On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter

[OSUmetstud]

With the AO in the tank, it's only a matter of time before thinks break well again even if the bad Pacific dictates the pattern for the next 7 to 14 days.

[CoastalWx]

This sucker could be legitimate. Look what it does to the potential vorticity fields and how the -u anomalies propagate upwards. With no clear dominate player on a global / large scale, the timing of a disturbance will be tricky to figure out.

How do you like 53-54 as an analog? It says we punt December for an excellent January.

I like how those winds progged go negative on the zonal wind chart. The vortex gets a massive Mike Tyson style side punch right through 30mb and throws it on the Atlantic side fof the globe which was cool to see.

I'd have to look to see what happened, I don't have the charts in front of me and in my head like Will does..lol.

I feel like this year the forecasts or thoughts that I had just haven't worked out the way I thought, anyways. November was chilly, the first week of December will be warmer and the NAO just didn't work out like I hoped...but I agree the latter was more questionable. So, I'm hoping we improve into the second week. It might not be full force winter, but an improvement or step down. I certainly could be wrong and it may take a little longer even, that option is still there.

[CoastalWx]

I like how those winds progged go negative on the zonal wind chart. The vortex gets a massive Mike Tyson style side punch right through 30mb and throws it on the Atlantic side fof the globe which was cool to see.

I'd have to look to see what happened, I don't have the charts in front of me and in my head like Will does..lol.

I feel like this year the forecasts or thoughts that I had just haven't worked out the way I thought, anyways. November was chilly, the first week of December will be warmer and the NAO just didn't work out like I hoped...but I agree the latter was more questionable. So, I'm hoping we improve into the second week. It might not be full force winter, but an improvement or step down. I certainly could be wrong and it may take a little longer even, that option is still there.

HM Jan 54 looked bad?

Edit, snowfall was good looking at the totals...probably a good gradient pattern.

[HM]

I like how those winds progged go negative on the zonal wind chart. The vortex gets a massive Mike Tyson style side punch right through 30mb and throws it on the Atlantic side fof the globe which was cool to see.

I'd have to look to see what happened, I don't have the charts in front of me and in my head like Will does..lol.

I feel like this year the forecasts or thoughts that I had just haven't worked out the way I thought, anyways. November was chilly, the first week of December will be warmer and the NAO just didn't work out like I hoped...but I agree the latter was more questionable. So, I'm hoping we improve into the second week. It might not be full force winter, but an improvement or step down. I certainly could be wrong and it may take a little longer even, that option is still there.

I wouldn't be so hard on yourself with November. I thought we did pretty good with general ideas for late October-early November and again later in November. So far, long range forecasts have been pretty good all around IMO.

It is interesting how tormented we were with December over the last few months, initially thinking it would be a blowtorch then learning about Siberia / etc. made us cool the picture down. As evidence built for a -AO late Nov/early Dec, suddenly we grew cooler in our thoughts for the Northeast but never liked the Mid Atlantic. Now as we get closer, you can see the opposing forces on the wx map and I think it is pretty cool how we sort of picked up on that even if we weren't conscious about it.

[HM]

HM Jan 54 looked bad?

Edit, snowfall was good looking at the totals...probably a good gradient pattern.

1953 has been an ongoing analog for the last 1.5 years and occasionally has had its times when it is the strongest year. Anyway, it was part of the reason I said what I said about this November and predicted the potential for an early season snow event a month in advance. While there were opportunities, December failed miserably but January came through with a widespread coastal storm /snowfall Jan 10th.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't be so hard on yourself with November. I thought we did pretty good with general ideas for late October-early November and again later in November. So far, long range forecasts have been pretty good all around IMO.

It is interesting how tormented we were with December over the last few months, initially thinking it would be a blowtorch then learning about Siberia / etc. made us cool the picture down. As evidence built for a -AO late Nov/early Dec, suddenly we grew cooler in our thoughts for the Northeast but never liked the Mid Atlantic. Now as we get closer, you can see the opposing forces on the wx map and I think it is pretty cool how we sort of picked up on that even if we weren't conscious about it.

