On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter

[weathafella]

Gradient pattern clear as day. As we move deeper into December, more of us will be on the sweet side of the gradient.

[moneypitmike]

Nice burst of snow this morning. With that coming down and the heavy overcast sky, you'd think it was the start of a nice storm. Alas......

32/25

[moneypitmike]

Coldest morning this fall here, 15.3F

Nickel and dime season is here...

0.75" at home at 5am when I left (just enough to cover the grass blades that started poking through yesterday afternoon).

In the 1-2" range now at the ski resort and snowing pretty good all the sudden.

Burlington looks to be getting a nice burst now, too.

Fast flow boredom but the daily 30% chance of snow showers this time of year never fails.

Congrats!

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd be careful about thinking its gonna be frolick in the 50's from Sunday- Wed next week. Signs of sneaky HP

[weatherMA]

Did the EC have the weekend snow?

[forkyfork]

how off the rails is ctblizz going to be when nj gets 2-4" and he gets a coating?

[TalcottWx]

New terminal C @ Logan for jetblue is friggin beautiful

[ctsnowstorm628]

Did the EC have the weekend snow?

Nope. Had some over running rain for NNE at h168. Meh

[OSUmetstud]

some windex squall potential on wednesday evening, especially in CNE.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Ice on the smaller ponds around work this AM.

[dryslot]

Did the EC have the weekend snow?

The Euro is a furnace with that system

[CoastalWx]

I suppose the interior could watch a little -SN or mix this weekend, but the euro is pretty blah with this.

[HM]

It's pretty telling when you look away from the indices and just look at the H5 orientation. Yeah you have a -WPO, -AO...etc..but the orientation is not ideal at all. The trough near AK and into Canada just causes a zonal expressway across the CONUS. I know you know this...but for those out there..how do you break this? Well get the PAC to retro and pump up a little +PNA ridge to shut down the PAC jet. Or, get a little -NAO going. I also don't see a ton of help from the tropics, but they aren't really hurting us either. The MJO while sort of favorable is weak..so I'm not sure it's in a hurry to break it down. I like the mid Dec time too...it just seems like the timeframe (IMHO) is probabbly near or after the 10th for anything sustained and meaningful. Maybe we can sneak something in after the 6th or 7th.

Also, I think if it were 3 weeks from now, the gradient would be further south. Expansive snowcover leading to a fight with warmer air intruding is one reason. The CONUS is pretty bare right now...climo obviously.

The Pacific-North American Sector was originally suppose to have shorter wavelengths with more amplitude as the NAO / EPO blocks forced the pattern. But the Pacific ideas of retrogression were always there and that mid-December they would pop a PNA. The entire period becomes interesting through 12/20 in New England and the temperatures across the CONUS certainly look like a MJO phase 1-2-3 transition in December IMO. I really don't think things are that bad.

Dec 5-10 period of retrogression offers potential for some type of a New England event, possibly a coastal transfer. Assuming the SE ridge tries to come back at the end of the month to battle the -AO regime, you could see another threat Dec 15-18 before the trough retrogrades into the Midwest.

The big question at that point is: when will the stratosphere really let us have it?

[CoastalWx]

The Pacific-North American Sector was originally suppose to have shorter wavelengths with more amplitude as the NAO / EPO blocks forced the pattern. But the Pacific ideas of retrogression were always there and that mid-December they would pop a PNA. The entire period becomes interesting through 12/20 in New England and the temperatures across the CONUS certainly look like a MJO phase 1-2-3 transition in December IMO. I really don't think things are that bad.

Dec 5-10 period of retrogression offers potential for some type of a New England event, possibly a coastal transfer. Assuming the SE ridge tries to come back at the end of the month to battle the -AO regime, you could see another threat Dec 15-18 before the trough retrogrades into the Midwest.

The big question at that point is: when will the stratosphere really let us have it?

Then or now? It looks pretty hostile next week, but that's not an indictment of the month by any means...just probably a burp.....hopefully.

The stratosphere does seem to look favorable..with your wave 1 response coming up, but I couldn't say how the impacts would manifest.

[OSUmetstud]

The Pacific-North American Sector was originally suppose to have shorter wavelengths with more amplitude as the NAO / EPO blocks forced the pattern. But the Pacific ideas of retrogression were always there and that mid-December they would pop a PNA. The entire period becomes interesting through 12/20 in New England and the temperatures across the CONUS certainly look like a MJO phase 1-2-3 transition in December IMO. I really don't think things are that bad.

Dec 5-10 period of retrogression offers potential for some type of a New England event, possibly a coastal transfer. Assuming the SE ridge tries to come back at the end of the month to battle the -AO regime, you could see another threat Dec 15-18 before the trough retrogrades into the Midwest.

The big question at that point is: when will the stratosphere really let us have it?

10 out of 13 years that had strong blocking late in November (-3 or greater in the dailies) had strong February mean AO blocking (-1.26 average for all 13). 5 out of 13 did average a positive December AO, however.

