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On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter


weathafella

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Yeah I know you get it. Like Will said, people I think forget exactly how tough it is for climo in their region right now. It likely stems from last year and people just want to " get it on" so to speak. As much as it sucks missing a storm to the south....it looked like this month was going by the way of the torch a month ago and look where we are. I know it has been dry, but not because of a Bering Sea vortex torching the country.

Climo is non-factor to many it seems. Which like Will also said, is surprising for the dynamic of people who really enjoy following weather. But yeah it's a combo of getting off to a slow start last winter...well, there wasn't really a "start" at all :lol: ...and the winters from 2007-08 to 2010-11 getting off to relatively fast starts for several in my region. Skews climo perception.

This November will be the third straight below normal month here at LAF. If that doesn't signal there's been a change from the previous 12+ months, well I'm not sure what will. Dryness, yeah November has been a bore here too. But we were deep deep into drought by June here in Indiana. And then proceeded to essentially wipe it out in August, September, and October. Here's to hoping activity picks up again sometime soon.

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Climo is non-factor to many it seems. Which like Will also said, is surprising for the dynamic of people who really enjoy following weather. But yeah it's a combo of getting off to a slow start last winter...well, there wasn't really a "start" at all laugh.png ...and the winters from 2007-08 to 2010-11 getting off to relatively fast starts for several in my region. Skews climo perception.

This November will be the third straight below normal month here at LAF. If that doesn't signal there's been a change from the previous 12+ months, well I'm not sure what will. Dryness, yeah November has been a bore here too. But we were deep deep into drought by June here in Indiana. And then proceeded to essentially wipe it out in August, September, and October. Here's to hoping activity picks up again sometime soon.

I have to echo your "preaching to the choir" comment Tim! We have a lot of weather hobbyists in our subforum who are really good guys but so many of them dont seem to understand climo and how it works! In the 4 years from 07-08 to 10-11, dtw accumulated 80" more snow than climo. And I still remember some complaints. Then last year, we got 17" less than climo, and people act like winter disappeared. Do the math...thats STILL an accumulated surplus of over 60" in 5 years. Sometimes I feel like you and I trying to be the voice of reason gets so repetitive but Im sorry, its November! And even last year...our region still got several snowfalls. Everytime it happened "well its pretty out but itll be gone by Friday" or "figures we get snow ahead of a torch". What the hell happened to ENJOYING the weather?

I feel that climo snow geeks like you, me, ORH, etc..we are in the 1%. It feels like right off the bat, 70% of the general public doesnt like snow. "when does spring start?".."i hate shoveling".."i wouldnt mind it if i could sit at home all day" blah blah blah. Of the 30% who do, 20% (2/3) merely are snowlovers who dont get into weather hardcore like us. My mom texted me this morning "it snowed! how much did we get?". She LOVES snow, but wouldn't understand a thing if I showed her, say, an ensemble map. And had it been a big storm, she wouldnt be worrying that this city got more than us or whatever, she'd just enjoy it. Then you have the 10%...the ones who love snow AND are weather hobbyists. But 9 of the 10% have a very pessimisitic, worrysome approach and tend to ignore climo, even if they say they don't. So then you have people like us...the 1%!

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Climo is non-factor to many it seems. Which like Will also said, is surprising for the dynamic of people who really enjoy following weather. But yeah it's a combo of getting off to a slow start last winter...well, there wasn't really a "start" at all laugh.png ...and the winters from 2007-08 to 2010-11 getting off to relatively fast starts for several in my region. Skews climo perception.

This November will be the third straight below normal month here at LAF. If that doesn't signal there's been a change from the previous 12+ months, well I'm not sure what will. Dryness, yeah November has been a bore here too. But we were deep deep into drought by June here in Indiana. And then proceeded to essentially wipe it out in August, September, and October. Here's to hoping activity picks up again sometime soon.

This x 1,000!!!

Reasons why i just totally avoid that forum anymore. It is the same few who has ruined it for the past couple of seasons. Thus the problem. The problem ones get started and then others follow in their foot steps and boom the thread etc turns into a disaster. Besides what i post in the main wx forum i just mainly sit back and read this great thread and the other great winter thread they have in this forum. And yes guys i have very much enjoyed the discussions in this forum. Here is to hoping all gets buried this winter! snowing3.gif

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This x 1,000!!!

Reasons why i just totally avoid that forum anymore. It is the same few who has ruined it for the past couple of seasons. Thus the problem. The problem ones get started and then others follow in their foot steps and boom the thread etc turns into a disaster. Besides what i post in the main wx forum i just mainly sit back and read this great thread and the other great winter thread they have in this forum. And yes guys i have very much enjoyed the discussions in this forum. Here is to hoping all gets buried this winter! snowing3.gif

Harry you have always been one of my favorite posters, post here often, Ginx
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But completely uncalled for. It's November. That is reality check number 1. Number 2 will be the mild up coming after this weekend. Again talked about for over a week now here. Dancing days will be here after the 10th. Maybe a little earlier.

I agree with everything that has been said here about people complaining too early. However, in defense of people like Toronto blizzard, it's been very different up in Ontario than in the states. I could be wrong, but October was something like the 16th consecutive above average month for the southern Ontario region. November might finish average at best, maybe slightly below. 2009-2010 was a mild and dry winter for southern ontario, in stark contrast to the US and western Europe. 2011-12 was the warmest winter ever recorded in Toronto, and bear in mind that Toronto has records going back to 1839. There has been a deffinite warming trend in southern Ontario the past decade or two, with 2008-2009 being a notable exception (2007-2008, while very snowy, was also mild overall). I am not saying this man-made warming - it could simply be a quirk of nature - but Canada has warmed a lot more than the US in recent decades.

This, therefore, I think is the souce of despair in posters such as Toronto Blizzard. He likely fears that his forum name is fast becoming an oxymoron.

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The winds have picked up a bit which also introduces mixing.

Yep that's what I was thinking the culprit was gusting past 10 now. Snowmaker back off with only a couple inches down. Horrible efficiency tonight...had high hopes. Originally forecast low of 22 with a corrected to 27 and even that may he high now. Has happened the last 3 nights.

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Yep that's what I was thinking the culprit was gusting past 10 now. Snowmaker back off with only a couple inches down. Horrible efficiency tonight...had high hopes. Originally forecast low of 22 with a corrected to 27 and even that may he high now. Has happened the last 3 nights.

I only got to 31 last night and 32 here now. Winds have kept it up a bit, but the temps would free fall if it went calm.

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