weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think most of us see something from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I think most of us see something from this. I'll be happy with an inch...just want to see a little white blanketing the ground. Snow in November is tough enough as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 84 hr SREFs? Well the 18 Z NAM had a nice banding signal propagating from the MA, NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 At 42 hours, the s/w responsible for the big 18z NAM solution is way weaker. This won't be that monster solution again I wouldn't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'm becoming concerned that our disturbance of importance is the one that comes through Manitoba, Canada on the backside of the trough. The first several disturbances shear out ahead of the main shortwave trough, but then the shear zone shifts northward as the -AO anomaly just northwest of the Maritimes shifts northward. These disturbances pick up GOM moisture before being sheared out, and then as the main shortwave trough moves through, it intensifies the surtace low as it moves northeastward off the New England coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Tough for models as there are 3 s/w's of interest. The s/w initially over us Tuesday morning is the one where we need some separation between itself and incoming s/w #2 approaching IL at the time. S/W #3 is entering northern MN and that also wants to try to slow the departing low and give the NORLUN look the 18z GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Ridge out west really hasn't changed so that seems stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Trends going the wrong way tonight. Nam may well have nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 NAM trying to get the trough going late at 66 hours...but I'm not sure its going to be enough to catch the storm trying to exit right. Probably going to end up with a messy inverted trough with light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I don't see the trend on the NAM right now, out to hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 wiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Awful. Good thing Kevin is in bed with his footed pajamas. OT... but take a look at some of the stuff I dug up on the 11/25/1950 southeaster. Pretty neat stuff http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/11/24/the-greatest-southeaster-november-25-1950/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Congrats fishicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Nvrmind I see the trend on the NAM. I think we just need the second shortwave to slow down, but that won't happen with a sheared flow, or the third disturbance to come through faster and phase earlier with the second shortwave. Arctic jet energy gets involved with this storm. -24C over Lake Superior. Thats Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The Cape gets some snow or mix to snow. A Ray inv middle finger develops too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Phil may get something. He deserves it. Too far east or saki? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Whoosh. How far the enthusiasm has fallen in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 That would prob be an ivnerted trough over eastern areas if we could see another frame or two. But yeah, we need that 2nd shortwave to be stronger and west when looking at future runs. You can see how quickly it tries to explode at the end...so just a bit more room/strength and it would be a good hit. But that is the difference this run...the s/w was weaker and it was further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Whoosh. How far the enthusiasm has fallen in the last 24 hours. I'm enthusiastic. If the rest of the suite comes in like this I still will be. Why? It's 11/24....all ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Too much separation between the northern stream shortwave and the arctic jet shortwave, doesn't allow the surface low to slow down, with the 500mb setup would expect some type of norlun trough developing past 84 hours as shortwave moves south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'm enthusiastic. If the rest of the suite comes in like this I still will be. Why? It's 11/24....all ahead of us. I think we'll see a little something out of this. Maybe I will be wrong..but I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'm enthusiastic. If the rest of the suite comes in like this I still will be. Why? It's 11/24....all ahead of us. Clearly, you folks in Beantown and in the southern areas like Kevin/east are in a much better position for the current system. But, in relaiton to what last night's models were depicting, this is a let-down. As far as it being 11/24, of course there's comfort in that. But I don't think anyone here isn't bummed when somehting doesn't play out. I'll survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Clearly, you folks in Beantown and in the southern areas like Kevin/east are in a much better position for the current system. But, in relaiton to what last night's models were depicting, this is a let-down. As far as it being 11/24, of course there's comfort in that. But I don't think anyone here isn't bummed when somehting doesn't play out. I'll survive. I'm already 30% if my way to all of last winter. I know disappointment and this doesn't compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 A lot of synoptic cirrus on the 0z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Whoosh. How far the enthusiasm has fallen in the last 24 hours. Dry begets dry is the pattern I'll ride until the atmosphere says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 GFS looks pretty repulsive. Looks like this might be the start of a bad 00z suite. This system has had no consistency on the models. They were all trending flatter yesterday at 12z, then all amped up at 00z...kind of held steady at 12z today and now look to be trending flat again at 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 00z GFS... flurries... maybe a period of -SN. Whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 GFS also looking pretty flat and strung out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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