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On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous.

Sit back and actually read more before you make low quality post

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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Looking at the layout of the operational means for the late middle to extended range - it does look like the -AO is being unfair though. Nice SPVs situated around the hemisphere with positive geopotential anomalies polarward are noted; yet an anomalous positive height area lingers in the TV and OV areas relative to all. Although weakly negative is the PNA, it seems like the runs are taking liberties with it in keeping the wave length so long over the CONUS but eh ...

That is a classic butt-bangin' right there. Hopefully it doesn't verify too well and the distribution is more even in the end, otherwise, whether folks have their heads around it or not, it will will get warm from D5-10; how much so, who knows.

Well the EC/EC ensembles have a neutral NAO/AO by next week, which would allow the Pacific to exert more influence. The GFS acutally goes positive with both of them. Maybe it will be a model bias of weakening a strong -AO too quickly?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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To paraphrase HM from the Philly forum, most of us usually offer all possibilties and try to be objective when we can...but also indicate how we are leaning. We don't say "well I could see this happen...but also that happen.." because we are clueless. Meteorology is highly probablistic, and we offer the possibiltity of solutions because that's what we encounter with conflicting data. It's not a copout. This is what we do in our heads everyday, so we throw around the possibilities, because in essence we are doing the same. I think people tend to assume too much if we are talking favorable or unfavorable. I see that a lot....maybe it's just bad wording by myself or whoever is talking, but I'm sometimes surprised at the way people comprehend some posts. If you have a question or want an opinion..ask and put the person on the spot.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Well the EC/EC ensembles have a neutral NAO/AO by next week, which would allow the Pacific to exert more influence. The GFS acutally goes positive with both of them. Maybe it will be a model bias of weakening a strong -AO too quickly?

Yeah, it's a good point - the ENs from across the pond may not have the same idea as the ENs from over here.

I don't know if they are all that different - CPC (anyway) wants to pop the AO pretty quickly upward after a 3-5 day nadir minimizes by this Saturday give or take. The cluster is spread some, though.

You know ... we knew this would happen. You get a once in 300 year Sandy followed by a snow event that is also on the rarer side, occurring within 10 days of one another, and you gotta bet for an extended period of duldroms would kick in

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Yeah, it's a good point - the ENs from across the pond may not have the same idea as the ENs from over here.

I don't know if they are all that different - CPC (anyway) wants to pop the AO pretty quickly upward after a 3-5 day nadir minimizes by this Saturday give or take. The cluster is spread some, though.

You know ... we knew this would happen. You get a once in 300 year Sandy followed by a snow event that is also on the rarer side, occurring within 10 days of one another, and you gotta bet for an extended period of duldroms would kick in

And I don't see anything wrong with it, or have it signal any foreshadowing of the winter. Sure maybe it could be warmer than we thought in the first week of December, but it never looked to start out with a bang to begin with. It does seem like we could become more favorable into the second week and perhaps a great third week heading towards Christmas...granted that's far out.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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And I don't see anything wrong with it, or have it signal any foreshadowing of the winter. Sure maybe it could be warmer than we thought in the first week of December, but it never looked to start out with a bang to begin with. It does seem like we could become more favorable into the second week and perhaps a great third week heading towards Christmas...granted that's far out.

Right, I think back - the weather went benign and did almost nothing after the Jan 26-28 Cleveland Superbomb, and the Blizzard of '78 for both the GL and NE areas. Those two events and anything leading up to defined the winter that year. In 1986 there was "The ZYZYGY Storm", I think it was '86. Weeks of benign inactivity settled in - in fact I wonder if it even snowed much at all after that. The ZYZYGY storm was a HUGE hit for Middlesex County and eastern ORH - there was a band of 18-22" there. That storm was awesome. Giant parachutes that never went over to rain falling at 1/8th visibility. The storm didn't do much in the MA and the coast was spared if memory serves, which is why it probably doesn't get remembered. I remember the night before the storm the air smelled like rain actually. Interesting.

Anyway, Harv and I used to discuss how in a holistic sense it was almost as though the atmosphere needs time to recharge after putting out so much power. Whether that's true or not and can be shown physically aside, there's definitely a correlation between big events and subsequent quiescence.

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HM

HM

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Posted

Right, I think back - the weather went benign and did almost nothing after the Jan 26-28 Cleveland Superbomb, and the Blizzard of '78 for both the GL and NE areas. Those two events and anything leading up to defined the winter that year. In 1986 there was "The ZYZYGY Storm", I think it was '86. Weeks of benign inactivity settled in - in fact I wonder if it even snowed much at all after that. The ZYZYGY storm was a HUGE hit for Middlesex County and eastern ORH - there was a band of 18-22" there. That storm was awesome. Giant parachutes that never went over to rain falling at 1/8th visibility. The storm didn't do much in the MA and the coast was spared if memory serves, which is why it probably doesn't get remembered. I remember the night before the storm the air smelled like rain actually. Interesting.

Anyway, Harv and I used to discuss how in a holistic sense it was almost as though the atmosphere needs time to recharge after putting out so much power. Whether that's true or not and can be shown physically aside, there's definitely a correlation between big events and subsequent quiescence.

Perception. When something as anomalous as Sandy happens or an early season snowfall, big KU storm in winter etc. all the surrounding calendar dates will obviously be quieter. The amount of days to the next event that affects someone significantly will always be arbitrary and therefore is perception.

Jan 96 blizzard was followed by another nor'easter and came after a string of December nor'easters too and then an insane warm up and flood episode followed by more bitter cold in Feb....

I'll stop there. The point is: I can define a time and an event arbitrarily and then make statements about "energy in the atmosphere and recharging" too just as much as I can say the opposite (95-96).

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Right, I think back - the weather went benign and did almost nothing after the Jan 26-28 Cleveland Superbomb, and the Blizzard of '78 for both the GL and NE areas. Those two events and anything leading up to defined the winter that year. In 1986 there was "The ZYZYGY Storm", I think it was '86. Weeks of benign inactivity settled in - in fact I wonder if it even snowed much at all after that. The ZYZYGY storm was a HUGE hit for Middlesex County and eastern ORH - there was a band of 18-22" there. That storm was awesome. Giant parachutes that never went over to rain falling at 1/8th visibility. The storm didn't do much in the MA and the coast was spared if memory serves, which is why it probably doesn't get remembered. I remember the night before the storm the air smelled like rain actually. Interesting.

Anyway, Harv and I used to discuss how in a holistic sense it was almost as though the atmosphere needs time to recharge after putting out so much power. Whether that's true or not and can be shown physically aside, there's definitely a correlation between big events and subsequent quiescence.

What the heck is ZYZYGY?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

You can actually see the Euro starting to raise heights off the WC at the end of the run...I know its the NZucker 240 hour OP, but it actually sort of fits what the ensembles try and do. You can see the base of the GOA trough retrograding decently west by the end of the run out to a position S of the Aleutians. If that happened, that would really get a +PNA going.

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