CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro ensembles trended stronger with the -NAO. Back to keeping a boundary draped over SNE during the flood of PAC air. It's been back and forth with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 folks, the deck is white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro ensembles seem to have a number of ensemble members more amped and closer to the coast than the op run. Good signal for advisory snows IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro ensembles trended stronger with the -NAO. Back to keeping a boundary draped over SNE during the flood of PAC air. It's been back and forth with this feature. I wonder how much that has to do with our initial storm becoming more amplified? Yesterday's 12z OP GFS had that ridiculous -NAO during the awful PAC as well. I think if we can get that strong -NAO, then there might still be a storm threat in the Dec 6-8 period when the PNA begins spiking. If not, we'll have to wait a tad longer when the regime becomes more established. Should be fun either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 are temps gonna drop fast tonite or is it a gradual stepdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Great pattern on the Euro esnembles after the 5th or 6th of Dec. The torch isn't very impressive on this ensemble run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Great pattern on the Euro esnembles after the 5th or 6th of Dec. The torch isn't very impressive on this ensemble run either. Nice +PNA ridging as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Just trying this out. First smartphone ever. Super windy today and temp dropped like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Just trying this out. First smartphone ever. Super windy today and temp dropped like a rock. The wind is going to ruin my snowmaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 second snow shower of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 snowing on and off the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Grass is whitened (pavement is blown clear) with some decent showers/squally type things. 30.8/20. Nippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 You might have missed it because Adam buried it in the Med range thread but Donnie Baseball hitting them out to all fields. Snowfall should return to near normal figures for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England regions. Unlike last winter, the potential exists for a Kocin-Uccellini-type snowstorm at some point during the winter on account of the blockiness. • A blocky winter with the potential for several extended periods of substantial blocking (AO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 home snowmaker is spinning up in a couple of minutes, I would do a live feed but it gets too dark for the laptop camera to pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 On a side note, tomorrow will probably feel rather chilly with mid to high level clouds moving in. MAV MOS still seems a little warm, but it did cool off from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 really hoping the snow showers in the berks survive as they move towards here maybe coat the ground quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 New PNC for ORH says I make my -2. 3 call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 New PNC for ORH says I make my -2. 3 call I thought you said -2.1? With today's high, I still think that is tough to do in 6 days...but more power to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 New PNC for ORH says I make my -2. 3 call I don't think so...its going to be cold...but here is what I have: Currently -9 cumulative on the month when divided 23 gives us the current -0.4F....today looks like a 0 once we reach the final numbers around midnight. Tomorrow looks like a -8, Monday -4, Tuesday -4, Wednesday -4, Thursday -9, Friday -11. That gives us a total of -49 on the month. Which would be about -1.6F. If we can get like a -15 for Thursday and Friday (which is still possible, esp if we have snow cover) then we could make -2 but its tough. Definitely darn cold to end the month though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Snow shower here in East Killingly, looks cool on the security camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 snowing pretty good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I don't think so...its going to be cold...but here is what I have: Currently -9 cumulative on the month when divided 23 gives us the current -0.4F....today looks like a 0 once we reach the final numbers around midnight. Tomorrow looks like a -8, Monday -4, Tuesday -4, Wednesday -4, Thursday -9, Friday -11. That gives us a total of -49 on the month. Which would be about -1.6F. If we can get like a -15 for Thursday and Friday (which is still possible, esp if we have snow cover) then we could make -2 but its tough. Definitely darn cold to end the month though. I did say -2.1 sorry Scooter typo. I figured if you average 28.35 from today on you would make it/ Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Snow shower here in East Killingly, looks cool on the security camera nice hopefully at my house too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Downslope..........ftl here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 woww solid moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I did say -2.1 sorry Scooter typo. I figured if you average 28.35 from today on you would make it/ Will Maybe my math is wrong ORH average according to last year is a sum of 2418/60 or 40.3 degrees. I guessed a final number of 2292/60 or 38.2 Currently the sum is 1895/46 or 41.2 . So 2292-1895 = 397/14 means for my numbers to be right you would need to be at a 28.35 average for the next 7 days, current PNC is 444/14 or 31.7. Based on PNC then a MTD sum of 1895 plus 444 remaining would yield a sum of 2339/60 or 38.9 or a -1.4 for the month. I am guessing on snow cover and radiation and lower daily highs to knock 3.35 per day. tall order I know just think the air masses are colder and with any snow cover with a CAA regime ORH might be much colder than PNC indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Maybe my math is wrong ORH average according to last year is a sum of 2418/60 or 40.3 degrees. I guessed a final number of 2292/60 or 38.2 Currently the sum is 1895/46 or 41.2 . So 2292-1895 = 397/14 means for my numbers to be right you would need to be at a 28.35 average for the next 7 days, current PNC is 444/14 or 31.7. Based on PNC then a MTD sum of 1895 plus 444 remaining would yield a sum of 2339/60 or 38.9 or a -1.4 for the month. I am guessing on snow cover and radiation and lower daily highs to knock 3.35 per day. tall order I know just think the air masses are colder and with any snow cover with a CAA regime ORH might be much colder than PNC indicates. Yeah ORH will be really cold Thursday and Friday if we get fresh snow cover and the CAA behind the storm. Its possible they put up highs in the upper 20s rather than 32-33F...and lows in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 A nice dish of long range humble pie as of late. Never did I think November would be putting up these negative numbers. Also a little less impressive.....but I didn't think this next "event" would be so far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 A nice dish of long range humble pie as of late. Never did I think November would be putting up these negative numbers. Also a little less impressive.....but I didn't think this next "event" would be so far SE. Yeah its been like the opposite of last year when the warmth kept overperforming versus the LR look. I mean the LR never looked great, but we had periods where we thought we might be normal with some snow threats but it turned out we just torched instead. This year its been muted torches and the cold has over performed. Its weird how that works sometimes. Even in the warm month of October that one cold shot really over performed when we got record lows at MQE and BDL and near record lows at ORH...BOS getting their earliest 35F reading since 1993. Hopefully its a good sign going forward and that this will be the personality of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yeah its been like the opposite of last year when the warmth kept overperforming versus the LR look. I mean the LR never looked great, but we had periods where we thought we might be normal with some snow threats but it turned out we just torched instead. This year its been muted torches and the cold has over performed. Its weird how that works sometimes. Even in the warm month of October that one cold shot really over performed when we got record lows at MQE and BDL and near record lows at ORH...BOS getting their earliest 35F reading since 1993. Hopefully its a good sign going forward and that this will be the personality of this winter. It really is. You hear people sometimes say how seasons like winter seem to have a theme. While it may sound like some sort of weird Farmers Almanac logic, there is truth behind it. It's all on how things are teleconnected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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