dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Or you could blame sam for leaving.. That to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah agreed. 6 hours of wrist slitting followed by a quick burst. Lol...yeah you can see it happen down near NYC earlier. Starts off as a torch the first 6 hours or so but eventually cools down as the winds keep turning more northerly. That vortmax on this run is really potent....seeing another couple panels would be interesting. I would think a pretty solid commahead develops on that going forward. But oh well....first things first....lets get the NAM inside 48 hours, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Can't wait for my cold rain to wet snow in S-C NJ. I need better fronto forcing than this but the NAM is close down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That seems to happen a lot with some of you guys that live in SNE No kidding. Just some serious bad luck. Oh well. Lots of winter ahead of us. And honestly, with amount of work I have between now and Dec 20, I don't need to be up at 1:30am analyzing the Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I can't help but think how I'll be screwed somehow. That line of thinking has worked well since last year..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lol...yeah you can see it happen down near NYC earlier. Starts off as a torch the first 6 hours or so but eventually cools down as the winds keep turning more northerly. That vortmax on this run is really potent....seeing another couple panels would be interesting. I would think a pretty solid commahead develops on that going forward. But oh well....first things first....lets get the NAM inside 48 hours, lol. Yeah stronger the better for the coast. Need a nice ageostrophic tug. I really like how the GFS soundings look just inland back this way (and I assume up toward ORH too). A really solid burst of omega in the SGZ for quite some time. A very impressive signal... just need it to hold... these things are notoriously fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Holy sh*t ORH gusted to 44kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 FWIW 15z SREF is sheared out like a mofo. Not much into SNE at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Also, that s/w hasn't even caught up to the system at 84hrs...its still back in VA. Pretty potent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If this happens and I get nothing in Plymouth...lol. Sorry but my experience at Plymouth taught me that it is not the place for snow Guaranteed snow hole in 75% of the storms New England gets. Solution: pray for the big ones when you're home for break, and then do a ton of hiking in the mountains when you get back. Even last winter when it was in the 70's in March and "snow" was a myth in the lower 48, I found spots a half hour north of Plymouth where I was post-holing through 3 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 UKMet is quite amped too. I'm thinking this could be a legit snowstorm for the I-84 corridor especially. A few issues to overcome coastal areas but signs for decent accumulation even in New Haven, Providence, and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Sorry but my experience at Plymouth taught me that it is not the place for snow Guaranteed snow hole in 75% of the storms New England gets. Solution: pray for the big ones when you're home for break, and then do a ton of hiking in the mountains when you get back. Even last winter when it was in the 70's in March and "snow" was a myth in the lower 48, I found spots a half hour north of Plymouth where I was post-holing through 3 feet of snow. Higher elevations in NNE are so nice for snow, and you don't even have to go far most of the time. I can find places at 2,200ft + 20 minutes from my school. If I had to guess, they probably average 50-80" more than the valley floors do each winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Sorry but my experience at Plymouth taught me that it is not the place for snow Guaranteed snow hole in 75% of the storms New England gets. Solution: pray for the big ones when you're home for break, and then do a ton of hiking in the mountains when you get back. Even last winter when it was in the 70's in March and "snow" was a myth in the lower 48, I found spots a half hour north of Plymouth where I was post-holing through 3 feet of snow. I think they can do well in SWFE? E-SE flow coming up the valley there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Plymouth, MA and Essex, MA jackpot regions, IMO. Storm intensifies as it passes through the BM. TN Valley to BM track IMO, 3-6" with local amounts up to 8" for the aforementioned areas, could be more if ocean enhancement begins in earnest. If all snow Barnstable, MA could be looking at warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Plymouth, MA and Essex, MA jackpot regions, IMO. Storm intensifies as it passes through the BM. TN Valley to BM track IMO, 3-6" with local amounts up to 8" for the aforementioned areas, could be more if ocean enhancement begins in earnest. If all snow Barnstable, MA could be looking at warning criteria. Not to be a Debbie D, but I have trouble seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Sorry but my experience at Plymouth taught me that it is not the place for snow Guaranteed snow hole in 75% of the storms New England gets. Solution: pray for the big ones when you're home for break, and then do a ton of hiking in the mountains when you get back. Even last winter when it was in the 70's in March and "snow" was a myth in the lower 48, I found spots a half hour north of Plymouth where I was post-holing through 3 feet of snow. Yeah orographic conditions shadow that area. Surrounding areas get feet while Plymouth gets 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Plymouth, MA and Essex, MA jackpot regions, IMO. Storm intensifies as it passes through the BM. TN Valley to BM track IMO, 3-6" with local amounts up to 8" for the aforementioned areas, could be more if ocean enhancement begins in earnest. If all snow Barnstable, MA could be looking at warning criteria. Temperatures in the mid 40s may be a bit problematic at least for the first half of the storm for HYA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Is the NAM following in the footsteps of the GFS? It looks way too warm in the lower levels. What's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I can't help but think how I'll be screwed somehow. That line of thinking has worked well since last year..lol. You are due for a decent one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Is the NAM following in the footsteps of the GFS? It looks way too warm in the lower levels. What's up with that? It looks about what I would expect back this way? You looking at BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Is Dc too warm for any frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I personally think that HYA will get 3", but the possibility exists for a sharp changeover to all snow as the storm runs to the southeast of the region and intensifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Is Dc too warm for any frozen? Burbs there look pretty good on the NAM....downtown looks problematic until the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It looks about what I would expect back this way? You looking at BOS? It just looks warm in the interior from the surface to 950 starting Tuesday. Euro is colder. Maybe it's right, but it also did this on 11/7 IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Temperatures in the mid 40s may be a bit problematic at least for the first half of the storm for HYA lol. It actually starts colder and then warms then cools late game on the euro. Would almost certainly be 75% liquid as presently modeled. There'd be flakes flying at some point but the antecedent airmass is too mild relative to climo going in. This set- up would jackpot this area in another few/several weeks but not in Nov. Probably a similar concern right up to just south of scooter right along the shore...at least as currently set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It actually starts colder and then warms then cools late game on the euro. Would almost certainly be 75% liquid as presently modeled. There'd be flakes flying at some point but the antecedent airmass is too mild relative to climo going in. This set- up would jackpot this area in another few/several weeks but not in Nov. Probably a similar concern right up to just south of scooter right along the shore...at least as currently set up If my winds are E or even NE like at an 050 direction....forget it. Those have to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Is Dc too warm for any frozen? SV algorithm has nothing for DC, NW burbs and into western MD look to do pretty well, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Wonder if Ryan will really hit this hard on air tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What about the aspect of the trough going negatively tilted as the vort max reaches the Mid Atlantic coastline? Couldn't that slow down the track and speed of the low and also cool the column more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What about the aspect of the trough going negatively tilted as the vort max reaches the Mid Atlantic coastline? Couldn't that slow down the track and speed of the low and also cool the column more? Yeah if it bombs to the east then that would allow the eastern coast line to flip to snow...but its uncertain we can get a storm bombing like that right now. The high pressure ahead of the systmem is not in an ideal spot for coast line snow...being up in Nova Scotia. So you have to hope for a storm bombing to really turn the winds almost due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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