powderfreak Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Can we end the business of people saying the s/w needs to be sampled first? I think the18z GFS did a decent job sniffing this out. Yeah amazing pick up by the 18z GFS.... guess its not always full of crap like most seem to imply, lol. I can't believe that yesterday this thread was getting 2 posts a minute and it was looking good for high end advisory and warning snows. Still only November 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The pattern heading into Early DEC almost looks like a repeat at 500mb that we just had last 2 weeks. So I guess reload around Mid-Late DEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah amazing pick up by the 18z GFS.... guess its not always full of crap like most seem to imply, lol. I can't believe that yesterday this thread was getting 2 posts a minute and it was looking good for high end advisory and warning snows. Still only November 25th. There are times where the actual sampling may cause a s/w to be more enhanced, but it's more referring to comments that the storm will automatically appear when the s/w is sampled by the upper air network. That's just not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 There are times where the actual sampling may cause a s/w to be more enhanced, but it's more referring to comments that the storm will automatically appear when the s/w is sampled by the upper air network. That's just not true. Tip seems to have a good handle on when sampling issues come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Tip seems to have a good handle on when sampling issues come in It has to do with the Pacific flow and sometimes there are issues, but these issues are improving. It may cause some shifts in models, but it's rare to see a 06z model show a whiff and then the 12z runs to come 200 miles NW within 60hrs. Can it happen...sure once in a while..but remote sensing is getting better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Will not being on was pretty tell tale on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Will not being on was pretty tell tale on this one It's not worth the time if you don't need to be. I'm at work and now very quiet, so nothing much else going on, but the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It's not worth the time if you don't need to be. I'm at work and now very quiet, so nothing much else going on, but the forum. Yeah, You are in a different situation, This just passes the time away for you in this instance, Sitting here yesterday when the system shifted south at 12z and being on the northern fringe up here beforehand was pretty telling of what i was going to expect, Its one thing if your sitting well within the middle of the guidance and see some shifting one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 What about that shortwave over WA/OR? What kind of impact is expected to have on our southern stream disturbance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 What a bust. I was actually texting with zwyts yesterday and made the comment "this setup is extremely unclassic for a snow event"....in retrospect that should have been a larger red flag. Difficult to get a good system when the flow is as zonal as it is and the trough axis is as far east as it was. For a coastal, we want a larger ridge out west and usually at least some mild blocking out front....for a SWFE, we typcially want the trough axis further west to let this run up the OH valley....neither of these requirements were really met, so we were trying to thread a very small needle. We still may see some light snow out of this, but very unlikely anyone picks up more than an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 What a bust. I was actually texting with zwyts yesterday and made the comment "this setup is extremely unclassic for a snow event"....in retrospect that should have been a larger red flag. Difficult to get a good system when the flow is as zonal as it is and the trough axis is as far east as it was. For a coastal, we want a larger ridge out west and usually at least some mild blocking out front....for a SWFE, we typcially want the trough axis further west to let this run up the OH valley....neither of these requirements were really met, so we were trying to thread a very small needle. We still may see some light snow out of this, but very unlikely anyone picks up more than an inch or so. It was, but when the models came in stronger and a little more separate with those s/w's, it looked like we could pull off an interior advisory anyways...doesn't really need to be to be textbook for that...but what a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro pulled a Mark Sanchez on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro pulled a Mark Sanchez on this one Well even Tom Brady throws a pick. It did pretty well aside from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It was, but when the models came in stronger and a little more separate with those s/w's, it looked like we could pull off an interior advisory anyways...doesn't really need to be to be textbook for that...but what a bust. Yeah I mean you can't just go against guidance when they all start agreeing...but perhaps it should have been slightly more cautious. It was still about 84 hours out afteralll....getting closer, but still far enough out to see some pretty large swings. At any ratem, its not like we lost a huge system. Could have been an advisory snow, but I'll hope for some mood snow to whiten the ground...otherwise remind everyone it is November 25th, lol. We have a lot of winter to look forward to and it looks like December will have a good pattern...at least for a good chunk of the middle of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well even Tom Brady throws a pick. It did pretty well aside from yesterday. That's what i was referring to, If it held its ground from its last couple days of runs in which it looks to of had the right solution this would have been more tempered, As soon as it shifted NW everyone pig piled it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah I mean you can't just go against guidance when they all start agreeing...but perhaps it should have been slightly more cautious. It was still about 84 hours out afteralll....getting closer, but still far enough out to see some pretty large swings. At any ratem, its not like we lost a huge system. Could have been an advisory snow, but I'll hope for some mood snow to whiten the ground...otherwise remind everyone it is November 25th, lol. We have a lot of winter to look forward to and it looks like December will have a good pattern...at least for a good chunk of the middle of it. Kind of bummed though as I was hoping for a whitener. The search for something to go right continues. I pulled a few off the ledge in the other thread...I think some forgot that we were supposed to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 That's what i was referring to, If it held its ground from its last couple days of runs in which it looks to of had the right solution this would have been more tempered Oh yeah I hear you. At this stage, I;m just happy to get some cool air and temper those SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Kind of bummed though as I was hoping for a