weathafella Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 Probably right thru to the 25th I've been preaching this to you guys for a year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I've been preaching this to you guys for a year! lol, That one was for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Week3 Big Aleutian ridge and stout -NAO. Also a ridge out west with heightest anomalies over the SW. We do have a GOA trough, but low anomalies over SNE. week4 Very similar to week4, perhaps more of a Rockies ridge. Still a GOA low trough. The GOA trough is something that may try to make things hostile, but verbatim they had little effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 Week3 Big Aleutian ridge and stout -NAO. Also a ridge out west with heightest anomalies over the SW. We do have a GOA trough, but low anomalies over SNE. week4 Very similar to week4, perhaps more of a Rockies ridge. Still a GOA low trough. The GOA trough is something that may try to make things hostile, but verbatim they had little effect. What are the Euro H85 anomalies weeks 3/4? TYIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 What are the Euro H85 anomalies weeks 3/4? TYIA. Week 3 850 t anomaly near 0 week 3. -1 to the southwest and + 1 to the northeast. This is probably related to the NAO partly and troughing to the sw. Week 4 -1C. Looks like a more overall cold week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 Week 3 850 t anomaly near 0 week 3. -1 to the southwest and + 1 to the northeast. This is probably related to the NAO partly and troughing to the sw. Week 4 -1C. Looks like a more overall cold week. Thank you. It appears seasonal to chilly. Couldn't ask for more as we approach a lower climo period. We'll have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Week 3 temp surface anomaly almost +2. Near normal week 4. Could be an indication of storminess given H5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Weeklies look awesome and so do the end of the Euro ensembles. GOA trough is fine if those other features are there...cross polar flow, a bit of NAO ridging and GOA trough just far enough west that we pop a rockies ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Some interesting facts coming out of Sandy damage assessments, some were really downplaying any comparison to Katrina damage wise immediately after the storm. Data released today according to NBC said more homes damaged in NY State alone than all of Katrina's. Of course a denser population area was affected by Sandy plus Katrina was way beyond Met wise but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 if the euro is right friday and saturday are going to be quite cold. i tend to think it has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 sitting in my environmental law class right now listening to a guy talking about how "Super Storm Sandy was exacerbated by climate change" not this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 the reasons given... Sea level rise apparently happening faster contributed to surge...lol Warmer air temperatures generatae more moisture This is the best one...atlantic ocean jet stream weaker and less effective at diverting storms eastward. wtf? Seasonal ocean water temps along coast were 5*F warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 the reasons given... Sea level rise apparently happening faster. Warmer air temperatures generatae more moisture This is the best one...atlantic ocean jet stream weaker and less effective at diverting storms eastward. wtf? Seasonal ocean water temps along coast were 5*F warmer than normal. In my resource economics class at URI I wrote a paper on the benefits of global warming (the term they used in the 90s) for crop production in developing countries. The professor was not amused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 In my resource economics class at URI I wrote a paper on the benefits of global warming (the term they used in the 90s) for crop production in developing countries. The professor was not amused. I about stood up and challenged him on his points but it's an 8 am class so I just sat with a ****ty grin in the back of the classroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 One thing that isn't helping, is the MJO. It was progged to be a little more intense, thus helping to keep things in motion. With it being weak, patterns will not break as easily or quickly. I still think after the 10th for anything meaningful, and that may be the earliest. Just gonna need some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 One thing that isn't helping, is the MJO. It was progged to be a little more intense, thus helping to keep things in motion. With it being weak, patterns will not break as easily or quickly. I still think after the 10th for anything meaningful, and that may be the earliest. Just gonna need some time. what happened to the great euro weeklies runs from 2 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 what happened to the great euro weeklies runs from 2 weeks ago? Don't forget weeks 3 and 4 aren't exactly high confidence. I certainly don't treat them as gospel, but they seem to have the right idea. if the MJO doesn't cooperate as progged...it will also effects the models. As I look back, week 3 forecast from two weeks ago will go down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 One thing that isn't helping, is the MJO. It was progged to be a little more intense, thus helping to keep things in motion. With it being weak, patterns will not break as easily or quickly. I still think after the 10th for anything meaningful, and that may be the earliest. Just gonna need some time. I'd be very, very careful in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 what happened to the great euro weeklies runs from 2 weeks ago? Don't forget weeks 3 and 4 aren't exactly high confidence. I certainly don't treat them as gospel, but they seem to have the right idea. if the MJO doesn't cooperate as progged...it will also effects the models. As I look back, week 3 forecast from two weeks ago will go down in flames. Downright failure from weeklies, wave 2 response in stratosphere and my interpretation of what that would mean with Tropical Forcing. This is going to be the lamest -3 AO ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'd be very, very careful in this pattern You should be. Kevin was rushing in winter starting T-Day. I do think it will improve, but not all the pieces are lining up for the timing to be sooner rather than later. As of today, I think after the 10th..maybe even mid month. That doesn't mean we can't get something beforehand, but a little winter wx, followed by mild wx doesn't really qualify as a regime change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You should be. Kevin was rushing in winter starting T-Day. I do think it will improve, but not all the pieces are lining up for the timing to be sooner rather than later. As of today, I think after the 10th..maybe even mid month. That doesn't mean we can't get something beforehand, but a little winter wx, followed by mild wx doesn't really qualify as a regime change. I like the fact the change is being delayed....like, would you rather have a snowy end to November and a Grinch xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Downright failure from weeklies, wave 2 response in stratosphere and my interpretation of what that would mean with Tropical Forcing. This is going to be the lamest -3 AO ever. Well you were thinking later in Dec or January as a possible reponse to the AO I thought? I might have misunderstood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I like the fact the change is being delayed....like, would you rather have a snowy end to November and a Grinch xmas? No, I'm fine having it start when climo is better for me. I guess I'm just not sure how everything will work out. I do think we will improve...but I hate seeing things pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Well you were thinking later in Dec or January as a possible reponse to the AO I thought? I might have misunderstood. Yes the main show is then and I'm all about January but there is an ongoing wave 2 that I thought would be enough to allow the NAO to drop (but the way it manifested sucks). I suppose we got our cold, crappy winter event this week but it is all down hill from here on the cold and snowy scale. Let's get that retrograding in motion to save December. December 5-10th still holds promise for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 No, I'm fine having it start when climo is better for me. I guess I'm just not sure how everything will work out. I do think we will improve...but I hate seeing things pushed back. They usually get pushed back.....whatever will be, will be. It will snow....snowing now. I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think it's safe to say that in this part of New England winter will never "set in" before the third or last week of December with only a few exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah we're fine. Dec 5-10 onwards. Nothing to worry about folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yes the main show is then and I'm all about January but there is an ongoing wave 2 that I thought would be enough to allow the NAO to drop (but the way it manifested sucks). I suppose we got our cold, crappy winter event this week but it is all down hill from here on the cold and snowy scale. Let's get that retrograding in motion to save December. December 5-10th still holds promise for something. Pretty good wave 1 response forecasted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah we're fine. Dec 5-10 onwards. Nothing to worry about folks What happened to 2-3' OTG and winter starting T-Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Pretty good wave 1 response forecasted as well. This sucker could be legitimate. Look what it does to the potential vorticity fields and how the -u anomalies propagate upwards. With no clear dominate player on a global / large scale, the timing of a disturbance will be tricky to figure out. How do you like 53-54 as an analog? It says we punt December for an excellent January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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