ChrisM Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It's creepy when people post kevins tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 GGEM has more separation between Disturbances, less phasing = out to sea. Less Separation = more phasing and closer to the coastline solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It's creepy when people post kevins tweets ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 TWC downgraded their 3" snowfall forecast for tuesday in my area and the revised forecast has snowshowers instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Go on NCEP and loop H5 vorticity and that will tell you the problem. You will need two things to happen and it's not an easy thing to do in 54 hrs. 1) There needs to be space from the s/w that gives us a little -SN on the GFS Tuesday aftn, and the s/w that spawns cyclogenesis off the East Coast. 2) This s/w that spawns cyclogenesis also needs to be stronger. It's possible a small combo of both could perhaps boost totals a little south of the Pike, but if you are expecting widespread advisory or better, it's going to be difficult imo. I'll give it through the night runs to put away the generator. If history is a guide - and it may not be this winter - we should see that trailing s/w separate a bit in later runs but it may not matter if the leading s/w comes in stronger. Either way I think this is a minimal threat to a small area in SE NE as of now. I'll be happy with and only expect some showers/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 25 minutes until the final nail is in the coffin. Hell, gimme a lakes cutter to track at this point...this is beyond boring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just looking at the 0z Euro vs the other 12z models. It's a pretty sharp contrast in how fast/flat the s/w is on the new NCEP guidance. It's almost non-existent compared to the old Euro. On the old 78h 0z Euro you had a 30-35 unit max over us at 500mb...the GFS barely a ripple in favor or two pulses diving through PA and the MS Valley. We'll see, wouldn't be the first time NCEP models were miserable at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well Kevin gave Ryan crap for not going with 4-8" of snow....this is why you can't be bullish with all the modeling in disagreement. Sounds like maybe Ryan needs an apology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well Kevin gave Ryan crap for not going with 4-8" of snow....this is why you can't be bullish with all the modeling in disagreement. Sounds like maybe Ryan needs an apology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well Kevin gave Ryan crap for not going with 4-8" of snow....this is why you can't be bullish with all the modeling in disagreement. Sounds like maybe Ryan needs an apology? I think so, Never spike the ball until your in the endzone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well Kevin gave Ryan crap for not going with 4-8" of snow....this is why you can't be bullish with all the modeling in disagreement. Sounds like maybe Ryan needs an apology? I never gave him crap for not calling for 4-8. He had been sending nasty FB posts and Tweets. Since Sandy he has struggled with forecasts. I don't think he'd deny that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think so, Never spike the ball until your in the endzone The worst part is that I was being bullish yesterday on snow. Had to back off big time by the 11pm show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just looking at the 0z Euro vs the other 12z models. It's a pretty sharp contrast in how fast/flat the s/w is on the new NCEP guidance. It's almost non-existent compared to the old Euro. On the old 78h 0z Euro you had a 30-35 unit max over us at 500mb...the GFS barely a ripple in favor or two pulses diving through PA and the MS Valley. We'll see, wouldn't be the first time NCEP models were miserable at 500mb. The euro would be best case for us...though that's not saying much as it was pretty skimpy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 There were a lot of you guys yesterday that felt real good about this storm after 12z though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I never gave him crap for not calling for 4-8. He had been sending nasty FB posts and Tweets. Since Sandy he has struggled with forecasts. I don't think he'd deny that lol what nasty FB posts? I remember the 2 funny tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 There were a lot of you guys yesterday that felt real good about this storm after 12z though Myself included...or at least something other than cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 There were a lot of you guys yesterday that felt real good about this storm after 12z though Oh yeah I did for sure. That was short lived lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 lol what nasty FB posts? I remember the 2 funny tweets. The meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Any reports of that snow in W CT reaching the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I never gave him crap for not calling for 4-8. He had been sending nasty FB posts and Tweets. Since Sandy he has struggled with forecasts. I don't think he'd deny that I wasn't referring to yesterday really..just the previous days before. I think we all felt like something was in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Myself included...or at least something other than cirrus. Yeah, But you also mentioned how you felt somehow you may get screwed so you did have some doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The meltdown You're in the midst of one now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Its been a tough road for the KFALLS model after a good early November run. The tday week storm bust, the only 50 in sw ct last wed-fri bust, the 4-8 inches of snow for Tuesday bust and of course winter locking in on the 25th prediction even though its clear December will be mild to start. I am sure major tweaking will be done, and KFALLS will be up and running at optimum capacity as we head into the xmas season, even KFALLS is not perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 You're in the midst of one now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah, But you also mentioned how you felt somehow you may get screwed so you did have some doubts To be honest, I was thinking from a ptype perspective. I mean yeah...nothing was off the table, but I became more concerned about ptype. Kind of hard to think we would get whiffed when the guidance made such a jump the night before...something that has signified a trend with past events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Going to be a very long next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 There is one KURO member in the 12z GEFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Any reports of that snow in W CT reaching the ground? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Any reports of that snow in W CT reaching the ground? Not here Kevin, just some whispy cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 RPM delivers a 1-4 inch type snowfall pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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