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November 27th - 28th Snow Potential


Ice Warrior commander

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SREFs out in about 15-20 min...hopefully we see a bump north...they were pretty paltry at 15z...even though we are out of their wheelehouse, they still actually perform decently at 72-84 hours for precip unlike a few years ago when they were awful.

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Oftentime on late winter night's coming back from night skiing at Wachusett I will have 1-84 east/westbound to myself with no other car on the road for a few miles at a time. The state police make lots of money from speeding fines on that stretch of highway. The road is at around 950' - 990' in Union if GPS is to be trusted.

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SREFs out in about 15-20 min...hopefully we see a bump north...they were pretty paltry at 15z...even though we are out of their wheelehouse, they still actually perform decently at 72-84 hours for precip unlike a few years ago when they were awful.

Will, where are you getting them?

the NCEP site is a dead link when you click on "SREF"

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SREFs are on the PSU ewall site.

Yeah but you have to wait a bit longer for those to update. Like an extra 10-15 min...but they are definitely the best graphics.

I'm not sure why the NCEP site has stopped offering them or not fixed the broken link there.

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What is the rpm link that has been discussed?

Oh it's actually a WSI internal hi-res model. Ryan can see it because he's a media client...that's the model Harvey talks about sometimes to show clouds increasing or decreasing...as well as snow amounts....although the snow algorithm is a little whacky at times. It still has it's moments where I have no idea what its doing, but it has improved. It's fairly good with convection.

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Oh it's actually a WSI internal hi-res model. Ryan can see it because he's a media client...that's the model Harvey talks about sometimes to show clouds increasing or decreasing...as well as snow amounts....although the snow algorithm is a little whacky at times. It still has it's moments where I have no idea what its doing, but it has improved. It's fairly good with convection.

It nailed the early November event. But yeah, sometimes it's out to lunch.

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mean is paltry

Yeah that's likely due to the spread. The SREFs have everything perturbed. This means initial conditions, the physics..it's all perturbed to try and give you a range of possibilities. Well, that's what we have..lol. Not much help here at this time, other than to say we don't have a clear picture.

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