November I thought would be mild, but in talking to Adam back near Halloween...I did mention that New England may not be that torchy thanks to the high in Quebec that was on the ensembles two weeks out. I thought maybe +1 or so, but it definitely was cooler than I thought.

There was some good disco about your second paragraph, all those were discussed in various ways and it is working out to an extent. It is nice to see when ideas start to become reality. It's rarely going to work out 100% as planned in long range forecasting, but just having it come to fruition in a way you thought is nice to see.

[CoastalWx]

1953 has been an ongoing analog for the last 1.5 years and occasionally has had its times when it is the strongest year. Anyway, it was part of the reason I said what I said about this November and predicted the potential for an early season snow event a month in advance. While there were opportunities, December failed miserably but January came through with a widespread coastal storm /snowfall Jan 10th.

I'd be disappointed if we punt December. That would be a pretty bad long range blow to the models.

I noticed the models don't see as bullish with trying to bring the convection towards the IO. Roundy doesn't look bullish for this either. Perhaps we start later in December, but maybe Christmas time isn't as much as a break in the pattern as first thought. It's not helping that convection may not be as robust in our favorable phases, but in a way..it may help by not forcing an unfavorable pattern down the road?

[HM]

I'd be disappointed if we punt December. That would be a pretty bad long range blow to the models.

I noticed the models don't see as bullish with trying to bring the convection towards the IO. Roundy doesn't look bullish for this either. Perhaps we start later in December, but maybe Christmas time isn't as much as a break in the pattern as first thought. It's not helping that convection may not be as robust in our favorable phases, but in a way..it may help by not forcing an unfavorable pattern down the road?

I don't like late December and neither has Roundy's data indicating a very warm pattern. You can easily see how we punt December if we don't get the NAO help in the beginning, get a brief retrogression and then a warm-up returns. On a strictly Tropical Wave sense and AAM, they are going to want to make the pattern warmer / +AO tendency. Also, you'll see a general upswing in solar activity in December which will also add to the +AO tendency. Finally, the stratosphere will be a top-down wave 1 response which will initially mean the cold vortex / westerlies dominate the troposphere for a time in between disturbed states which could coincide with late December.

All of that may end up brief though. Last week, I thought the warm period would be brief starting near xmas. So we'll see. The other option is that the AO continues to get disturbed and combined with the tropical data would mean a CLASSIC La Niña gradient pattern and that is a snowy one from the Midwest to New England. This would confine the warmup to the Southeast US. If I had to pick between the two options, I'm thinking the second one and New England will be saved.

[CoastalWx]

I don't like late December and neither has Roundy's data indicating a very warm pattern. You can easily see how we punt December if we don't get the NAO help in the beginning, get a brief retrogression and then a warm-up returns. On a strictly Tropical Wave sense and AAM, they are going to want to make the pattern warmer / +AO tendency. Also, you'll see a general upswing in solar activity in December which will also add to the +AO tendency. Finally, the stratosphere will be a top-down wave 1 response which will initially mean the cold vortex / westerlies dominate the troposphere for a time in between disturbed states which could coincide with late December.

All of that may end up brief though. Last week, I thought the warm period would be brief starting near xmas. So we'll see. The other option is that the AO continues to get disturbed and combined with the tropical data would mean a CLASSIC La Niña gradient pattern and that is a snowy one from the Midwest to New England. This would confine the warmup to the Southeast US. If I had to pick between the two options, I'm thinking the second one and New England will be saved.

That's a good point too...those + tendencies will be migrating towards the mid latitudes.

I see both pros and cons..most of which you stated. I'm gonna go with this area being saved as well, because I think it will try to change heading past week 2...but I don't have a ton of confidence. I don't have anything riding on it so I'm pretty interesting to see how it plays out.

The Pacific is progged to change in a way that has delivered in the past here in New England so I think it would have to be a hell of a fail to change that. It doesn't mean it has to be a blockbuster month, but I'd take my chances with how the H5 pattern is progged. I'm hoping for that.

