snowman21 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 If this winter blows at least we'll have severe wx season to look forward too. Excellent use of sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Torontoblizzard just jumped from the CN tower. Just a weenie being a weenie but i cant blame him, "Winter" in our region has been absent for the past few years so all this insanity is getting to his head lmao. He's jumping the warm wagon too fast though, haha I think the second week and third week of December will be interesting across the East, in fact the pattern shown to "develop' on the models in the coming weeks reminds me of 2008 and with the MJO possibly forecasted to propagate to phases 3-4 later in December we may end the month with a thaw, like 2008? hmph. But if we can maintain the cold and snow cover across Western Canada this may bode well for January and February, agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I do agree that we will get more favorable after the 10th or so. I think before then it will be mild for at least a few days here. Zonal PAC flow FTL. I have no idea about Jan and Feb but if you believe the longer range signals, it could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Looks like last winter. Honestly I think we're headed for a DEC 2001,2006,2011 combo FTL We're calling you home. Don't be afraid, let it all out here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38040-winter-1213-complaint-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 We're calling you home. Don't be afraid, let it all out here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38040-winter-1213-complaint-thread/ Shove about 3 weenies in your mouth with that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Shove about 3 weenies in your mouth with that thread. Sad isn't it? But it will hopefully keep the riff raff out of the actual weather discussion in my sub-forum. It's ugly in there right now. Ug-ly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 They'll be one or two days where your scrawny arm will be hanging out the window of the pick up truck. Lock it. No days above 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I do agree that we will get more favorable after the 10th or so. I think before then it will be mild for at least a few days here. Zonal PAC flow FTL. I have no idea about Jan and Feb but if you believe the longer range signals, it could be fun. Yeah this zonal Pacific flow is what's really killing us right now. Eventually though this should weaken and once this occurs I would think we see the NAO really control the pattern much more. At least all the signals are leading to a solid -NAO period...if we were seeing signals suggesting a +NAO I'd be much more worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 No days above 45 I'll take that bet. They'll be at least one, even for your sub 1000' azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 KFALLS has learned nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'll take that bet. They'll be at least one, even for your sub 1000' azz. Its dirty.. Filthy even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I do agree that we will get more favorable after the 10th or so. I think before then it will be mild for at least a few days here. Zonal PAC flow FTL. I have no idea about Jan and Feb but if you believe the longer range signals, it could be fun. The cold looks to build nicely across the West from now till the 10th and once the zonal flow breaks this cold should spill nicely across the East and if the AO and NAO can maintain their negative state then it could be interesting. But between the 10th and the 25th i believe things will be wintry across the East with a possibly active STJ and favorable MJO phases. Well in other years a nice built up snow cover across the West and persistent cold temperatures boded well for the East in the Winter months as the cold duration persisted longer. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Sad isn't it? But it will hopefully keep the riff raff out of the actual weather discussion in my sub-forum. It's ugly in there right now. Ug-ly. But completely uncalled for. It's November. That is reality check number 1. Number 2 will be the mild up coming after this weekend. Again talked about for over a week now here. Dancing days will be here after the 10th. Maybe a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'll take that bet. They'll be at least one, even for your sub 1000' azz. I think we see some spots tickle 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Hey Will, how good is your AO knowledge? I see the GFS is shooting it down to about -3.5 in the ensemble mean around Dec. 1st. Has a winter ever averaged postive after dipping so low in the daily? Don't know about dailies, but in the research I did for my winter outlook, there is a 67% positive correlation w/ AO modality from Nov to DJF and 85% positive correlation for Dec to DJF. A negative AO, especially strongly so in early December, gives us a very good chance for a DJF averaged negative AO. Similar statistics for the NAO. The correlation is 89% from Dec to DJF. I would be very surprised if we positive for either the AO or NAO for DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The cold looks to build nicely across the West from now till the 10th and once the zonal flow breaks this cold should spill nicely across the East and if the AO and NAO can maintain their negative state then it could be interesting. But between the 10th and the 25th i believe things will be wintry across the East with a possibly active STJ and favorable MJO phases. Well in other years a nice built up snow cover across the West and persistent cold temperatures boded well for the East in the Winter months as the cold duration persisted longer. Lets see. I think many of us mets agree. The 2 week period before Christmas holds promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Its dirty.. Filthy even It will be for a chunk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Don't know about dailies, but in the research I did for my winter outlook, there is a 67% positive correlation w/ AO modality from Nov to DJF and 85% positive correlation for Dec to DJF. A negative AO, especially strongly so in early December, gives us a very good chance for a DJF averaged negative AO. Similar statistics for the NAO. The correlation is 89% from Dec to DJF. I would be very surprised if we positive for either the AO or NAO for DJF. One thing I have "issues" with for averages, especially over a prolonged period is anomalous values can really skew the data. I also have issues with monthly values...one thing I've been wanting to do forever is construct weekly or biweekly readings for all of the indices, however, I just don't know how I'd do this. I've found daily numbers for some of the indices but I would like to know the exact math that is used to construct the monthly values from the dailies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 But completely uncalled for. It's November. That is reality check number 1. Number 2 will be the mild up coming after this weekend. Again talked about for over a week now here. Dancing days will be here after the 10th. Maybe a little earlier. You're preaching to the choir here man. But there is no reasoning with some in my sub-forum. Always been that way. Anyways, hopefully some good times for all after this mild period in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 But completely uncalled for. It's November. That is reality check number 1. Number 2 will be the mild up coming after this weekend. Again talked about for over a week now here. Dancing days will be here after the 10th. Maybe a little earlier. A much larger percentage of the forum has poor knowledge of climo than it should be considering they are naturally interested in weather and reading threads on here. Some people think we should be getting SECS/MECS threats by the first week of December on a regular basis. Nevermind that even in the interior at 1,000 feet the average high is still over 40F in early December. Average snowfall by December 10th here is about 5.5". Imagine what climo is for weenies who complain south of here and/or at much lower elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 The funny thing is, the CFS weeklies have the second half of December rocking big time. Just a hellacious pattern the week of 12/3 tipping the month for the model. But it probably is in no way taking into account the potential filth of the relaxation coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 They'll be one or two days where your scrawny arm will be hanging out the window of the pick up truck. Lock it. lol... I don't think its right, but the 18z GFS has no less than 4 rain events between now and Monday the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 KFALLS has learned nothing. KURO Joe, Kuro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 KURO Joe, Kuro Yeah to this day no one on this board has any idea what he means by that word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 28.9F here... clear... calm(er). Wind has finally died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The good part is its the time of year when the normal rules don't apply... sun angle is so low and inconsequential...poor mixing and hard to get a normal dry adiabatic rate, so the warmth a loft doesn't translate as much to the surface. It won't be bad unless it precipitates. Seasonably mild weather (nothing near record setting) is fine...wasting away lots of precipitation in the form of rain events would be a bummer. Hopefully the dry pattern continues through the cool up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah to this day no one on this board has any idea what he means by that word Lmao agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah to this day no one on this board has any idea what he means by that word Probably has an L Where there needs to be an I.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 You're preaching to the choir here man. But there is no reasoning with some in my sub-forum. Always been that way. Anyways, hopefully some good times for all after this mild period in early December. Yeah I know you get it. Like Will said, people I think forget exactly how tough it is for climo in their region right now. It likely stems from last year and people just want to " get it on" so to speak. As much as it sucks missing a storm to the south....it looked like this month was going by the way of the torch a month ago and look where we are. I know it has been dry, but not because of a Bering Sea vortex torching the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Live snowmaking feed Www.tinychat.com/chrismsnowmaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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