whitener. The search for something to go right continues. I pulled a few off the ledge in the other thread...I think some forgot that we were supposed to warm up. Without getting crabby today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Oh yeah I hear you. At this stage, I;m just happy to get some cool air and temper those SSTs. As some may not care for the dry cold, I almost welcome it as long as the rest of the winter is not the same right now early on, We are usually fighting trying to freeze saturated ground every year and over flowing bogs in december, If we can get some of this to freeze up before the snow flies all the better for us sled heads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Without getting crabby today As long as Logan 11's fields got whitened by rotting LES...I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 SREFs came in quite a bit more amped. Go figure, lol. Nothing like the runs yesterday but a large part of the area could still get an inch or two. Not off the table yet even if it looks somewhat bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 SREFs came in quite a bit more amped. Go figure, lol. Nothing like the runs yesterday but a large part of the area could still get an inch or two. Not off the table yet even if it looks somewhat bleak. Total QPF looks close to the 12z ec ens mean. 0.10" near the MA/NH border and 0.25" scraping the Cape to MTP. 0.05" gets up to around here. That's way south of 00z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I don't care if its nov 25th or not I'm disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I don't care if its nov 25th or not I'm disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I don't care if its nov 25th or not I'm disappointed Go fire up the snow gun, That should cheer you up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Go fire up the snow gun, That should cheer you up Gonna in a few hours, the by is nice and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Gonna in a few hours, the by is nice and white. Take some pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I will in the am, I've tried a live feed but the laptop webcam doesn't work well in thr dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Ya it stinks whenever a storm looks white then misses, no matter the time of year,bc who knows how many weeks this winter we have a favorable winter setup, hopefully alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Hm, I dunno. I am not sure I agree about a "bust"? - eh, not really. It was iffy at best at any time over the last 3 days of on-and-off 'ism from the models as a whole. There really was limited spatial support for this, and still there isn't whether something happens or not. There is some trough amplitude passing through - snow quall here or there? As a big fan of teleconnectors and their use, there wasn't much signal there either - though that does not preclude systems occurring in "noise". For that, I was just sort of biding my time in wait - not shocked though that this thing is averaging progressive. The flow is just too fast - I've tried and tried and tried to hit this aspect hard over the last 5 years that when the balanced mid level flow is above 60 or 70 kts prior to the arrival of S/W -related jet dynamics, forget it. But that's just one factor. As Will also mentioned, there are other antecedent missing clues - such as no block and the L/W axis being a bit too ...etc. take one's pick. You don't absolutely have to have all of these accounted for, but at least one certainly helps. Otherwise, can't really get pissed for taking a hit on 19 playing black-jack. I think most would agree (fairly) that a bust requires something with more "certainty" that than fails. This really wasn't close to having that sense of assurance ending inexplicably. One thing I noticed, it seemed a bit quick to start slapping backs with congrats on this, possibly more a reflection of wanting certain things to happen. But I don't think this qualifies as a bust. I tell you what, going to bed in late January 1987 with 3 days worth of Walter Drag hammered blizzard warnings scrolling by on the weather channel, only to wake up with partly sunny, windy conditions with a scant powdery inch strewn? Now THAT is a bust!! I think (for the general population) its a bit of a blessing in disguise that they bite the "don't get emotionally invested" bullet early. It'll make you iron hulled. Going forward, we might just cook up some waa snows around D6 or 6.5. Nothing major, but if out and about doing holiday stuff there might be some spirits in the air. I will say though, I don't like the fact that the AO is tanking so robustly in the means, yet the EPO neutralizes and the NAO is looking only so-so negative. What that means is that the -AO off-load might favor the other side of the Hemisphere. I hate that - it did that for the first 2 to 3 weeks of January 2007, and perpetuated StormChaserChucks fantastic 0 winter call unnecessarily too longly. Ha. Seriously, the AO dropped from nearly +4SD to -3SD in a matter of a week and a half, and went cryo on their Eurasian asses. It finally worked around, but not before giving 2 weeks of additional warmth to a year that deserved no more. It's okay though - little did we know that 2011-2012 would come along and be more embarrassing to winters than "Sanchass" figuring the best Check-down option on a blown hand-off play was to instead run face-long into the ass of one of this lineman. I still can't for the life of me ... in between tears of hilarity ... figure out what was going through Mark's mind. ...Other than Brandon Moore's butt, of course. In fact, if you are a Jets fan, you don't get to post anymore, ONE YEAR! That was just sooo unearthly humiliating that all fans of NY should be teased and harassed until they develop an eating disorder. The winter of 2011-2012 was worse than that. In 2nd place, 1994-1995; what saved that year of yestermisery was a PNA flexer coastal bomb ....I think it was Feb 10. It was also brutally cold for like 2 or 3 days after that. Rest of the year sucked, but hey: not nearly like the gravity well of hell that was last year. In 3rd place was any one of the winters of the late 1980s - just seemed we went through a period where HAARP experiments were actually succeeding at ruining normal seasonality while toppling the Berlin Wall. Weird 5 years. The thing is, the seasonal snow totals may not have been terrible, but it was just the horror bust era, when models must have been preprogrammed to invent ghost storms and the gullible Meteorological community just couldn't wait to bite down on them. One or two winters in there we suffered several Cape Cod clip blitzes while areas that were supposed to have gone biblical were shut out of the church so to speak. Imagine being under a blizzard watch for 3 days, a blizzard warning for 1 day, with scrolling warnings about life and property and power and communications, and general infrastructural collaps...and on and on and oh my god... then waking up to a dulcet partly sunny knock on the door and your old man going "you gonna be late to school, or what?! herumph herumph." I don't want to hear about busts - you have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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