[toronto blizzard]

I don't like late December and neither has Roundy's data indicating a very warm pattern. You can easily see how we punt December if we don't get the NAO help in the beginning, get a brief retrogression and then a warm-up returns. On a strictly Tropical Wave sense and AAM, they are going to want to make the pattern warmer / +AO tendency. Also, you'll see a general upswing in solar activity in December which will also add to the +AO tendency. Finally, the stratosphere will be a top-down wave 1 response which will initially mean the cold vortex / westerlies dominate the troposphere for a time in between disturbed states which could coincide with late December.

All of that may end up brief though. Last week, I thought the warm period would be brief starting near xmas. So we'll see. The other option is that the AO continues to get disturbed and combined with the tropical data would mean a CLASSIC La Niña gradient pattern and that is a snowy one from the Midwest to New England. This would confine the warmup to the Southeast US. If I had to pick between the two options, I'm thinking the second one and New England will be saved.

Would this be for December or January?

[HM]

That's a good point too...those + tendencies will be migrating towards the mid latitudes.

I see both pros and cons..most of which you stated. I'm gonna go with this area being saved as well, because I think it will try to change heading past week 2...but I don't have a ton of confidence. I don't have anything riding on it so I'm pretty interesting to see how it plays out.

The Pacific is progged to change in a way that has delivered in the past here in New England so I think it would have to be a hell of a fail to change that. It doesn't mean it has to be a blockbuster month, but I'd take my chances with how the H5 pattern is progged. I'm hoping for that.

That's been our basic theme / idea from the start. The players on the field were close for a blockbuster but this week we can clearly see that isn't happening and I'm glad we didn't go overboard. There is still hope for New England in a pattern like this one with a potential maybe 12/6-10 and maybe again toward the 20th as Chris suggested last week.

Would this be for December or January?

We are talking December.

[HM]

The 12z GFS kind of has the idea of a threat (12/6-10) in between a couple of warm ups due to a +PNA spike / retrogression. Out in the very reliable times beyond a week (ha), it certainly grows more convoluted ultimately leading to the 12/20 potential. The ECMWF will be interesting, as usual.

Edit: And I know no one cares right now because of this garbage system but I'm all rain so I'll just talk to myself.

[Allsnow]

Congrats snowman21 on your snow.

[CoastalWx]

The 12z GFS kind of has the idea of a threat (12/6-10) in between a couple of warm ups due to a +PNA spike / retrogression. Out in the very reliable times beyond a week (ha), it certainly grows more convoluted ultimately leading to the 12/20 potential. The ECMWF will be interesting, as usual.

Edit: And I know no one cares right now because of this garbage system but I'm all rain so I'll just talk to myself.

Join the club.

Yeah something may pop then I suppose. Up here, you can get systems in an otherwise crummy pattern...but I;m still thinking post 10th for anything sustainable...or at least close to it.

Granted my location is different than interior areas at 1000ft.

[toronto blizzard]

The 12z GFS kind of has the idea of a threat (12/6-10) in between a couple of warm ups due to a +PNA spike / retrogression. Out in the very reliable times beyond a week (ha), it certainly grows more convoluted ultimately leading to the 12/20 potential. The ECMWF will be interesting, as usual.

Edit: And I know no one cares right now because of this garbage system but I'm all rain so I'll just talk to myself.

I'm thinking maybe a threat around 12/12-13 but hey what do I know lol

[dryslot]

The 12z GFS kind of has the idea of a threat (12/6-10) in between a couple of warm ups due to a +PNA spike / retrogression. Out in the very reliable times beyond a week (ha), it certainly grows more convoluted ultimately leading to the 12/20 potential. The ECMWF will be interesting, as usual.

Edit: And I know no one cares right now because of this garbage system but I'm all rain so I'll just talk to myself.

lol, I'm all cirrus

[HM]

Join the club.

