weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If my winds are E or even NE like at an 050 direction....forget it. Those have to back. Time to stop running scared. Stand tall and stick your face out into the cat paws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What about the aspect of the trough going negatively tilted as the vort max reaches the Mid Atlantic coastline? Couldn't that slow down the track and speed of the low and also cool the column more? It's also going to cause warmer air aloft to move in if that happens. The problem is that the antecedent airmass is not cold enough for coastal areas like Cape Cod and even up my way in BOS. The only way I'll see snow is if winds back more nrly. You really need temps close -8-10C and strong vertical motion to get snow I think down that way. Towards the end as it pulls away and winds back more nrly, that may happen if the storm deepens enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Time to stop running scared. Stand tall and stick your face out into the cat paws. LOL, unfortunately that's how it will play out until winds back. I could see you getting snow and me waiting patiently again.....UNLESS this rapidly intensifies. Wind direction is everything this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It's also going to cause warmer air aloft to move in if that happens. The problem is that the antecedent airmass is not cold enough for coastal areas like Cape Cod and even up my way in BOS. The only way I'll see snow is if winds back more nrly. You really need temps close -8-10C and strong vertical motion to get snow I think down that way. Towards the end as it pulls away and winds back more nrly, that may happen if the storm deepens enough. Yeah it has to run into arctic air...that's how you get 11/89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EC ens have total QPF of 0.25" from RUT-BML-CAR so don't throw in the towel yet if you're in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah it has to run into arctic air...that's how you get 11/89. Yep, textbook case. And those temps were for 850mb, I forgot to mention that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EC ens have total QPF of 0.25" from RUT-BML-CAR so don't throw in the towel yet if you're in NNE. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EC ens have total QPF of 0.25" from RUT-BML-CAR so don't throw in the towel yet if you're in NNE. That's the hook north playing into that. Good for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yep, textbook case. And those temps were for 850mb, I forgot to mention that. Yeah I know that's what you meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EC ens have total QPF of 0.25" from RUT-BML-CAR so don't throw in the towel yet if you're in NNE. Yeah the mean 500 hpa/SLP looked good to me for big snow. Looked like many members were stronger and more tucked in than op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah I know that's what you meant Oh I meant for anybody reading...lol. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Sorry but my experience at Plymouth taught me that it is not the place for snow Guaranteed snow hole in 75% of the storms New England gets. Solution: pray for the big ones when you're home for break, and then do a ton of hiking in the mountains when you get back. Even last winter when it was in the 70's in March and "snow" was a myth in the lower 48, I found spots a half hour north of Plymouth where I was post-holing through 3 feet of snow. It's a bit of a shadow there in coastals, but they rake it up in SWFEs. Plym had some back luck with the death bands the past couple of years too while my area scored. It's just one of those deals.I was up there for 07/08 an 08/09 and all it did was snow. I think you ended up with a bad sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Or you have to have good ageostrophic northerly flow...look at 11/11/87...BOS had like 850 temps of -1 or -2C but the high was in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Or you have to have good ageostrophic northerly flow...look at 11/11/87...BOS had like 850 temps of -1 or -2C but the high was in Ontario. My fetish. Yeah BOS is ok if winds can stay northerly. That would be my ideal spot at any point through winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I'll live, it just funny possibly seeing my hometown possibly get two respectable snowstorms while the extent of what I've seen at Plymouth is flurries. I still remember you posting a photo of your front lawn with like 3 feet of snow on it in January 2011, and we were talking about how most of SNE had more snow on the ground than even the upper elevations of Mount Mansfield. But then it turned around and we started getting hit hard later in the season, especially with the 24-30 inch storm on March 6-7, 2011 when SNE was all rain. I was ready to slit my wrists from Boxing Day through January 2011 as SNE got HECS after HECS... but then when it was all said and done we ended up with 150" in town with a 40+ inch snowpack at 700ft by mid March, lol. You just gotta know that climo will work out eventually. SNE was due for a decent November...or at least some snow events. November hasn't been a winter month down there in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EC ens have total QPF of 0.25" from RUT-BML-CAR so don't throw in the towel yet if you're in NNE. Amidst all my MET work I reluctantly did not do over break, you have brightened my day, Brian. