dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Dry begets dry is the pattern I'll ride until the atmosphere says otherwise. So is the 0z GFS no snow for nobody in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 loli's to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 0z GFS is better than 18z, even though that's not sayin' much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 GFS nada Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 This is a really dramatic shift to nothing. 7 or 8 years ago stuff like this happened all the time but this is unusual these days. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Third shortwave trough is a bit more amped this run, hopefully its starting a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Going to make a run at another inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well not the best suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well not the best suite so far. Just keep saying november over and over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well the Ukie looks like it would be a half decent event for SNE...at least a few inches anyway....if we extrapolate beyond 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Just keep saying november over and over again I'm fine with a miss instead of 20 miles west getting 8" of snow and down the drain for me. While the possibility was there of a se shift, it's unusual to see such a big shift on one suite to the north and then another shift se by a fairly large margin when your this close. However when you look at the progressive and fast flow coming off the ridge in the Pacific, models can really struggle with timing and intensity of the vortmax. It still develops quick so areas like ern and se ma should at least watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I would give it until tomorrow aftn to be honest as far as SNE goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Does the GFS have a habit of getting all screwy at 3 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I would give it until tomorrow aftn to be honest as far as SNE goes. Agree. Everything still on the table though I feel a lot less confident now than I did earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I would give it until tomorrow aftn to be honest as far as SNE goes. Yeah you always give it until inside of 72 hours. Such a fine line with the vortmax on a pretty big solution versus almost nothing...with the flow this fast, that is a problem we have to deal with when looking at models. When you have large blocking patterns in place, you get more margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'm fine with a miss instead of 20 miles west getting 8" of snow and down the drain for me. While the possibility was there of a se shift, it's unusual to see such a big shift on one suite to the north and then another shift se by a fairly large margin when your this close. However when you look at the progressive and fast flow coming off the ridge in the Pacific, models can really struggle with timing and intensity of the vortmax. It still develops quick so areas like ern and se ma should at least watch it. Its a bad, A lot of pieces and its just ending up being a strung out piece of crap, Maybe someone can salvage something out of it, The ukie did not look bad and if the Euro holds there is hope for some of you anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well have to be in for work in the morning, hopefully the euro stays put. LOL watch the euro be amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Does the GFS have a habit of getting all screwy at 3 days out? Good one Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Well have to be in for work in the morning, hopefully the euro stays put. LOL watch the euro be amped up. I remember in the Jan 10-11, 2009...a few days out, every model trended to nothing and dead flat. I was doing a radio show with DT that night. We saw the NAM/GFS/GGEM all come in really flat. We assumed that it was turning bleak for any system of consequence. A couple hours later, the Euro came in so amped, that it brought mixing nearly to the pike, lol. It not only held serve from its 12z run, it had come in even more amped. Pretty hilarious. The storm ended up happening of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 0z GGEM shifted much further south. Not a good trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah GGEM is a miss. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Crazy Uncle hitting the sauce again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 GEFS still a bit more amped than op run. Still could be some changes here. These shortwaves with such a fast flow are going to be tough to time out. Their interaction with one another will mean the difference between nothing and something big. 00z Euro will be interesting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Crazy Uncle hitting the sauce again? Yeah I saw that. Very amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 This happened just before the Early Nov event, there were 1-2 model suited around this range where it all went ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah I saw that. Very amped. So two camps. Weak Progressive Camp 1 - GFS - GGEM More Amped Camp 2 - UKMET Any reason why GFS has been trending weaker? Better sampling, initializations okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 So two camps. Weak Progressive Camp 1 - GFS - GGEM More Amped Camp 2 - UKMET Any reason why GFS has been trending weaker? Better sampling, initializations okay? It's probably honing in on that shortwave. It's the key player in all of this. I'd wait for the euro before really getting worked up. 12z suite tomorrow is when there should be some agreement hopefully inside 60hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Models were also horrible at handling the Nov 7th storm. (except for the RPM if i remember correctly) 00z Euro should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Models were also horrible at handling the Nov 7th storm. (except for the RPM if i remember correctly) 00z Euro should be interesting... The RPM was good but that was only the morning of the 7th with 6 hour lead time haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Can't see the individual members, but the GEFS average looks healthier than the OP by a fair amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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