better this run for the interior and up by you guys! Yea Joe, Not as good as 12z was but its out there in time right now so watching the trend is really all that need to be done right now, Definitely something to watch going forward as there won't be much else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 That norlun trough should be interesting to watch and see where trends take it. Latest have it between Nova Scotia and Cape Cod, MA now. I hate relying on these troughs to give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I wouldnt count on anything from that That norlun trough should be interesting to watch and see where trends take it. Latest have it between Nova Scotia and Cape Cod, MA now. I hate relying on these troughs to give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yea Joe, Not as good as 12z was but its out there in time right now so watching the trend is really all that need to be done right now, Definitely something to watch going forward as there won't be much else I would be optimistic if I were in the interior or up your way, models usually like to dislodge cold a bit too quickly. Even if its snow to freezing drizzle or something, its a win in late Novie early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I wouldnt count on anything from that The best instability is offshore anyway for that. Best wind convergence is also offshore. Can't rule out some light snow for the coast from it, but its unlikely it would be enough to accumulate. Best chance for snow out of this will be if we get enough of the weak ML fronto to produce a band of light snow over the area...maybe a coating to an inch, but that is pretty iffy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 whats the current kuro forecast? 4-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 whats the current kuro forecast? 4-8"? That does not inc the loli's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 KURO stays the course until 00z Euro. If Euro is still a lesser hit..we can adjust to 1-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 KURO stays the course until 00z Euro. If Euro is still a lesser hit..we can adjust to 1-4 I still have a faint hope for the 0z. People focus on "sampling" on s/w's which theoretically would mean more realistic solutions when the s/w's get near/over land. That hasn't seemed to have as much of an influence in the upgrades of the last few years. About the only time we seem to have issues particularly when timing is critical as it is in this case is with systems traversing the northern rockies. So if we're going to see any significant movement I'd expect it to be tonight through the morning runs as the first s/w exits into the plains. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 ZURO for 2? Can't be too hard on Kev with this one though.. All the models struggled to a good degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 NAM is out to 24. The initial pulse is definitely further north vs the 18z through that time period. Stronger, slower mid level features thru 24. Can't read much into it *yet* EDIT: Looks way better than the 18z. It's really odd how often it seems to happen with the s/w's up over the northern rockies with the NCEP guidance in particular. 0z NAM gives hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Lol, the weenies on the bus go round and round, round and round. More robust again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 too bad kev went to sleep. 21z srefs have some ok probs for snow over that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Lol, the weenies on the bus go round and round, round and round. More robust again? Looks a ton better for the areas that were getting skimmed. Changes were obvious right away with the handling of the s/w's. Like I said earlier the models seem to do a better job with these features aside of when they are near the northern rockies and I have no idea why. I half expect this is going to be a good suite at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yeah the NAM does look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 everytime I leave it snows here so I was thinking in the back of my head there was a good shot for everyone around here albany ny ftl!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 SREFs had a boost over se ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yeah the NAM does look better. Really encouraged by the changes right from the getgo. Let's hope it carries through and is real. We've stopped the bleeding and maybe now there's an opportunity for things to improve. At the very least mood flakes are back in the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Cold and snowy, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 SREFs had a boost over se ma. Sref @ bwi? Thoughts for here? I came back today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 still looks meager at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 strictly speaking although it's a pretty decent change we've still got quite a bit to go. The system scoots east pretty fast after 42/45 which prevents much of anything from happening. Close though, and finally a positive move. Hope it isn't just the NAM but I tend to think not because of the initial conditions change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Better warm advection snows with the Tuesday s/w at the coast but still not a whole lot of room to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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