Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 If I'm wrong then I go down in flames. Something about this whole setup seems suspicious. It may take till 00z but I think many folks will end up pleasantly surprised. There's room to amplify a bit more . If the GFS with its notorious SE bias gives us an inch or 2, that means stay the course for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I want to shake you violently in disagreement. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Southern stream disturbance ready to make landfall along the Baja, Mexico coastline. I think this system will bring GOM into the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 That's for his southern portion of SNE. Here's the storm for the other half of the SNE geography. Well just saying what it shows since southern areas need lovin' too. It's Novie....I really wouldn't worry about missing an advisory snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Don't compare this setup to '05. They'll kill ya in here. Gotcha, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I want to shake you violently in disagreement. Not in synoptic setup, but in the fact that it was south until 24-48 hours out. Even the big ones were forecasted at some point to be out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Southern stream disturbance ready to make landfall along the Baja, Mexico coastline. I think this system will bring GOM into the picture. Steve D thinks the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Not in synoptic setup, but in the fact that it was south until 24-48 hours out. Even the big ones were forecasted at some point to be out to sea. This system is a mess. You've mentioned Jan 05 a couple of times the past few days I believe and that storm shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath as this disorganized piece of feces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 To today's model runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 This system is a mess. You've mentioned Jan 05 a couple of times the past few days I believe and that storm shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath as this disorganized piece of feces. Your right, my bad. It shouldn't have been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 To today's model runs so far That was an ugly run of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Go on NCEP and loop H5 vorticity and that will tell you the problem. You will need two things to happen and it's not an easy thing to do in 54 hrs. 1) There needs to be space from the s/w that gives us a little -SN on the GFS Tuesday aftn, and the s/w that spawns cyclogenesis off the East Coast. 2) This s/w that spawns cyclogenesis also needs to be stronger. It's possible a small combo of both could perhaps boost totals a little south of the Pike, but if you are expecting widespread advisory or better, it's going to be difficult imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Fast zonal flow becomes oriented SW to NE which lends me to believe that the flow will support a closer to the coastline solution. Arctic jet disturbance tries to get involved, but right now its a tad too late on the models for the storm to bomb out soon enough. It will take time to get this solution figured out with two disturbances in the arctic and northern jets, but also there is a southern stream system that weakens, but provides GOM moisture to the overall system. There is enough on the table to be weary of it for those of us on the Coastline. The only comparison I ever tried to make with 05 was that it was forecasted to be offshore and out to sea in the 72 hour time frame, so anything can happen and future runs solidified the vort max over time in the 24-48 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 ggem is horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 ill be in albany ny all this coming week again so bank on it lol lol https://twitter.com/...736296970100736 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Go on NCEP and loop H5 vorticity and that will tell you the problem. You will need two things to happen and it's not an easy thing to do in 54 hrs. 1) There needs to be space from the s/w that gives us a little -SN on the GFS Tuesday aftn, and the s/w that spawns cyclogenesis off the East Coast. 2) This s/w that spawns cyclogenesis also needs to be stronger. It's possible a small combo of both could perhaps boost totals a little south of the Pike, but if you are expecting widespread advisory or better, it's going to be difficult imo. The 1st one really screws up the 2nd one from having any chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Go on NCEP and loop H5 vorticity and that will tell you the problem. You will need two things to happen and it's not an easy thing to do in 54 hrs. 1) There needs to be space from the s/w that gives us a little -SN on the GFS Tuesday aftn, and the s/w that spawns cyclogenesis off the East Coast. 2) This s/w that spawns cyclogenesis also needs to be stronger. It's possible a small combo of both could perhaps boost totals a little south of the Pike, but if you are expecting widespread advisory or better, it's going to be difficult imo. Even with the big storms of the past there were times before hand that we doubted if we would get it at all. I think this is no different. Low and behold the setup is extremely different, therefore there is no comparison. I'm just saying I'm not expecting much, but its possible that the things that need to happen for us to get something more are possible. I believe we get a benchmark track, as flow aligns SW to NE as the vortex nw of the Maritimes moves northwestward and weakens with time. We just need the shortwave in question to be stronger than modeled and that is not asking for much since it won't be sampled for another 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 ggem is horrific Ya, doesn't even get precip to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 ggem is horrific That was included in my FU post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Even with the big storms of the past there were times before hand that we doubted if we would get it at all. I think this is no different. Low and behold the setup is extremely different, therefore there is no comparison. I'm just saying I'm not expecting much, but its possible that the things that need to happen for us to get something more are possible. I believe we get a benchmark track, as flow aligns SW to NE as the vortex nw of the Maritimes moves northwestward and weakens with time. We just need the shortwave in question to be stronger than modeled and that is not asking for much since it won't be sampled for another 24 hours or so. Well there probably won't be zero QPF where you are, but it's pretty meager looking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 lol https://twitter.com/...736296970100736 Kevin is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 12z GEFS might be a tad more generous compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Kevin does stay with this ship, even when it's capsizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Kevin does stay with this ship, even when it's split in half yes he does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Kevin is the best. I think that the only advisory type snowfall south of the pike would be out of the snowguns at Ski Sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi GFS trending north,should continue to do so as it sorts out confusion..though day 3 on still plays games Post/video onhttp://weatherbell.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think that the only advisory type snowfall south of the pike would be out of the snowguns at Ski Sundown. I don't think anyone on the east coast sees much out of this, unless things change drastically over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi GFS trending north,should continue to do so as it sorts out confusion..though day 3 on still plays games Post/video onhttp://weatherbell.com Well that settles it then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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