Yeah something may pop then I suppose. Up here, you can get systems in an otherwise crummy pattern...but I;m still thinking post 10th for anything sustainable...or at least close to it.

Granted my location is different than interior areas at 1000ft.

The days surrounding the 12/6-10 potential will not be pretty looking but the timing of the wave with the retrogression/PNA spike increases the threat for some type of jumper or followup eastward, cooler track. I suppose you can call it a threader but I had that idiom.

The North Pacific is in full blown retrogression, once the GOA low finishes its "progression" on the GFS. Watch a N PAC loop of 500mb heights...good stuff.

[Jonger]

The days surrounding the 12/6-10 potential will not be pretty looking but the timing of the wave with the retrogression/PNA spike increases the threat for some type of jumper or followup eastward, cooler track. I suppose you can call it a threader but I had that idiom.

The North Pacific is in full blown retrogression, once the GOA low finishes its "progression" on the GFS. Watch a N PAC loop of 500mb heights...good stuff.

Why exactly is the Pacific stuck in this same pattern, isn't this the same **** as last year?

[NaoPos]

Why exactly is the Pacific stuck in this same pattern, isn't this the same **** as last year?

no..last year the PV was sitting and spinning in Alaska all winter. The caused a very fast ,zonal flow of the pac jet into most of the conus. I believe the AO was quite positive most the winter due to this.

this year, there's ridging by the aleutians, and a GOA low is a result. the GOA low relaxes at times, (as is now with a decent +PNA, but its quite transient. However, this year, there's a -3SD AO ongoing.

[Chrisrotary12]

I am certain it has been mentioned before.......but is that a day 9/10 weenie storm on the GFS I see?

I think it is..........must be getting close to winter now that the GFS is showcasing day 10 snow bombs.

[CoastalWx]

no..last year the PV was sitting and spinning in Alaska all winter. The caused a very fast ,zonal flow of the pac jet into most of the conus. I believe the AO was quite positive most the winter due to this.

this year, there's ridging by the aleutians, and a GOA low is a result. the GOA low relaxes at times, (as is now with a decent +PNA, but its quite transient. However, this year, there's a -3SD AO ongoing.

The idea going is that we may see enough retrogression to pop a PNA ridge and bring down colder air into the US. That's what models show. It appears the NAO won't be much help for the time being, so we turn to the PAC. We need that retrogression to happen to help bring the very cold air oozing into the Rockies and Great Plains...east. Right now, there are signs that it will happen...but it's still a little close for my liking. Of course up here we can pop a storm in a crummy pattern...I'm referring to a more prolonged pattern flip. That make takes its time developing...we'll just have to wait and see. Many times we've scarificed the first two weeks of December to something a little more favorable..so it doesn't bother me.

[NJwinter23]

Ensembles were pretty ****ty today

[CoastalWx]

Ensembles were pretty ****ty today

The weeklies looked great, but the ensembles go back and forth. Yesterday the ensembles looked great. To me, it's a sign of models struggling in the longer ridge with the Pacific. This is why I wish the MJO would come out a little stronger because it probaly would pop a +PNA. It's possible we may have to wait a while as we head into December. I really don't have confidence either way. I sort of have the lousy feeling of pushing things back, but at the same time..a wiggle here and there would make things epic. You look at everything and there are pros and cons.

[NJwinter23]

The weeklies looked great, but the ensembles go back and forth. Yesterday the ensembles looked great. To me, it's a sign of models struggling in the longer ridge with the Pacific. This is why I wish the MJO would come out a little stronger because it probaly would pop a +PNA. It's possible we may have to wait a while as we head into December. I really don't have confidence either way. I sort of have the lousy feeling of pushing things back, but at the same time..a wiggle here and there would make things epic. You look at everything and there are pros and cons.

Agreed. Was really hoping that mjo would come alive more too, at least give us a confidence window for a forecast...the once anticipated MJO wave looks to be a fail at this point, even roundy failed on this one..such is life trying to project that thing though.

[CoastalWx]

New thread since this has become large.