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 So we need the bombing out of the low, but I think that is clear possibility as the vortex developing over the Maritimes moves northwestward with time, it allows the vorticity energy and longwave trough to intensify the surface low rapidly and makes that northward turn, when that turn occurs could determine how much snow is possible as the winds back northerly. I understand Cape Cod, mA its very hard to get snow this time of year, but with this system forecasted by the models to intensify as it reaches our benchmark could result in northerly winds to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I still remember you posting a photo of your front lawn with like 3 feet of snow on it in January 2011, and we were talking about how most of SNE had more snow on the ground than even the upper elevations of Mount Mansfield. But then it turned around and we started getting hit hard later in the season, especially with the 24-30 inch storm on March 6-7, 2011 when SNE was all rain. I was ready to slit my wrists from Boxing Day through January 2011 as SNE got HECS after HECS... but then when it was all said and done we ended up with 150" in town with a 40+ inch snowpack at 700ft by mid March, lol. You just gotta know that climo will work out eventually. SNE was due for a decent November...or at least some snow events. November hasn't been a winter month down there in years. Yeah our last good November was 2005...although even that wasn't a great wintry month, it was warm for most of the month before it flipped in the final week with that one snow event. The last true wintry November was 2002. We had several before that like 1997, 1996, 1995, 1989, 1986, 1985. We were definitely due for some snow threats/events and colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This is how winters should be and used to be. It would start early in Nov and not stop until late March, maybe that can happen this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This is how winters should be and used to be. It would start early in Nov and not stop until late March, maybe that can happen this winter How many times did that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This is how winters should be and used to be. It would start early in Nov and not stop until late March, maybe that can happen this winter Some of those previous winters that had cold/snowy Novembers....winter ended in January, lol. Its difficult to go wire to wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EC ens have total QPF of 0.25" from RUT-BML-CAR so don't throw in the towel yet if you're in NNE. Almost 4 days out ... I'm throwing nothing in. lol. Those in jackpot now won't be at verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 My fetish. Yeah BOS is ok if winds can stay northerly. That would be my ideal spot at any point through winter. Really hope you do well in this one dude... no one "deserves" a good snow event like you. Always being a good sport and discussing snow elsewhere... I definitely wouldn't/don't have your patience for what you've seen over the last year, lol. The NAM has to be out to lunch though as the surface 32F line at 84 hours is from Litchfield County to HubbDave, with rain as the p-type in the I-84 corridor, lol. No way that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah our last good November was 2005...although even that wasn't a great wintry month, it was warm for most of the month before it flipped in the final week with that one snow event. The last true wintry November was 2002. We had several before that like 1997, 1996, 1995, 1989, 1986, 1985. We were definitely due for some snow threats/events and colder temps. Will, I think it's 2004 you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I still remember you posting a photo of your front lawn with like 3 feet of snow on it in January 2011, and we were talking about how most of SNE had more snow on the ground than even the upper elevations of Mount Mansfield. But then it turned around and we started getting hit hard later in the season, especially with the 24-30 inch storm on March 6-7, 2011 when SNE was all rain. I was ready to slit my wrists from Boxing Day through January 2011 as SNE got HECS after HECS... but then when it was all said and done we ended up with 150" in town with a 40+ inch snowpack at 700ft by mid March, lol. You just gotta know that climo will work out eventually. SNE was due for a decent November...or at least some snow events. November hasn't been a winter month down there in years. LOL 3/7/11 was such a snowstorm...mix line set up from KLEB up to about Littleton, NH. LSC picked up 25" despite mixing with IP for a time. Plymouth got like 7" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This is how winters should be and used to be. It would start early in Nov and not stop until late March, maybe that can happen this winter I think those winters were before you were born. I remember them from boyhood but even they had huge torches and pattern relaxations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z GFS looks really flat and strung out. Ugly solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Really hope you do well in this one dude... no one "deserves" a good snow event like you. Always being a good sport and discussing snow elsewhere... I definitely wouldn't/don't have your patience for what you've seen over the last year, lol. The NAM has to be out to lunch though as the surface 32F line at 84 hours is from Litchfield County to HubbDave, with rain as the p-type in the I-84 corridor, lol. No way that happens. Thanks, but I had no business getting what I received in 2010/2011..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z GFS has a really weak s/w that hardly digs. Not much for anyone, but some measurable in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Whoa... hideous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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