[HM]

Then or now? It looks pretty hostile next week, but that's not an indictment of the month by any means...just probably a burp.....hopefully.

I meant in our whole transition into mid-December for New England.

I'm sure I'm going to hit 60+ with some of these warm shots but I wasn't really expecting a cold/snowy start to December anyway. I suppose that's my point.

[HM]

10 out of 13 years that had strong blocking late in November (-3 or greater in the dailies) had strong February mean AO blocking (-1.26 average for all 13). 5 out of 13 did average a positive December AO, however.

Yes but when did they typically start?

My feeling is that after a New Years' break, cold returns in the second week of January through early February.

[OSUmetstud]

Yes but when did they typically start?

My feeling is that after a New Years' break, cold returns in the second week of January through early February.

Don't know...I'd have to look at the dailies...but most of the time it appears it started in January sometime. 11 out of 13 had decent January blocking, too. The average was lower for all 13, -1.40.

[OSUmetstud]

I'm putting Scott on suicide watch.

What kind of midwest trough are we talking about HM? One that is favorable for lake-effect?

[CoastalWx]

I meant in our whole transition into mid-December for New England.

I'm sure I'm going to hit 60+ with some of these warm shots but I wasn't really expecting a cold/snowy start to December anyway. I suppose that's my point.

Oh I agree...December was looking kind of blah to start out, but I don't think it foreshadows the month by any means.

I know people joke about my caution flag..lol, but I suppose my one concern is the timing of this whole shift from a less than favorable pattern, to something more favorable. Things don't seem in a rush to break down as modeled, but on the other hand, I like the -WPO and -AO. I think with time it will turn favorable...but you know people will be antsy and posting about how the pattern sucks. It's just how it works.

BTW, this probably should be in the other thread. Sorry.

[CoastalWx]

In response to HM.

Oh I agree...December was looking kind of blah to start out, but I don't think it foreshadows the month by any means.

I know people joke about my caution flag..lol, but I suppose my one concern is the timing of this whole shift from a less than favorable pattern, to something more favorable. Things don't seem in a rush to break down as modeled, but on the other hand, I like the -WPO and -AO. I think with time it will turn favorable...but you know people will be antsy and posting about how the pattern sucks. It's just how it works.

[HM]

Don't know...I'd have to look at the dailies...but most of the time it appears it started in January sometime. 11 out of 13 had decent January blocking, too. The average was lower for all 13, -1.40.

Thanks man.

Based on the stratosphere, Tropics etc. I'm thinking mid-January could be the harshest in terms of snow/cold for us for the entire winter, but I'll come back to this possibility in the next few days.

[CoastalWx]

I'm putting Scott on suicide watch.

What kind of midwest trough are we talking about HM? One that is favorable for lake-effect?

LOL, I'm fine...but its CTBlizz who might need it if he expected winter to start endlessly on 11/25.

[cycloneslurry]

Yes but when did they typically start?

My feeling is that after a New Years' break, cold returns in the second week of January through early February.

Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous.

[weathafella]

Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous.

Put everyone on ignore and stick it up your arse.

[CoastalWx]

Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous.

Again I think it comes with comprehension issues, words like "could" and "I could see" aren't exactly a concrete forecast. People talk about favorable indices, but usually the common caveats apply. It also gets muddied by weenies calling for endless winters and other weenies calling for busts. If you have questions..ask instead of assume.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous.

[OSUmetstud]

Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous.

I'm not sure you can even hold HM's jock strap.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looking at the layout of the operational means for the late middle to extended range - it does look like the -AO is being unfair though. Nice SPVs situated around the hemisphere with positive geopotential anomalies polarward are noted; yet an anomalous positive height area lingers in the TV and OV areas relative to all. Although weakly negative is the PNA, it seems like the runs are taking liberties with it in keeping the wave length so long over the CONUS but eh ...

That is a classic butt-bangin' right there. Hopefully it doesn't verify too well and the distribution is more even in the end, otherwise, whether folks have their heads around it or not, it will will get warm from D5-10; how much so, who knows.

[HM]

Why are so many people actually trying to predict what is going to happen in mid-january...It is clear that no one is even able to even come close to accurately predicting one week in advance. If you check in on this board every day...you will get a different winter outlook literally every couple hours. A few days ago everyone on here were talking about historic -NAO, moderate snowstorms, and a long cold winter getting established...and now it is the exact opposite only 48 hours...how "long will the torch last" we may see some cold "after new year's" this type of swings in forecasts is getting a bit ridiculous.

You quote me but ask questions with general wording like "people" and then make the inherently wrong but classic statement of "we can't even forecast one week" argument. So what exactly do you want me to do here? Am I suppose to defend my record? Tell you it's going to be okay and it will snow? Explain to you the difference between 1 week forecasts and long range trends?

So let's start from the beginning, is the question to me or do you want some sort of philosophical answer for why people try to predict what will happen in mid-January? I think the first thing you should do is slow down and actually know what is being said from whichever poster you're reading.