Ice Warrior commander Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 00Z 11/24/12 EC OP run bumps north. UKIE and GFS more Amped as well. Discuss: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 00z GFS looks like the model of choice right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Good morning...I need to say no more than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 And the 6z GFS has got to be giving ORH a tickle, while his same-climo friend to the south is a little too close to mixing for comfort. But man the GFS is cranking out a pretty major snowstorm for someone in New England... targeting CNE for the most part, but everyone is in the game with a tick north or a tick south. 00z GFS Precipitation amounts... 06z GFS precipitation amounts... The best part is these lows are ending up in a climo favored spot for NW flow enhancement, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EC ens mean QPF has the 0.10" line running just north of VT/NH toward HUL. 0.25" runs BVY-PVD-MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Just saw the 6z GFS...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Good morning...I need to say no more than this Good call with the model depictions last night, Kevin. The 00 and 06 GFS are certainly my friends. EC might have me in the barn rafters again. Regardless, I can use the 12z model runs as an excuse for a break from my logging. Snowblower tune-up scheduled for Monday. Timely or dooming myself? We'll find out soon enough. 35/21. Managed a top gust of 22mph so far. Not too shabby for my siting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 wow at the 6z gfs back to mostly rain here, the trend is nw, how far will it go?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Except Euro ens which now drop 1-2 inches of fluff. Expect op to come north and wet tonite Sounds like Euro ens are coming back to reality. We should see that wetter trend cotinue the next couple runs and GFS come south. A compromise like we discussed earlier Yes and yes.. All i ask is for your respect and gratitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Take me down To the Paradise City Where the grass is white And Joe is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 06z is a NNE hit big time. The EC ensembles are over the BM and still fairy weak. 06z GEFS look like SE of ACK, maybe near BM give or take. I'll give Kevin props, he stuck to his guns. I thought 00z might tick NW, but nothing like this..lol. Now, we see what today brings and if it comes more NW. The euro and ensembles are still flat, but there may be more room NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 06z is a NNE hit big time. The EC ensembles are over the BM and still fairy weak. 06z GEFS look like SE of ACK, maybe near BM give or take. I'll give Kevin props, he stuck to his guns. I thought 00z might tick NW, but nothing like this..lol. Now, we see what today brings and if it comes more NW. The euro and ensembles are still flat, but there may be more room NW. I just recall several times where the Euro put a s/w thru the meatgrinder as Will put it ..and it ended up overdoing the confluence..this to me anyway..looked like one of those times. When the 12z Ens came north and gave us some snow..that was the sign we needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I just recall several times where the Euro put a s/w thru the meatgrinder as Will put it ..and it ended up overdoing the confluence..this to me anyway..looked like one of those times. When the 12z Ens came north and gave us some snow..that was the sign we needed Seeing the spread with the Canadian...yes I know it's the Canadian and the GFS still have something made me wonder, but nothing like this. Now we should probably put the breaks on the NW trend. I wouldn't be shocked if it still had room to go. But, hey you stuck to your snow guns so nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Hunchback..I did a 10 miler this morning and once it got light out the lat 3-4 miles I saw many many pumpkins that were ripped to shreds on peoples lawns and front porches..just like you had the other day. It struck me that it's probably a sign of extended snowcover coming up..like Tuesday until Feb 28..animals know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I just recall several times where the Euro put a s/w thru the meatgrinder as Will put it ..and it ended up overdoing the confluence..this to me anyway..looked like one of those times. When the 12z Ens came north and gave us some snow..that was the sign we needed Well I feel like we see this sometimes...the models initially underestimate the confluence in the MR/LR so we get a bump SE. Then the s/w's get sampled better and we see the ticks NW with more aplification. You are always going to go with the snowier solution so if it pans out, congrats I guess. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Seeing the spread with the Canadian...yes I know it's the Canadian and the GFS still have something made me wonder, but nothing like this. Now we should probably put the breaks on the NW trend. I wouldn't be shocked if it still had room to go. But, hey you stuck to your snow guns so nice job. Thanks..Do you think Brian, Ryan, Phil, Cold Front and others who gave me all kinds of crap yesterday will offer nice words like that? Lol..Seriously though I appreciate it How far NW do you think it can come? Would we be in danger of a changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This AFD from BOX seems a little dismissive of the GFS--unless I'm misreading the bolded portion with respect to the 'impact'. Based on forecast, I must be. But, for a technical discussion it fails to mention the major storm present in at least the 00 and 06z GFS runs. MODELS ARE NOW CLOSER TO ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOW TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ESSENTIALLY...WITH THE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTED IN ALL MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS NOW SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PUSHING THAT LOW FURTHER E THAN ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND GEFS/ GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY.THEREFORE...THERE IS A BIT MORE SUPPORT FOR A COASTAL STORM RATHER THAN ONE THAT PUSHES INLAND. THIS ALSO FAVORS A COOLER SOLN AS WELL. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIFFERENCES THOUGH AS THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN BRINGS THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK WHILE ECMWF/ECENS ARE MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL BEGIN TO TREND GRIDS TOWARD THIS COASTAL/COOL SOLN BUT WITH AN EYE TOWARD UNCERTAINTY IN FINAL IMPACTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thanks..Do you think Brian, Ryan, Phil, Cold Front and others who gave me all kinds of crap yesterday will offer nice words like that? Lol..Seriously though I appreciate it How far NW do you think it can come? Would we be in danger of a changeover? Everyone trolls your weenie posts man. For days we were all saying it still had a chance...although I'll admit I was ready to give up for here if the EC and the ens held serve again this morning with a GFS trend SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I just recall several times where the Euro put a s/w thru the meatgrinder as Will put it ..and it ended up overdoing the confluence..this to me anyway..looked like one of those times. When the 12z Ens came north and gave us some snow..that was the sign we needed So, are you now abandoning KURO for KFS? You're becoming like Prince. We'll just give you a symbol next (a snowflake for winter that becomes a dry-sun on March 1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thanks..Do you think Brian, Ryan, Phil, Cold Front and others who gave me all kinds of crap yesterday will offer nice words like that? Lol..Seriously though I appreciate it How far NW do you think it can come? Would we be in danger of a changeover? Well I will say that sometimes your calls may not be scientific...lol. Don't forget the pre Thanksgiving storm and wire to wire winter that may be interrupted with frisbees in about 10 days. However, I'm not going to pee in your cheerios even if I don't agree with your reasoning sometimes. Given the models and their behavior lately, I have low confidence on how far NW. There is some weak ridging in Newfoundland when this low gets going, so that may mean further NW adjustments, but then you have the EC which is still southeast. I know the EC has been too flat, but given the time range..you have to think about that solution too. The s/w will be heading into the sampling network today so maybe that comes in stronger as well. There is a limit though....I don't see a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Everyone trolls your weenie posts man. For days we were all saying it still had a chance...although I'll admit I was ready to give up for here if the EC and the ens held serve again this morning with a GFS trend SE. That was my idea as well. If they were all flat, forget it...but I was going to wait especially since this area is further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thanks..Do you think Brian, Ryan, Phil, Cold Front and others who gave me all kinds of crap yesterday will offer nice words like that? Lol..Seriously though I appreciate it How far NW do you think it can come? Would we be in danger of a changeover? You want a congrats for sticking with the most snowy scenario for your backyard? And then having a model run 4+ days out showing the solution you want? But yes, congrats on guessing what a forecast model will show for an event 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 So lets all remember that the EC is not God in the 4-5 day window? This is why we have guidance, to help guide and lead us to solutions. It's the better model, but no all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 So lets all remember that the EC is not God in the 4-5 day window? This is why we have guidance, to help guide and lead us to solutions. It's the better model, but no all the time. There there's the GGEM which is the opposite of God.... showing massive bombing cutters for days and is now one of the flatest solutions with maybe 1-3" south coast, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 keep it at 40/70.. i don't want sleet here..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 There there's the GGEM which is the opposite of God.... showing massive bombing cutters for days and is now one of the flatest solutions with maybe 1-3" south coast, lol. Something tells me NNE may be good in this, but don't hold me to it. I think someone like Brian is probably in a good spot...and probably down to Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Great call by the kfs...looks like rain down here oh well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Hunchback..I did a 10 miler this morning and once it got light out the lat 3-4 miles I saw many many pumpkins that were ripped to shreds on peoples lawns and front porches..just like you had the other day. It struck me that it's probably a sign of extended snowcover coming up..like Tuesday until Feb 28..animals know I must bow down toward your steadfastness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 So lets all remember that the EC is not God in the 4-5 day window? This is why we have guidance, to help guide and lead us to solutions. It's the better model, but no all the time. If only all model guidance was as consistent as the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 You want a congrats for sticking with the most snowy scenario for your backyard? And then having a model run 4+ days out showing the solution you want? But yes, congrats on guessing what a forecast model will show for an event 4 days away. You've quietly become kind of a jerk on the boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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