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On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter


weathafella

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It really is. You hear people sometimes say how seasons like winter seem to have a theme. While it may sound like some sort of weird Farmers Almanac logic, there is truth behind it. It's all on how things are teleconnected.

Yeah, in general, big ridge poleward in the Bering Straight/AK region means we over perform on cold....big vortex there and we tend to end up warmer than progged.

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It really is. You hear people sometimes say how seasons like winter seem to have a theme. While it may sound like some sort of weird Farmers Almanac logic, there is truth behind it. It's all on how things are teleconnected.

Maybe it's age but sometimes you can just get a feeling from a lot of combination of senses, like I have been saying the difference this year was palatable.
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Yeah, in general, big ridge poleward in the Bering Straight/AK region means we over perform on cold....big vortex there and we tend to end up warmer than progged.

Yeah and not just cold or warmth either. Sometimes like in Jan 2005...storms are timed just right in something not favorable like a +NAO, whereas last year you knew everything would cut NW. In some years it will just snow whenever it has the chance..other years it's pulling teeth. Like you said..it goes back to the large scale features.

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Maybe it's age but sometimes you can just get a feeling from a lot of combination of senses, like I have been saying the difference this year was palatable.

As far as this year goes, it's totally different for sure. We started getting that sense later in September and October when the vortex finally started shifting.

I think the next three weeks or so will be important. I think after mid December, we should be able to gather some ideas about the following 8-12 weeks or so. I understand things can change, but usually we can see how things are lining up by then.

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This is the type of flow that used to make me want to swallow a pistol in Ithaca....Northern Cortland county just to our NE gets hammered with 1-2" per hour stuff while we are stuck with weenie flakes in ITH

lol

Fresh couple of inches just north and East of there in Old Forge.

http://www.oldforgeny.com/web.html

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This is the type of flow that used to make me want to swallow a pistol in Ithaca....Northern Cortland county just to our NE gets hammered with 1-2" per hour stuff while we are stuck with weenie flakes in ITH

29ynq0n.jpg

We used to go to this bar in Cortland ostensibly to pick up ladies (now old bags...lol) but I wanted the flakes.

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26/15. Nice sunrise.

Stepped outside to get some wood in just a t-shirt and shorts and that cold breeze got my attention. lol

It is chilly. Just walked down to the beaver pond. Wind is really hampering the freezing. While it froze up nicely during similar temps over the last couple days (before largely melting during the last few), the wind-rippled surface is really struggly beyond the first 20-30 yards (eye-balling, the whole pond is about 300 yards across).

I just installed an elevation app on my phone. I was suprised to see it shows the ponds elevation about 240' lower than the house. I guess it's the same verticle drop as other directions, but not quite as steep as it is via the road.

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Well--time to abandon the pinned thread and return to the banter one.

wintry chill this morning--25/15, wind chill currently 17.

Yep.Based on the 0z runs I'm out of the ballgame as well (not really sure I was ever in it). OTOH it gives me some more time to delay the final raking of the yard.

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