CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 interesting that it was the 18z gfs that first had a whiff yesterday - if indeed this does end up flat. i know the off-hour runs are always kind of laughed at but not sure they are as bad as we always say they are. I don't buy that myth at all anymore. Remote sensing is pretty darn good now. I know weenies still use that, but it's not really valid like it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well, I admit to being one of those folks getting all giddy for a couple of sets of runs. My instincts told me to look for sneaky caution flags... Should have listened. We will see what happens today. Maybe Phil and Messenger get to prance Caution can be a good thing...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Nice to see Euro/Euro ens,Ukie all on board. I was surprised to see so many folks jumping off cliffs after only GFS went east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I don't buy that myth at all anymore. Remote sensing is pretty darn good now. I know weenies still use that, but it's not really valid like it used to be. DT fwiw always said it counts just like every other run. Oh well, its november. Lets enjoy the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well, I admit to being one of those folks getting all giddy for a couple of sets of runs. My instincts told me to look for sneaky caution flags... Should have listened. We will see what happens today. Maybe Phil and Messenger get to prance Yup, that's why I just sat quietly the last few days and watched. Until the atmosphere shows me something besides cold and dry that's how I'll lean for every potential modeled storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just going back and reading the posts..I mean WTF? Are you guys serious? Euro and Ukie both are nice hits south of Pike.. I honesty would have thought folks would have learned by now. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just going back and reading the posts..I mean WTF? Are you guys serious? Euro and Ukie both are nice hits south of Pike.. I honesty would have thought folks would have learned by now. ugh It's a good idea to wait until the 12z runs to come in for areas south of the Pike. All we said was that the overnight runs weren't that great for a large part of SNE. That's the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro op gave kevin an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I mean this sounds bad to you lol? HOWEVER THE NEW 00Z UKMET/00Z GEFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT A MORE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH YIELDING STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT THRU OUT THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MARGINALLY COLD BLYR MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 interesting that it was the 18z gfs that first had a whiff yesterday - if indeed this does end up flat. i know the off-hour runs are always kind of laughed at but not sure they are as bad as we always say they are. Word on the street is that the dissing of the off-hour runs is no longer appropriate given the reliabiliyt of the data now being digested in them. Yup, that's why I just sat quietly the last few days and watched. Until the atmosphere shows me something besides cold and dry that's how I'll lean for every potential modeled storm. I didn't sit quietly, but I had Nov 7-8 front and center in my mind. Dry begets dry. Probably will be able to walk across the pond--or at least on much of it--by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro op gave kevin an inch. But we know how that works..you shift the solid qpf 50-100 miles north..It happens everytime. It happened Nov 7th. That gave me an inch or 2..and in reality that needed to be shifted well north up past ORH.. All I'm saying. Folks just go way way overboard with this woe is me..the storm isn't coming. You stay the course,,and look at the meteorological reasons why it should come north and factor in model bias and past performances..and you're left with what should be a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I don't buy that myth at all anymore. Remote sensing is pretty darn good now. I know weenies still use that, but it's not really valid like it used to be. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 KURO not budging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I mean this sounds bad to you lol? HOWEVER THE NEW 00Z UKMET/00Z GEFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT A MORE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH YIELDING STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT THRU OUT THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MARGINALLY COLD BLYR MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. You folks down south are still in the game. But for most of the region (not most of the population) there's going to be a whole lotta cirrus happenin' out there. Don't forget that the GGEM also made a sizeable shift toward meh. Not quite there yet, but it did move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 KURO not budging I don't do anything based on US modelling. Euro looks good overall..It just got skimpy on qpf,,which we know it can do from time to time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Word on the street is that the dissing of the off-hour runs is no longer appropriate given the reliabiliyt of the data now being digested in them. I didn't sit quietly, but I had Nov 7-8 front and center in my mind. Dry begets dry. Probably will be able to walk across the pond--or at least on much of it--by the end of the week. The high giveth and the high taketh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro op gave kevin an inch. was it even that generous? .05" at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 But we know how that works..you shift the solid qpf 50-100 miles north..It happens everytime. It happened Nov 7th. That gave me an inch or 2..and in reality that needed to be shifted well north up past PRH.. All I'm saying. Folks just go way way overboard with this woe is me..the storm isn't coming. You stay the course,,and look at the meteorological reasons why it should come north and factor in model bias and past performances..and you're left with what should be a decent snow event. That's not why it happened. Everything shifted eastward which brought deformation banding to your area and Will. The problem is, there are meteorological reasons why it can remain progressive. You can't always assume it comes north. Maybe it will which is why you probably should wait until 12z runs....but there are reasons why the 00z runs were pretty meh. You have to keep an open mind to all possibilities. For my area, I don't feel great about it, but I'm close enough so that I'm going to see how the 12z runs go before making any determinations. For areas like Hubbdave and MPM...it's going to be more difficult so their emotions are worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 was it even that generous? .05" at BDL It looked like close to 0.1" from what I could tell..maybe like 0.08"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 03z srefs get the .25" line up to about a nyc to bos line. .5" way out by ack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 That's not why it happened. Everything shifted eastward which brought deformation banding to your area and Will. The problem is, there are meteorological reasons why it can remain progressive. You can't always assume it comes north. Maybe it will which is why you probably should wait until 12z runs....but there are reasons why the 00z runs were pretty meh. You have to keep an open mind to all possibilities. For my area, I don't feel great about it, but I'm close enough so that I'm going to see how the 12z runs go before making any determinations. For areas like Hubbdave and MPM...it's going to be more difficult so their emotions are worthy. How far north do Euro ens have precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The high giveth and the high taketh The wind will make all the surfaces bumpy. Extra traction for walking across, but sucks for skating. I don't do anything based on US modelling. Euro looks good overall..It just got skimpy on qpf,,which we know it can do from time to time when a modeled storm sh*ts the bed. just joking. We'll see at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 It looked like close to 0.1" from what I could tell..maybe like 0.08"? i trust wsi stuff. the accu-wx-stuff was .01, .03, .01 over 6 hr intervals. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 How far north do Euro ens have precip? I don't have the actual amounts, but it has probs of 40-50% of 0.1" QPF to you and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 i trust wsi stuff. the accu-wx-stuff was .01, .03, .01 over 6 hr intervals. lol. Well a few hundredths is close enough..lol. I guess the point is that it doesn't have much. We'll see what happens in a few hours...at least you stand the best shot at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Another hour or 2 until Debbie Hanrahan comes on..in his footy jammies with square in the back buttal area with button..and really tries to bring folks down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 A track like this yields a decent snow event for many folks in SNE LTHOUGH MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE CONVERGING...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL GET. THE GENERAL OPERATIONAL AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK JUST SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBER VARIABILITY EXPLAINED BY TIMING ISSUES AND SOME OF THE VARIABILITY EXPLAINED BY PROXIMITY OF TRACK TO COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Another hour or 2 until Debbie Hanrahan comes on..in his footy jammies with square in the back buttal area with button..and really tries to bring folks down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well a few hundredths is close enough..lol. I guess the point is that it doesn't have much. We'll see what happens in a few hours...at least you stand the best shot at something. Anything frozen this time of year is just gravy for me. Seeing flakes is a win. Hopeful to pull off some more late week with that cold shot and N flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 At least scooter doesn't have to worry about little Vort Max Noguiera being born in a snow event. Should time out to the torch period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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